The in-context learning (ICL) capability of large language models (LLMs) enables them to perform challenging tasks using provided demonstrations. However, ICL is highly sensitive to the ordering of demonstrations, leading to instability in predictions. This paper shows that this vulnerability can be exploited to design a natural attack - difficult for model providers to detect - that achieves nearly 80% success rate on LLaMA-3 by simply permuting the demonstrations. Existing mitigation methods primarily rely on post-processing and fail to enhance the model's inherent robustness to input permutations, raising concerns about safety and reliability of LLMs. To address this issue, we propose Permutation-resilient learning (PEARL), a novel framework based on distributionally robust optimization (DRO), which optimizes model performance against the worst-case input permutation. Specifically, PEARL consists of a permutation-proposal network (P-Net) and the LLM. The P-Net generates the most challenging permutations by treating it as an optimal transport problem, which is solved using an entropy-constrained Sinkhorn algorithm. Through minimax optimization, the P-Net and the LLM iteratively optimize against each other, progressively improving the LLM's robustness. Experiments on synthetic pre-training and real-world instruction tuning tasks demonstrate that PEARL effectively mitigates permutation attacks and enhances performance. Notably, despite being trained on fewer shots and shorter contexts, PEARL achieves performance gains of up to 40% when scaled to many-shot and long-context scenarios, highlighting its efficiency and generalization capabilities.

--Understanding the confidence with which a machine learning model classifies an input datum is an important, and perhaps under-investigated, concept. In this paper, we propose a new calibration metric, the Entropic Calibration Difference (ECD). Based on existing research in the field of state estimation, specifically target tracking (TT), we show how ECD may be applied to binary classification machine learning models. We describe the relative importance of under-and over-confidence and how they are not conflated in the TT literature. We consider this important given that algorithms that are under-confident are likely to be "safer" than algorithms that are over-confident, albeit at the expense of also being over-cautious and so statistically inefficient. We demonstrate how this new metric performs on real and simulated data and compare with other metrics for machine learning model probability calibration, including the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) and its signed counterpart, the Expected Signed Calibration Error (ESCE). Calibration of probabilities is an important and often-overlooked concept when developing machine learning (ML) models. Usually, accuracy is the main metric used to calculate how well an ML model performs in terms of predicting a class for unseen data. Generally speaking, the closer the accuracy is to 100%, the better the model is deemed to be. However, this does not take into account the probability of predictions that the model outputs, which can be just as important, if not more, than the accuracy.

Because of the global need to increase power production from renewable energy resources, developments in the online monitoring of the associated infrastructure is of interest to reduce operation and maintenance costs. However, challenges exist for data-driven approaches to this problem, such as incomplete or limited histories of labelled damage-state data, operational and environmental variability, or the desire for the quantification of uncertainty to support risk management. This work first introduces a probabilistic regression model for predicting wind-turbine power, which adjusts for wake effects learnt from data. Spatial correlations in the learned model parameters for different tasks (turbines) are then leveraged in a hierarchical Bayesian model (an approach to multi-task learning) to develop a "metamodel", which can be used to make power-predictions which adjust for turbine location - including on previously unobserved turbines not included in the training data. The results show that the metamodel is able to outperform a series of benchmark models, and demonstrates a novel strategy for making efficient use of data for inference in populations of structures, in particular where correlations exist in the variable(s) of interest (such as those from wind-turbine wake-effects).

This study evaluates Large Language Models' (LLMs) ability to simulate non-native-like English use observed in human second language (L2) learners interfered with by their native first language (L1). In dialogue-based interviews, we prompt LLMs to mimic L2 English learners with specific L1s (e.g., Japanese, Thai, Urdu) across seven languages, comparing their outputs to real L2 learner data. Our analysis examines L1-driven linguistic biases, such as reference word usage and avoidance behaviors, using information-theoretic and distributional density measures. Results show that modern LLMs (e.g., Qwen2.5, LLAMA3.3, DeepseekV3, GPT-4o) replicate L1-dependent patterns observed in human L2 data, with distinct influences from various languages (e.g., Japanese, Korean, and Mandarin significantly affect tense agreement, and Urdu influences noun-verb collocations). Our results reveal the potential of LLMs for L2 dialogue generation and evaluation for future educational applications.

