Multi-year-to-decadal climate prediction is a key tool in understanding the range of potential regional and global climate futures. Here, we present a framework that combines machine learning and analog forecasting for predictions on these timescales. A neural network is used to learn a mask, specific to a region and lead time, with global weights based on relative importance as precursors to the evolution of that prediction target. A library of mask-weighted model states, or potential analogs, are then compared to a single mask-weighted observational state. The known future of the best matching potential analogs serve as the prediction for the future of the observational state. We match and predict 2-meter temperature using the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset for observations, and a set of CMIP6 models as the analog library. We find improved performance over traditional analog methods and initialized decadal predictions.

ICESat-2 (IS2) by NASA is an Earth-observing satellite that measures high-resolution surface elevation. The IS2's ATL07 and ATL10 sea ice elevation and freeboard products of 10m-200m segments which aggregated 150 signal photons from the raw ATL03 (geolocated photon) data. These aggregated products can potentially overestimate local sea surface height, thus underestimating the calculations of freeboard (sea ice height above sea surface). To achieve a higher resolution of sea surface height and freeboard information, in this work we utilize a 2m window to resample the ATL03 data. Then, we classify these 2m segments into thick sea ice, thin ice, and open water using deep learning methods (Long short-term memory and Multi-layer perceptron models). To obtain labeled training data for our deep learning models, we use segmented Sentinel-2 (S2) multi-spectral imagery overlapping with IS2 tracks in space and time to auto-label IS2 data, followed by some manual corrections in the regions of transition between different ice/water types or cloudy regions. We employ a parallel workflow for this auto-labeling using PySpark to scale, and we achieve 9-fold data loading and 16.25-fold map-reduce speedup. To train our models, we employ a Horovod-based distributed deep-learning workflow on a DGX A100 8 GPU cluster, achieving a 7.25-fold speedup. Next, we calculate the local sea surface heights based on the open water segments. Finally, we scale the freeboard calculation using the derived local sea level and achieve 8.54-fold data loading and 15.7-fold map-reduce speedup. Compared with the ATL07 (local sea level) and ATL10 (freeboard) data products, our results show higher resolutions and accuracy (96.56%).

Ocean General Circulation Models require extensive computational resources to reach equilibrium states, while deep learning emulators, despite offering fast predictions, lack the physical interpretability and long-term stability necessary for climate scientists to understand climate sensitivity (to greenhouse gas emissions) and mechanisms of abrupt % variability such as tipping points. We propose to take the best from both worlds by leveraging deep generative models to produce physically consistent oceanic states that can serve as initial conditions for climate projections. We assess the viability of this hybrid approach through both physical metrics and numerical experiments, and highlight the benefits of enforcing physical constraints during generation. Although we train here on ocean variables from idealized numerical simulations, we claim that this hybrid approach, combining the computational efficiency of deep learning with the physical accuracy of numerical models, can effectively reduce the computational burden of running climate models to equilibrium, and reduce uncertainties in climate projections by minimizing drifts in baseline simulations.

The burgeoning field of foundation models necessitates advanced data processing mechanisms capable of harnessing vast valuable data with varied types utilized by these models. Nevertheless, the current landscape presents unique challenges that traditional data processing frameworks cannot handle effectively, especially with multimodal intricacies. In response, we present Data-Juicer 2.0, a new system offering fruitful data processing capabilities backed by over a hundred operators spanning various modalities like text, image, audio, and video. With seamless compatibility and dedicated optimization to popular dataset hubs like Hugging Face and computing engines like Ray, Data-Juicer 2.0 enhances its predecessor in both usability, efficiency, and programmability. It features an easily accessible user interface layer that supports decoupled Python interactions, RESTful APIs, and conversational commands. Alongside this, it contains a core runtime layer optimized for adaptive execution and management across different dataset scales, processing demands, and computational environments, while shielding unnecessary system details. Extensive empirical evaluations demonstrate Data-Juicer 2.0's remarkable performance and scalability, highlighting its capability to efficiently process tens of billions of data samples with tens of thousands of CPU cores. The system is publicly available, actively maintained, and broadly adopted in diverse research endeavors, practical applications, and real-world products such as Alibaba Cloud PAI.

AI emulators for forecasting have emerged as powerful tools that can outperform conventional numerical predictions. The next frontier is to build emulators for long climate simulations with skill across a range of spatiotemporal scales, a particularly important goal for the ocean. Our work builds a skillful global emulator of the ocean component of a state-of-the-art climate model. We emulate key ocean variables, sea surface height, horizontal velocities, temperature, and salinity, across their full depth. We use a modified ConvNeXt UNet architecture trained on multidepth levels of ocean data. We show that the ocean emulator - Samudra - which exhibits no drift relative to the truth, can reproduce the depth structure of ocean variables and their interannual variability. Samudra is stable for centuries and 150 times faster than the original ocean model. Samudra struggles to capture the correct magnitude of the forcing trends and simultaneously remains stable, requiring further work.

