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Estimating Interventional Distributions with Uncertain Causal Graphs through Meta-Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In scientific domains -- from biology to the social sciences -- many questions boil down to \textit{What effect will we observe if we intervene on a particular variable?} If the causal relationships (e.g.~a causal graph) are known, it is possible to estimate the intervention distributions. In the absence of this domain knowledge, the causal structure must be discovered from the available observational data. However, observational data are often compatible with multiple causal graphs, making methods that commit to a single structure prone to overconfidence. A principled way to manage this structural uncertainty is via Bayesian inference, which averages over a posterior distribution on possible causal structures and functional mechanisms. Unfortunately, the number of causal structures grows super-exponentially with the number of nodes in the graph, making computations intractable. We propose to circumvent these challenges by using meta-learning to create an end-to-end model: the Model-Averaged Causal Estimation Transformer Neural Process (MACE-TNP). The model is trained to predict the Bayesian model-averaged interventional posterior distribution, and its end-to-end nature bypasses the need for expensive calculations. Empirically, we demonstrate that MACE-TNP outperforms strong Bayesian baselines. Our work establishes meta-learning as a flexible and scalable paradigm for approximating complex Bayesian causal inference, that can be scaled to increasingly challenging settings in the future.


Bayesian Hierarchical Invariant Prediction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose Bayesian Hierarchical Invariant Prediction (BHIP) reframing Invariant Causal Prediction (ICP) through the lens of Hierarchical Bayes. We leverage the hierarchical structure to explicitly test invariance of causal mechanisms under heterogeneous data, resulting in improved computational scalability for a larger number of predictors compared to ICP. Moreover, given its Bayesian nature BHIP enables the use of prior information. In this paper, we test two sparsity inducing priors: horseshoe and spike-and-slab, both of which allow us a more reliable identification of causal features. We test BHIP in synthetic and real-world data showing its potential as an alternative inference method to ICP.


BRICS fills soft-power vacuum as Trump-led U.S. retreats

The Japan Times

With the U.S. withdrawing from international organizations and alienating other countries with tariffs, the 10-nation BRICS grouping of major emerging economies has been gradually stepping in to fill a growing soft-power vacuum, particularly among Global South countries. Highlighting this approach was the group's two-day summit that ended Monday in Rio de Janeiro, where member states took a firm stance on topics such as strengthening multilateralism, establishing international artificial intelligence standards and tackling climate change as the BRICS aims to become a credible alternative to the established international order. "This year's summit -- particularly its efforts to align positions on artificial intelligence, health care and climate change -- indicates that BRICS is evolving into a credible voice for the Global South, capable of setting new standards and norms," said Sebastian Maslow, an associate professor at the University of Tokyo.


From Street Form to Spatial Justice: Explaining Urban Exercise Inequality via a Triadic SHAP-Informed Framework

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Urban streets are essential public spaces that facilitate everyday physical activity and promote health equity. Drawing on Henri Lefebvre's spatial triad, this study proposes a conceptual and methodological framework to quantify street-level exercise deprivation through the dimensions of conceived (planning and structure), perceived (visual and sensory), and lived (practice and experiential) urban spaces. We integrate multi-source spatial data-including street networks, street-view imagery, and social media-using explainable machine learning (SHAP analysis) to classify streets by their dominant deprivation modes, forming a novel typology of spatial inequity. Results highlight significant differences across urban contexts: older city cores predominantly experience infrastructural constraints (conceived space), whereas new development areas suffer from experiential disengagement (lived space). Furthermore, by identifying spatial mismatches between population distribution and exercise intensity, our study reveals localized clusters of latent deprivation. Simulation experiments demonstrate that targeted improvements across spatial dimensions can yield up to 14% increases in exercise supportiveness. This research not only operationalizes Lefebvre's spatial theory at the street scale but also provides actionable insights and intervention guidelines, contributing to the broader goals of spatial justice and urban health equity.


A Technical Survey of Reinforcement Learning Techniques for Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has emerged as a transformative approach for aligning and enhancing Large Language Models (LLMs), addressing critical challenges in instruction following, ethical alignment, and reasoning capabilities. This survey offers a comprehensive foundation on the integration of RL with language models, highlighting prominent algorithms such as Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), Q-Learning, and Actor-Critic methods. Additionally, it provides an extensive technical overview of RL techniques specifically tailored for LLMs, including foundational methods like Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) and AI Feedback (RLAIF), as well as advanced strategies such as Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) and Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). We systematically analyze their applications across domains, i.e., from code generation to tool-augmented reasoning. We also present a comparative taxonomy based on reward modeling, feedback mechanisms, and optimization strategies. Our evaluation highlights key trends. RLHF remains dominant for alignment, and outcome-based RL such as RLVR significantly improves stepwise reasoning. However, persistent challenges such as reward hacking, computational costs, and scalable feedback collection underscore the need for continued innovation. We further discuss emerging directions, including hybrid RL algorithms, verifier-guided training, and multi-objective alignment frameworks. This survey serves as a roadmap for researchers advancing RL-driven LLM development, balancing capability enhancement with safety and scalability.


