The perspective of developing trustworthy AI for critical applications in science and engineering requires machine learning techniques that are capable of estimating their own uncertainty. In the context of regression, instead of estimating a conditional mean, this can be achieved by producing a predictive interval for the output, or to even learn a model of the conditional probability $p(y|x)$ of an output $y$ given input features $x$. While this can be done under parametric assumptions with, e.g. generalized linear model, these are typically too strong, and non-parametric models offer flexible alternatives. In particular, for scalar outputs, learning directly a model of the conditional cumulative distribution function of $y$ given $x$ can lead to more precise probabilistic estimates, and the use of proper scoring rules such as the weighted interval score (WIS) and the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) lead to better coverage and calibration properties. This paper introduces novel algorithms for learning probabilistic regression trees for the WIS or CRPS loss functions. These algorithms are made computationally efficient thanks to an appropriate use of known data structures - namely min-max heaps, weight-balanced binary trees and Fenwick trees. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate that the performance of our methods is competitive with alternative approaches. Additionally, our methods benefit from the inherent interpretability and explainability of trees. As a by-product, we show how our trees can be used in the context of conformal prediction and explain why they are particularly well-suited for achieving group-conditional coverage guarantees.

Estimating causal effects from spatiotemporal data is a key challenge in fields such as public health, social policy, and environmental science, where controlled experiments are often infeasible. However, existing causal inference methods relying on observational data face significant limitations: they depend on strong structural assumptions to address spatiotemporal challenges $\unicode{x2013}$ such as interference, spatial confounding, and temporal carryover effects $\unicode{x2013}$ or fail to account for $\textit{time-varying confounders}$. These confounders, influenced by past treatments and outcomes, can themselves shape future treatments and outcomes, creating feedback loops that complicate traditional adjustment strategies. To address these challenges, we introduce the $\textbf{GST-UNet}$ ($\textbf{G}$-computation $\textbf{S}$patio-$\textbf{T}$emporal $\textbf{UNet}$), a novel end-to-end neural network framework designed to estimate treatment effects in complex spatial and temporal settings. The GST-UNet leverages regression-based iterative G-computation to explicitly adjust for time-varying confounders, providing valid estimates of potential outcomes and treatment effects. To the best of our knowledge, the GST-UNet is the first neural model to account for complex, non-linear dynamics and time-varying confounders in spatiotemporal interventions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the GST-UNet through extensive simulation studies and showcase its practical utility with a real-world analysis of the impact of wildfire smoke on respiratory hospitalizations during the 2018 California Camp Fire. Our results highlight the potential of GST-UNet to advance spatiotemporal causal inference across a wide range of policy-driven and scientific applications.

Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) has recently emerged as a significant area of research. However, MARL evaluation often lacks systematic diversity, hindering a comprehensive understanding of algorithms' capabilities. In particular, cooperative MARL algorithms are predominantly evaluated on benchmarks such as SMAC and GRF, which primarily feature team game scenarios without assessing adequately various aspects of agents' capabilities required in fully cooperative real-world tasks such as multi-robot cooperation and warehouse, resource management, search and rescue, and human-AI cooperation. Moreover, MARL algorithms are mainly evaluated on low dimensional state spaces, and thus their performance on high-dimensional (e.g., image) observations is not well-studied. To fill this gap, this paper highlights the crucial need for expanding systematic evaluation across a wider array of existing benchmarks. To this end, we conduct extensive evaluation and comparisons of well-known MARL algorithms on complex fully cooperative benchmarks, including tasks with images as agents' observations. Interestingly, our analysis shows that many algorithms, hailed as state-of-the-art on SMAC and GRF, may underperform standard MARL baselines on fully cooperative benchmarks. Finally, towards more systematic and better evaluation of cooperative MARL algorithms, we have open-sourced PyMARLzoo+, an extension of the widely used (E)PyMARL libraries, which addresses an open challenge from [TBG++21], facilitating seamless integration and support with all benchmarks of PettingZoo, as well as Overcooked, PressurePlate, Capture Target and Box Pushing.

Training large language models (LLMs) with high-quality Chain-of-Thought (CoT) annotations has become a widely adopted strategy due to its significant enhancement of reasoning capabilities. To fully comprehend this approach, two questions naturally arise: (Q1) What advantages does training with CoT offer compared to training without CoT? (Q2) If there are advantages, what are the underlying mechanisms of explicit CoT training? Analyzing the advantages and mechanisms of CoT training is challenging due to the many factors involved. To address this, we conduct a detailed analysis using clear and controllable data distributions and, for the first time, reveal that CoT training offers the following advantages: (1) Training with CoT markedly improves reasoning generalization, extending it from in-distribution (ID) to both ID and out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios, while also speeding up convergence; (2) Even when training with CoT includes a certain range of erroneous reasoning steps, it still enables the model to learn reasoning patterns, leading to systematic generalization. We further explore the underlying mechanisms from a circuit perspective: (1) The data distribution (e.g., ratio $\lambda$ and pattern) plays a crucial role in influencing the model's systematic generalization; (2) CoT training (with two-hop facts) internalizes reasoning into a two-stage generalizing circuit, where the number of stages corresponds to the explicit reasoning steps during training. Our findings elucidate the mechanisms underlying explicit CoT training and offer critical insights into tuning strategies for LLMs to achieve robust generalization.