High-quality machine learning (ML)-ready datasets play a foundational role in developing new artificial intelligence (AI) models or fine-tuning existing models for scientific applications such as weather and climate analysis. Unfortunately, despite the growing development of new deep learning models for weather and climate, there is a scarcity of curated, pre-processed machine learning (ML)-ready datasets. Curating such high-quality datasets for developing new models is challenging particularly because the modality of the input data varies significantly for different downstream tasks addressing different atmospheric scales (spatial and temporal). Here we introduce WxC-Bench (Weather and Climate Bench), a multi-modal dataset designed to support the development of generalizable AI models for downstream use-cases in weather and climate research. WxC-Bench is designed as a dataset of datasets for developing ML-models for a complex weather and climate system, addressing selected downstream tasks as machine learning phenomenon. WxC-Bench encompasses several atmospheric processes from meso-$\beta$ (20 - 200 km) scale to synoptic scales (2500 km), such as aviation turbulence, hurricane intensity and track monitoring, weather analog search, gravity wave parameterization, and natural language report generation. We provide a comprehensive description of the dataset and also present a technical validation for baseline analysis. The dataset and code to prepare the ML-ready data have been made publicly available on Hugging Face -- https://huggingface.co/datasets/nasa-impact/WxC-Bench

Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) for numerical weather prediction (NWP) have significantly transformed atmospheric modeling. AI NWP models outperform traditional physics-based systems, such as the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), across several global metrics while requiring fewer computational resources. However, existing AI NWP models face limitations related to training datasets and timestep choices, often resulting in artifacts that reduce model performance. To address these challenges, we introduce the Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin (CREDIT) framework, developed at NSF NCAR. CREDIT provides a flexible, scalable, and user-friendly platform for training and deploying AI-based atmospheric models on high-performance computing systems. It offers an end-to-end pipeline for data preprocessing, model training, and evaluation, democratizing access to advanced AI NWP capabilities. We demonstrate CREDIT's potential through WXFormer, a novel deterministic vision transformer designed to predict atmospheric states autoregressively, addressing common AI NWP issues like compounding error growth with techniques such as spectral normalization, padding, and multi-step training. Additionally, to illustrate CREDIT's flexibility and state-of-the-art model comparisons, we train the FUXI architecture within this framework. Our findings show that both FUXI and WXFormer, trained on six-hourly ERA5 hybrid sigma-pressure levels, generally outperform IFS HRES in 10-day forecasts, offering potential improvements in efficiency and forecast accuracy. CREDIT's modular design enables researchers to explore various models, datasets, and training configurations, fostering innovation within the scientific community.

The wreck was like a bug on the wall, a jumbly shape splayed on the abyssal plain. It was noticed by a team of autonomous-underwater-vehicle operators on board a subsea exploration vessel, working at an undisclosed location in the Atlantic Ocean, about a thousand miles from the nearest shore. The analysts belonged to a small private company that specializes in deep-sea search operations; I have been asked not to name it. They were looking for something else. In the past decade, the company has helped to transform the exploration of the seabed by deploying fleets of A.U.V.s--underwater drones--which cruise in formation, mapping large areas of the ocean floor with high-definition imagery.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) addresses key limitations of large language models (LLMs), such as hallucinations and outdated knowledge, by incorporating external databases. These databases typically consult multiple sources to encompass up-to-date and various information. However, standard RAG methods often overlook the heterogeneous source reliability in the multi-source database and retrieve documents solely based on relevance, making them prone to propagating misinformation. To address this, we propose Reliability-Aware RAG (RA-RAG) which estimates the reliability of multiple sources and incorporates this information into both retrieval and aggregation processes. Specifically, it iteratively estimates source reliability and true answers for a set of queries with no labelling. Then, it selectively retrieves relevant documents from a few of reliable sources and aggregates them using weighted majority voting, where the selective retrieval ensures scalability while not compromising the performance. We also introduce a benchmark designed to reflect real-world scenarios with heterogeneous source reliability and demonstrate the effectiveness of RA-RAG compared to a set of baselines.

Its discovery 3,000 metres beneath the Antarctic ice in 2022 was nothing short of miraculous. But now, stunning images make it possible to see Ernest Shackleton's ship, Endurance, like never before. Released as part of a new documentary called Endurance, this model shows exactly what the ship would have looked like before it was lost to the ice in 1915. From plates used for the daily meals to the flare gun fired in tribute to the sinking ship, the scan reveals the minute details of life aboard Endurance. Nico Vincent, of Deep Ocean Search who developed the technology for the scan, told the BBC: 'It's absolutely fabulous.