Economic Evaluation of LLMs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Practitioners often navigate LLM performance trade-offs by plotting Pareto frontiers of optimal accuracy-cost trade-offs. However, this approach offers no way to compare between LLMs with distinct strengths and weaknesses: for example, a cheap, error-prone model vs a pricey but accurate one. To address this gap, we propose economic evaluation of LLMs. Our framework quantifies the performance trade-off of an LLM as a single number based on the economic constraints of a concrete use case, all expressed in dollars: the cost of making a mistake, the cost of incremental latency, and the cost of abstaining from a query. We apply our economic evaluation framework to compare the performance of reasoning and non-reasoning models on difficult questions from the MATH benchmark, discovering that reasoning models offer better accuracy-cost tradeoffs as soon as the economic cost of a mistake exceeds \$0.01. In addition, we find that single large LLMs often outperform cascades when the cost of making a mistake is as low as \$0.1. Overall, our findings suggest that when automating meaningful human tasks with AI models, practitioners should typically use the most powerful available model, rather than attempt to minimize AI deployment costs, since deployment costs are likely dwarfed by the economic impact of AI errors.


HGCA: Hybrid GPU-CPU Attention for Long Context LLM Inference

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Scaling inference for large language models (LLMs) is increasingly constrained by limited GPU memory, especially due to growing key-value (KV) caches required for long-context generation. While existing approaches offload KV caches to CPU memory or apply sparse attention to reduce GPU load, they often underutilize CPU compute resources and compromise accuracy. We present HGCA, a hybrid CPU-GPU attention mechanism that enables scalable, high-throughput LLM inference with near-full attention quality. HGCA performs dense attention on recently generated KV entries retained in GPU memory and parallel sparse attention on selected, salient KV entries in CPU memory. The attention outputs are efficiently merged using log-sum-exp fusion, minimizing PCIe transfer overhead. HGCA also introduces a finegrained, per-head sparsification strategy optimized for CPU execution, preserving contextual relevance while reducing computation. Our implementation seamlessly integrates into existing LLM frameworks without requiring model retraining. Experiments across diverse models and workloads show that HGCA achieves superior scalability, supports longer sequences and larger batch sizes, and outperforms existing sparse attention baselines in both performance and accuracy -- all on commodity GPU hardware.


CLUES: Collaborative High-Quality Data Selection for LLMs via Training Dynamics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent research has highlighted the importance of data quality in scaling large language models (LLMs). However, automated data quality control faces unique challenges in collaborative settings where sharing is not allowed directly between data silos. To tackle this issue, this paper proposes a novel data quality control technique based on the notion of data influence on the training dynamics of LLMs, that high quality data are more likely to have similar training dynamics to the anchor dataset. We then leverage the influence of the training dynamics to select high-quality data from different private domains, with centralized model updates on the server side in a collaborative training fashion by either model merging or federated learning. As for the data quality indicator, we compute the per-sample gradients with respect to the private data and the anchor dataset, and use the trace of the accumulated inner products as a measurement of data quality. In addition, we develop a quality control evaluation tailored for collaborative settings with heterogeneous domain data. Experiments show that training on the high-quality data selected by our method can often outperform other data selection methods for collaborative fine-tuning of LLMs, across diverse private domain datasets, in medical, multilingual and financial settings. Our code is released at github.com/Ryan0v0/CLUES.


Breaking Physical and Linguistic Borders: Multilingual Federated Prompt Tuning for Low-Resource Languages

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Pre-trained large language models (LLMs) have become a cornerstone of modern natural language processing, with their capabilities extending across a wide range of applications and languages. However, the fine-tuning of multilingual LLMs, especially for low-resource languages, faces significant challenges arising from data-sharing restrictions (the physical border) and inherent linguistic differences (the linguistic border). These barriers hinder users of various languages, particularly those in low-resource regions, from fully benefiting from the advantages of LLMs. To address these challenges, we propose the Federated Prompt Tuning Paradigm for multilingual scenarios, which utilizes parameter-efficient fine-tuning while adhering to data sharing restrictions. We design a comprehensive set of experiments and analyze them using a novel notion of language distance to highlight the strengths of our paradigm: Even under computational constraints, our method not only improves data efficiency but also facilitates mutual enhancements across languages, particularly benefiting low-resource ones. Compared to traditional local cross-lingual transfer tuning methods, our approach achieves 6.9\% higher accuracy with improved data efficiency, and demonstrates greater stability and generalization. These findings underscore the potential of our approach to promote social equality and champion linguistic diversity, ensuring that no language is left behind.


Scalable Learning of High-Dimensional Demonstrations with Composition of Linear Parameter Varying Dynamical Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Learning from Demonstration (LfD) techniques enable robots to learn and generalize tasks from user demonstrations, eliminating the need for coding expertise among end-users. One established technique to implement LfD in robots is to encode demonstrations in a stable Dynamical System (DS). However, finding a stable dynamical system entails solving an optimization problem with bilinear matrix inequality (BMI) constraints, a non-convex problem which, depending on the number of scalar constraints and variables, demands significant computational resources and is susceptible to numerical issues such as floating-point errors. To address these challenges, we propose a novel compositional approach that enhances the applicability and scalability of learning stable DSs with BMIs.