The assessment of argument quality depends on well-established logical, rhetorical, and dialectical properties that are unavoidably subjective: multiple valid assessments may exist, there is no unequivocal ground truth. This aligns with recent paths in machine learning, which embrace the co-existence of different perspectives. However, this potential remains largely unexplored in NLP research on argument quality. One crucial reason seems to be the yet unexplored availability of suitable datasets. We fill this gap by conducting a systematic review of argument quality datasets. We assign them to a multi-layered categorization targeting two aspects: (a) What has been annotated: we collect the quality dimensions covered in datasets and consolidate them in an overarching taxonomy, increasing dataset comparability and interoperability. (b) Who annotated: we survey what information is given about annotators, enabling perspectivist research and grounding our recommendations for future actions. To this end, we discuss datasets suitable for developing perspectivist models (i.e., those containing individual, non-aggregated annotations), and we showcase the importance of a controlled selection of annotators in a pilot study.

Macroeconomic fluctuations and the narratives that shape them form a mutually reinforcing cycle: public discourse can spur behavioural changes leading to economic shifts, which then result in changes in the stories that propagate. We show that shifts in semantic embedding space can be causally linked to financial market shocks -- deviations from the expected market behaviour. Furthermore, we show how partisanship can influence the predictive power of text for market fluctuations and shape reactions to those same shocks. We also provide some evidence that text-based signals are particularly salient during unexpected events such as COVID-19, highlighting the value of language data as an exogenous variable in economic forecasting. Our findings underscore the bidirectional relationship between news outlets and market shocks, offering a novel empirical approach to studying their effect on each other.

Handling long-context sequences efficiently remains a significant challenge in large language models (LLMs). Existing methods for token selection in sequence extrapolation either employ a permanent eviction strategy or select tokens by chunk, which may lead to the loss of critical information. We propose Efficient Selective Attention (ESA), a novel approach that extends context length by efficiently selecting the most critical tokens at the token level to compute attention. ESA reduces the computational complexity of token selection by compressing query and key vectors into lower-dimensional representations. We evaluate ESA on long sequence benchmarks with maximum lengths up to 256k using open-source LLMs with context lengths of 8k and 32k. ESA outperforms other selective attention methods, especially in tasks requiring the retrieval of multiple pieces of information, achieving comparable performance to full-attention extrapolation methods across various tasks, with superior results in certain tasks.

Natural Language Generation (NLG) popularity has increased owing to the progress in Large Language Models (LLMs), with zero-shot inference capabilities. However, most neural systems utilize decoder-only causal (unidirectional) transformer models, which are effective for English but may reduce the richness of languages with less strict word order, subject omission, or different relative clause attachment preferences. This is the first work that analytically addresses optimal text generation order for non-causal language models. We present a novel Viterbi algorithm-based methodology for maximum likelihood word order estimation. We analyze the non-causal most-likelihood order probability for NLG in Spanish and, then, the probability of generating the same phrases with Spanish causal NLG. This comparative analysis reveals that causal NLG prefers English-like SVO structures. We also analyze the relationship between optimal generation order and causal left-to-right generation order using Spearman's rank correlation. Our results demonstrate that the ideal order predicted by the maximum likelihood estimator is not closely related to the causal order and may be influenced by the syntactic structure of the target sentence.

The prevalence of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) raises important questions about privacy in an era where visual information is increasingly available. While foundation VLMs demonstrate broad knowledge and learned capabilities, we specifically investigate their ability to infer geographic location from previously unseen image data. This paper introduces a benchmark dataset collected from Google Street View that represents its global distribution of coverage. Foundation models are evaluated on single-image geolocation inference, with many achieving median distance errors of <300 km. We further evaluate VLM "agents" with access to supplemental tools, observing up to a 30.6% decrease in distance error. Our findings establish that modern foundation VLMs can act as powerful image geolocation tools, without being specifically trained for this task. When coupled with increasing accessibility of these models, our findings have greater implications for online privacy. We discuss these risks, as well as future work in this area.

Recent advances in natural language processing have raised expectations for generative models to produce coherent text across diverse language varieties. In the particular case of the Portuguese language, the predominance of Brazilian Portuguese corpora online introduces linguistic biases in these models, limiting their applicability outside of Brazil. To address this gap and promote the creation of European Portuguese resources, we developed a cross-domain language variety identifier (LVI) to discriminate between European and Brazilian Portuguese. Motivated by the findings of our literature review, we compiled the PtBrVarId corpus, a cross-domain LVI dataset, and study the effectiveness of transformer-based LVI classifiers for cross-domain scenarios. Although this research focuses on two Portuguese varieties, our contribution can be extended to other varieties and languages. We open source the code, corpus, and models to foster further research in this task.