Given a current news event, we tackle the problem of generating plausible predictions of future events it might cause. We present a new methodology for modeling and predicting such future news events using machine learning and data mining techniques. Our Pundit algorithm generalizes examples of causality pairs to infer a causality predictor. To obtain precisely labeled causality examples, we mine 150 years of news articles and apply semantic natural language modeling techniques to headlines containing certain predefined causality patterns. For generalization, the model uses a vast number of world knowledge ontologies. Empirical evaluation on real news articles shows that our Pundit algorithm performs as well as non-expert humans.

Social networking websites such as Twitter have invigorated a wide range of studies in recent years ranging from consumer opinions on products to tracking the spread of diseases. While sentiment analysis and opinion mining from tweets have been studied extensively, surveillance of beliefs, especially those related to public health, have received considerably less attention. In our previous work, we proposed a model for surveillance of health beliefs on Twitter relying on the use of hand-picked probe statements expressing various health-related propositions. In this work we extend our model to automatically discover various probes related to public health beliefs. We present a data driven approach based on two distinct datasets and study the prevalence of public belief, disbelief or doubt for newly discovered probe statements.

One common use for swarming agents is in social simulation. This paper reports on such a model developed to track protest activities at the May 2012 NATO summit in Chicago. The use of apoptotic stigmergic agents allows the model to run on-line, consuming two kinds of external data and reporting its results in real time.

In some domestic professional sports leagues, the home stadiums are located in cities connected by a common train line running in one direction. For these instances, we can incorporate this geographical information to determine optimal or nearly-optimal solutions to the n-team Traveling Tournament Problem (TTP), an NP-hard sports scheduling problem whose solution is a double round-robin tournament schedule that minimizes the sum total of distances traveled by all n teams. We introduce the Linear Distance Traveling Tournament Problem (LD-TTP), and solve it for n=4 and n=6, generating the complete set of possible solutions through elementary combinatorial techniques. For larger n, we propose a novel "expander construction" that generates an approximate solution to the LD-TTP. For n congruent to 4 modulo 6, we show that our expander construction produces a feasible double round-robin tournament schedule whose total distance is guaranteed to be no worse than 4/3 times the optimal solution, regardless of where the n teams are located. This 4/3-approximation for the LD-TTP is stronger than the currently best-known ratio of 5/3 + epsilon for the general TTP. We conclude the paper by applying this linear distance relaxation to general (non-linear) n-team TTP instances, where we develop fast approximate solutions by simply "assuming" the n teams lie on a straight line and solving the modified problem. We show that this technique surprisingly generates the distance-optimal tournament on all benchmark sets on 6 teams, as well as close-to-optimal schedules for larger n, even when the teams are located around a circle or positioned in three-dimensional space.

This paper introduces new methodology to triangulate dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) and dynamic graphical models (DGMs). While most methods to triangulate such networks use some form of constrained elimination scheme based on properties of the underlying directed graph, we find it useful to view triangulation and elimination using properties only of the resulting undirected graph, obtained after the moralization step. We first briefly introduce the Graphical model toolkit (GMTK) and its notion of dynamic graphical models, one that slightly extends the standard notion of a DBN. We next introduce the 'boundary algorithm', a method to find the best boundary between partitions in a dynamic model. We find that using this algorithm, the notions of forward- and backward-interface become moot - namely, the size and fill-in of the best forward- and backward- interface are identical. Moreover, we observe that finding a good partition boundary allows for constrained elimination orders (and therefore graph triangulations) that are not possible using standard slice-by-slice constrained eliminations. More interestingly, with certain boundaries it is possible to obtain constrained elimination schemes that lie outside the space of possible triangulations using only unconstrained elimination. Lastly, we report triangulation results on invented graphs, standard DBNs from the literature, novel DBNs used in speech recognition research systems, and also random graphs. Using a number of different triangulation quality measures (max clique size, state-space, etc.), we find that with our boundary algorithm the triangulation quality can dramatically improve.

Player metrics are an invaluable resource for game designers and QA analysts who wish to understand players, monitor and improve game play, and test design hypotheses. Usually such metrics are collected in a straightforward manner by passively recording players; however, such an approach has several potential drawbacks. First, passive recording might fail to record metrics which correspond to an infrequent player behavior. Secondly, passive recording can be a costly, laborious, and memory intensive process, even with the aid of tools. In this paper, we explore the potential for an active approach to player metric collection which strives to collect data more efficiently, and thus with less cost. We use an online, iterative approach which models the relationship between player metrics and in-game situations probabilistically using a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and solves it for the best game configurations to run. To analyze the benefits and limitations of this approach, we implemented a system, called GAMELAB, for recording player metrics in Second Life.

Influence Maps have been successfully used in controlling the navigation of multiple units. In this paper, we apply the idea to the problem of simulating a kiting behavior (also known as ¨attack and flee'¨) in the context of real-time strategy (RTS) games. We present our approach and evaluate it in the popular RTS game StarCraft, where we analyze the benefits that our approach brings to a StarCraft playing bot.

In the paper, we consider the problem of link prediction in time-evolving graphs. We assume that certain graph features, such as the node degree, follow a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and we propose to use this information to improve the accuracy of prediction. Our strategy involves a joint optimization procedure over the space of adjacency matrices and VAR matrices which takes into account both sparsity and low rank properties of the matrices. Oracle inequalities are derived and illustrate the trade-offs in the choice of smoothing parameters when modeling the joint effect of sparsity and low rank property. The estimate is computed efficiently using proximal methods through a generalized forward-backward agorithm.

We describe a new optimization scheme for finding high-quality correlation clusterings in planar graphs that uses weighted perfect matching as a subroutine. Our method provides lower-bounds on the energy of the optimal correlation clustering that are typically fast to compute and tight in practice. We demonstrate our algorithm on the problem of image segmentation where this approach outperforms existing global optimization techniques in minimizing the objective and is competitive with the state of the art in producing high-quality segmentations.

This paper presents an unsupervised algorithm for nonlinear unmixing of hyperspectral images. The proposed model assumes that the pixel reflectances result from a nonlinear function of the abundance vectors associated with the pure spectral components. We assume that the spectral signatures of the pure components and the nonlinear function are unknown. The first step of the proposed method consists of the Bayesian estimation of the abundance vectors for all the image pixels and the nonlinear function relating the abundance vectors to the observations. The endmembers are subsequently estimated using Gaussian process regression. The performance of the unmixing strategy is evaluated with simulations conducted on synthetic and real data.