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Active Inference for Physical AI Agents -- An Engineering Perspective

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Physical AI agents, such as robots and other embodied systems operating under tight and fluctuating resource constraints, remain far less capable than biological agents in open-ended real-world environments. This paper argues that Active Inference (AIF), grounded in the Free Energy Principle, offers a principled foundation for closing that gap. We develop this argument from first principles, following a chain from probability theory through Bayesian machine learning and variational inference to active inference and reactive message passing. From the FEP perspective, systems that maintain their structural and functional integrity over time can, under suitable assumptions, be described as minimizing variational free energy (VFE), and AIF operationalizes this by unifying perception, learning, planning, and control within a single computational objective. We show that VFE minimization is naturally realized by reactive message passing on factor graphs, where inference emerges from local, parallel computations. This realization is well matched to the constraints of physical operation, including hard deadlines, asynchronous data, fluctuating power budgets, and changing environments. Because reactive message passing is event-driven, interruptible, and locally adaptable, performance degrades gracefully under reduced resources while model structure can adjust online. We further show that, under suitable coupling and coarse-graining conditions, coupled AIF agents can be described as higher-level AIF agents, yielding a homogeneous architecture based on the same message-passing primitive across scales. Our contribution is not empirical benchmarking, but a clear theoretical and architectural case for the engineering community.


Integrative Learning of Dynamically Evolving Multiplex Graphs and Nodal Attributes Using Neural Network Gaussian Processes with an Application to Dynamic Terrorism Graphs

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Exploring the dynamic co-evolution of multiplex graphs and nodal attributes is a compelling question in criminal and terrorism networks. This article is motivated by the study of dynamically evolving interactions among prominent terrorist organizations, considering various organizational attributes like size, ideology, leadership, and operational capacity. Statistically principled integration of multiplex graphs with nodal attributes is significantly challenging due to the need to leverage shared information within and across layers, account for uncertainty in predicting unobserved links, and capture temporal evolution of node attributes. These difficulties increase when layers are partially observed, as in terrorism networks where connections are deliberately hidden to obscure key relationships. To address these challenges, we present a principled methodological framework to integrate the multiplex graph layers and nodal attributes. The approach employs time-varying stochastic latent factor models, leveraging shared latent factors to capture graph structure and its co-evolution with node attributes. Latent factors are modeled using Gaussian processes with an infinitely wide deep neural network-based covariance function, termed neural network Gaussian processes (NN-GP). The NN-GP framework on latent factors exploits the predictive power of Bayesian deep neural network architecture while propagating uncertainty for reliability. Simulation studies highlight superior performance of the proposed approach in achieving inferential objectives. The approach, termed as dynamic joint learner, enables predictive inference (with uncertainty) of diverse unobserved dynamic relationships among prominent terrorist organizations and their organization-specific attributes, as well as clustering behavior in terms of friend-and-foe relationships, which could be informative in counter-terrorism research.


Iraq pulled into Iran war as US targets Iran-aligned groups

Al Jazeera

Air strikes have targeted the headquarters of the Iran-aligned Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq's capital, Baghdad, as the country becomes a two-way battlefield between armed factions and the United States during its war with Iran . The US carried out strikes against the Shia paramilitary umbrella group, also known locally as Hashed al-Shaabi, late on Sunday after attacks on a US diplomatic and logistics centre at Baghdad International Airport. The attack was carried out after Iraqi security officials said four explosions were heard near Camp Victory, a US logistics centre at the capital's main airport. Al Jazeera's Assed Baig, reporting from Baghdad, said some drones "breached air defences and caused damage, more symbolic damage than anything else". "At the same time, Iraqi security forces have set up checkpoints around Baghdad to try and stop these drone strikes because some of these factions are launching drones from the vicinity of Baghdad," he said.


Meet the Gods of AI Warfare

WIRED

In its early days, the AI initiative known as Project Maven had its fair share of skeptics at the Pentagon. Today, many of them are true believers. The rise of AI warfare speaks to the biggest moral and practical question there is: Who--or what--gets to decide to take a human life? And who bears that cost? In 2018, more than 3,000 Google workers protested the company's involvement in "the business of war" after finding out the company was part of Project Maven, then a nascent Pentagon effort to use computer vision to rifle through copious video footage taken in America's overseas drone wars. They feared Project Maven's AI could one day be used for lethal targeting. In my yearslong effort to uncover the full story of Project Maven for my book,, I learned that is exactly what happened, and that the undertaking was just as controversial inside the Pentagon. Today, the tool known as Maven Smart System is being used in US operations against Iran . How the US military's top brass moved from skepticism about the use of AI in war to true believers has a lot to do with a Marine colonel named Drew Cukor. In early September 2024, during the cocktail hour at a private retreat for tech investors and defense leaders, Vice Admiral Frank "Trey" Whitworth found his way to Drew Cukor. Now Project Maven's founding leader and his skeptical successor were standing face-to-face. Three years earlier, Whitworth had been the Pentagon's top military official for intelligence, advising the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and running one of the most sensitive and potentially lethal parts of any military process: targeting.


