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Improving accuracy in short mortality rate series: Exploring Multi-step Forecasting Approaches in Hybrid Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The decline in interest rates and economic stabilization has heightened the importance of accurate mortality rate forecasting, particularly in insurance and pension markets. Multi-step-ahead predictions are crucial for public health, demographic planning, and insurance risk assessments; however, they face challenges when data are limited. Hybrid systems that combine statistical and Machine Learning (ML) models offer a promising solution for handling both linear and nonlinear patterns. This study evaluated the impact of different multi-step forecasting approaches (Recursive, Direct, and Multi-Input Multi-Output) and ML models on the accuracy of hybrid systems. Results from 12 datasets and 21 models show that the selection of both the multi-step approach and the ML model is essential for improving performance, with the ARIMA-LSTM hybrid using a recursive approach outperforming other models in most cases.


Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 1,313

Al Jazeera

Can Ukraine restore its pre-war borders? Why are Tomahawk missiles for Ukraine a'red line' for Russia? Is Russia testing NATO with aerial incursions in Europe? Russian forces killed four people, including a 12-year-old girl, and injured 13 in an attack on Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, on Sunday night, Tymur Tkachenko, the head of Kyiv's military administration, wrote in a post on Telegram. Those killed also included staff and patients at a cardiology centre, Tkachenko added.


Denmark bans drone flights after latest drone sightings at military bases

Al Jazeera

Denmark has barred civilian drones from its airspace before a European Union Summit, following reported sightings of drones at several military locations overnight on Saturday. The Nordic country has been on alert following a string of drone incidents over the past week, which have led to the closure of several airports. The ban will remain in place from Monday through Friday of the coming week, when Denmark, which holds the rotating presidency of the EU for the second half of this year, will be hosting European leaders. In a statement earlier in the day, the country's Ministry of Defence said it had "several capacities deployed" after the drone sighting, without elaborating on the deployment, the number of drones or the locations. The latest incident comes a day after the NATO military alliance announced it was upgrading its mission in the Baltic Sea with an air defence frigate in response to the drone incursion in Denmark. In a statement sent to the Reuters news agency, NATO said it would "conduct even more enhanced vigilance with new multi-domain assets in the Baltic Sea region".


Heavy Russian drone attack kills at least four in Ukraine's capital Kyiv

Al Jazeera

Can Ukraine restore its pre-war borders? Why are Tomahawk missiles for Ukraine a'red line' for Russia? Is Russia testing NATO with aerial incursions in Europe? Heavy Russian drone attack kills at least four in Ukraine's capital Kyiv NewsFeed Heavy Russian drone attack kills at least four in Ukraine's capital Kyiv Russia has launched a heavy attack on Ukraine with hundreds of kamikaze drones hitting residential buildings in Kyiv. At least four people have been killed, including a 12-year-old girl.


'To them, ageing is a technical problem that can, and will, be fixed': how the rich and powerful plan to live for ever

The Guardian

'To them, ageing is a technical problem that can, and will, be fixed': how the rich and powerful plan to live for ever When Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin were caught on mic talking about living for ever, it seemed straight out of a sci-fi fantasy. You have everything you could want at your disposal: power, influence, money. But, the problem is, your time at the top is fleeting. In early September, China's Xi Jinping and Russia's Vladimir Putin were caught on mic talking about strategies to stay young. "With the development of biotechnology, human organs can be continuously transplanted, and people can live younger and younger, and even achieve immortality," Putin said via an interpreter to Xi. "There's a chance," he continued, "of also living to 150 [years old]." But is this even possible, and what would it mean for the world if the people with power were able to live for ever? Over the centuries, we have used ever more sophisticated technology to heal ourselves into unprecedented longevity. In the 20th century, it was innovations in public health and medicine that effected this transformation, allowing today's children to live longer, healthier lives than at any time in history.



At least 4 killed in major Russian drone, missile attack on Ukraine's Kyiv

Al Jazeera

Can Ukraine restore its pre-war borders? Is Russia testing NATO with aerial incursions in Europe? At least 4 killed in major Russian drone, missile attack on Ukraine's Kyiv At least four people have been killed, including a 12-year-old girl, and 10 others wounded as Russia launched a major drone and missile attack on the Ukrainian capital and the surrounding region. An air raid alert was in place over the Kyiv region early on Sunday, with the local military administration saying Russia was attacking with drones and missiles. Tkachenko wrote on Telegram that there were over 15 locations that had been damaged due to the barrage of attacks, including "drone strikes on multi-storey residential buildings".


Poland briefly closes airspace as NATO increases presence in the Baltic Sea

Al Jazeera

Can Ukraine restore its pre-war borders? Is Russia testing NATO with aerial incursions in Europe? Poland has briefly closed part of its airspace southeast of capital Warsaw, citing "unplanned military activity", as Russia launches a new wave of strikes against Ukraine. The deployment on Sunday of Polish and allied aircraft in the country's airspace comes as the transatlantic security bloc NATO announced that it is upgrading its mission in the Baltic Sea in response to drone incursions in Denmark and reported drone sightings in Norway. In the latest incident, the Polish armed forces said it scrambled aircraft to ensure the security of its airspace after Russia launched strikes on Ukraine.


Russia will give 'decisive response' if provoked by the West, says Lavrov

Al Jazeera

Can Ukraine restore its pre-war borders? Is Russia testing NATO with aerial incursions in Europe? Russia will give'decisive response' if provoked by the West, says Lavrov Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has warned NATO and the EU that "any aggression against my country will be met with a decisive response". Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York on Saturday, Lavrov insisted that Moscow had no plans to attack the West, but that it was prepared to act if provoked. "Russia is testing their ability to defend themselves and trying to influence societies so people begin to ask: 'If we can't protect ourselves, why should we keep supporting Ukraine?'. This is intended to reduce assistance to Ukraine, especially ahead of winter," he wrote on X. Moscow continues to deny violating Polish airspace with drones and Estonian airspace with fighter jets this month.


Russia has no intention of attacking EU or Nato states, foreign minister says

BBC News

Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov says his country has no intention of attacking EU or Nato member states but warned of a decisive response to any aggression directed towards Moscow. In a wide-ranging speech delivered at the UN General Assembly on Saturday, Lavrov said threats against Russia by Western countries were becoming increasingly common. He also took aim at Israel, saying that while Russia condemned the 7 October 2023 attacks by Hamas, there was no justification for the brutal killings of Palestinians in Gaza, or for plans to annex the West Bank. Israel has previously said its Gaza operation is necessary to defeat Hamas. At least 65,926 people have been killed by Israeli strikes, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, while about 1,200 people were killed and 251 others were taken hostage in the 7 October attacks.