Enabling autonomous robots to safely and efficiently navigate, explore, and map underwater caves is of significant importance to water resource management, hydrogeology, archaeology, and marine robotics. In this work, we demonstrate the system design and algorithmic integration of a visual servoing framework for semantically guided autonomous underwater cave exploration. We present the hardware and edge-AI design considerations to deploy this framework on a novel AUV (Autonomous Underwater Vehicle) named CavePI. The guided navigation is driven by a computationally light yet robust deep visual perception module, delivering a rich semantic understanding of the environment. Subsequently, a robust control mechanism enables CavePI to track the semantic guides and navigate within complex cave structures. We evaluate the system through field experiments in natural underwater caves and spring-water sites and further validate its ROS (Robot Operating System)-based digital twin in a simulation environment. Our results highlight how these integrated design choices facilitate reliable navigation under feature-deprived, GPS-denied, and low-visibility conditions.

The vast majority of retrieval models depend on vector inner products to produce a relevance score between a query and a document. This naturally limits the expressiveness of the relevance score that can be employed. We propose a new paradigm, instead of producing a vector to represent the query we produce a small neural network which acts as a learned relevance function. This small neural network takes in a representation of the document, in this paper we use a single vector, and produces a scalar relevance score. To produce the little neural network we use a hypernetwork, a network that produce the weights of other networks, as our query encoder or as we call it a Hypencoder. Experiments on in-domain search tasks show that Hypencoder is able to significantly outperform strong dense retrieval models and has higher metrics then reranking models and models an order of magnitude larger. Hypencoder is also shown to generalize well to out-of-domain search tasks. To assess the extent of Hypencoder's capabilities, we evaluate on a set of hard retrieval tasks including tip-of-the-tongue retrieval and instruction-following retrieval tasks and find that the performance gap widens substantially compared to standard retrieval tasks. Furthermore, to demonstrate the practicality of our method we implement an approximate search algorithm and show that our model is able to search 8.8M documents in under 60ms.

With recent advancements in non-invasive techniques for measuring brain activity, such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), the study of structural and functional brain networks through graph signal processing (GSP) has gained notable prominence. GSP stands as a key tool in unraveling the interplay between the brain's function and structure, enabling the analysis of graphs defined by the connections between regions of interest -- referred to as connectomes in this context. Our work represents a further step in this direction by exploring supervised contrastive learning methods within the realm of graph representation learning. The main objective of this approach is to generate subject-level (i.e., graph-level) vector representations that bring together subjects sharing the same label while separating those with different labels. These connectome embeddings are derived from a graph neural network Encoder-Decoder architecture, which jointly considers structural and functional connectivity. By leveraging data augmentation techniques, the proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art performance in a gender classification task using Human Connectome Project data. More broadly, our connectome-centric methodological advances support the promising prospect of using GSP to discover more about brain function, with potential impact to understanding heterogeneity in the neurodegeneration for precision medicine and diagnosis.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) exhibit impressive capabilities but still face challenges in complex visual reasoning. While recent efforts attempt to enhance MLLMs' reasoning by incorporating OpenAI o1-like structured thinking through explicit search structures or teacher-guided distillation, they often struggle to balance performance and efficiency. A critical limitation is their heavy reliance on extensive data and search spaces, resulting in low-efficiency implicit insight extraction and data utilization. To address this, we propose AStar, an Automated Structured thinking paradigm for multimodal reasoning via Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). AStar automatically derives high-level cognitive reasoning patterns from limited data using MCTS-powered hierarchical structures. Building on these explicit patterns, we design a unified reasoning framework that seamlessly integrates models' internal reasoning capabilities and external reasoning guidelines, enabling efficient inference with minimal tree iterations. This novel paradigm strikes a compelling balance between performance and efficiency. Extensive experiments demonstrate AStar's effectiveness, achieving superior accuracy (54.0$\%$) on the MathVerse benchmark with a 7B backbone, surpassing GPT-4o (50.2$\%$) while maintaining substantial data and computational efficiency.

With the advent of large multimodal language models, science is now at a threshold of an AI-based technological transformation. Recently, a plethora of new AI models and tools has been proposed, promising to empower researchers and academics worldwide to conduct their research more effectively and efficiently. This includes all aspects of the research cycle, especially (1) searching for relevant literature; (2) generating research ideas and conducting experimentation; generating (3) text-based and (4) multimodal content (e.g., scientific figures and diagrams); and (5) AI-based automatic peer review. In this survey, we provide an in-depth overview over these exciting recent developments, which promise to fundamentally alter the scientific research process for good. Our survey covers the five aspects outlined above, indicating relevant datasets, methods and results (including evaluation) as well as limitations and scope for future research. Ethical concerns regarding shortcomings of these tools and potential for misuse (fake science, plagiarism, harms to research integrity) take a particularly prominent place in our discussion. We hope that our survey will not only become a reference guide for newcomers to the field but also a catalyst for new AI-based initiatives in the area of "AI4Science".

Vision-Language Models (VLMs), built on pre-trained vision encoders and large language models (LLMs), have shown exceptional multi-modal understanding and dialog capabilities, positioning them as catalysts for the next technological revolution. However, while most VLM research focuses on enhancing multi-modal interaction, the risks of data misuse and leakage have been largely unexplored. This prompts the need for a comprehensive investigation of such risks in VLMs. In this paper, we conduct the first analysis of misuse and leakage detection in VLMs through the lens of membership inference attack (MIA). In specific, we focus on the instruction tuning data of VLMs, which is more likely to contain sensitive or unauthorized information. To address the limitation of existing MIA methods, we introduce a novel approach that infers membership based on a set of samples and their sensitivity to temperature, a unique parameter in VLMs. Based on this, we propose four membership inference methods, each tailored to different levels of background knowledge, ultimately arriving at the most challenging scenario. Our comprehensive evaluations show that these methods can accurately determine membership status, e.g., achieving an AUC greater than 0.8 targeting a small set consisting of only 5 samples on LLaVA.