Learnability with Partial Labels and Adaptive Nearest Neighbors

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Prior work on partial labels learning (PLL) has shown that learning is possible even when each instance is associated with a bag of labels, rather than a single accurate but costly label. However, the necessary conditions for learning with partial labels remain unclear, and existing PLL methods are effective only in specific scenarios. In this work, we mathematically characterize the settings in which PLL is feasible. In addition, we present PL A-$k$NN, an adaptive nearest-neighbors algorithm for PLL that is effective in general scenarios and enjoys strong performance guarantees. Experimental results corroborate that PL A-$k$NN can outperform state-of-the-art methods in general PLL scenarios.


Kolmogorov-Arnold causal generative models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Causal generative models provide a principled framework for answering observational, interventional, and counterfactual queries from observational data. However, many deep causal models rely on highly expressive architectures with opaque mechanisms, limiting auditability in high-stakes domains. We propose KaCGM, a causal generative model for mixed-type tabular data where each structural equation is parameterized by a Kolmogorov--Arnold Network (KAN). This decomposition enables direct inspection of learned causal mechanisms, including symbolic approximations and visualization of parent--child relationships, while preserving query-agnostic generative semantics. We introduce a validation pipeline based on distributional matching and independence diagnostics of inferred exogenous variables, allowing assessment using observational data alone. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks show competitive performance against state-of-the-art methods. A real-world cardiovascular case study further demonstrates the extraction of simplified structural equations and interpretable causal effects. These results suggest that expressive causal generative modeling and functional transparency can be achieved jointly, supporting trustworthy deployment in tabular decision-making settings. Code: https://github.com/aalmodovares/kacgm


As cattle herds shrink and beef prices rise, investors back AI cow collars

FOX News

This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. Quotes displayed in real-time or delayed by at least 15 minutes. Market data provided by Factset . Powered and implemented by FactSet Digital Solutions . Mutual Fund and ETF data provided by LSEG .


'A direct hit' - BBC visits Israeli town after Iranian strike

BBC News

More than 160 people have been injured in Iranian strikes on southern Israel, emergency services have said. Ballistic missiles hit the towns of Arad and Dimona, which are close to a nuclear facility, on Saturday evening. Iranian state TV earlier said the strikes were in response to an attack on Iran's Natanz nuclear facility. Displaced Palestinians were told to secure their tents to prevent them being blown away as a storm swept through the enclave. UK does not'agree with Trump on every issue' - Cooper Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper has hit back at President Trump's criticism of the UK response to the conflict in Iran.


Sudan drone attack on key hospital killed 64 people during Eid, WHO says

BBC News

Sudan's army has denied it carried out a deadly attack on a major hospital on Friday night in a city in the west of the country held by its rivals, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The head of the World Health Organization (WHO) said 64 people - including 13 children, two nurses and a doctor - had died in the strike on el-Daein Teaching Hospital and 89 others had been wounded. Enough blood has been spilled, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus posted on X, urging the warring parties to end the conflict, which started nearly three years ago. The RSF said an army drone had hit the hospital in el-Daein, the capital of East Darfur state, on the day Muslims were marking the festival of Eid. Sudan was plunged into a civil war in April 2023 when a vicious struggle for power broke out between the military and the RSF, who had once been allies after coming to power in a coup in 2021.


How Bad Is Plagiarism, Really?

The New Yorker

How Bad Is Plagiarism, Really? From ancient Rome to the era of A.I., people have prized originality, but the line where influence ends and cribbing begins is notoriously blurry. One pleasing facet of plagiarism is that, in the eyes of the law, it doesn't exist. I could come over later, bring a few beers, and we could, you know, get down to some serious humanizing. Hard to resist, these days, given what's at stake. For students with assignments to complete, who have already vanquished their desolation by asking ChatGPT to compose an essay on their behalf, a humanizer is an A.I. tool that takes what has been produced, puts it through a further digital mill, and makes it sound as if it had emerged from a verifiable person. Among the companies that offer such tools are StealthWriter, HIX AI, and QuillBot. Anyone who has buttered and blitzed a mountain of mashed potatoes into a purée will understand.