Articulating thought in computer-based media is a powerful means for humans to develop their understanding of phenomena. We have created DynaLearn, an Intelligent Learning Environment that allows learners to acquire conceptual knowledge by constructing and simulating qualitative models of how systems behave. DynaLearn uses diagrammatic representations for learners to express their ideas. The environment is equipped with semantic technology components capable of generating knowledge-based feedback, and virtual characters enhancing the interaction with learners. Teachers have created course material, and successful evaluation studies have been performed. This article presents an overview of the DynaLearn system.

A recently proposed methodology called the Horizontal Visibility Graph (HVG) [Luque {\it et al.}, Phys. Rev. E., 80, 046103 (2009)] that constitutes a geometrical simplification of the well known Visibility Graph algorithm [Lacasa {\it et al.\/}, Proc. Natl. Sci. U.S.A. 105, 4972 (2008)], has been used to study the distinction between deterministic and stochastic components in time series [L. Lacasa and R. Toral, Phys. Rev. E., 82, 036120 (2010)]. Specifically, the authors propose that the node degree distribution of these processes follows an exponential functional of the form $P(\kappa)\sim \exp(-\lambda~\kappa)$, in which $\kappa$ is the node degree and $\lambda$ is a positive parameter able to distinguish between deterministic (chaotic) and stochastic (uncorrelated and correlated) dynamics. In this work, we investigate the characteristics of the node degree distributions constructed by using HVG, for time series corresponding to $28$ chaotic maps and $3$ different stochastic processes. We thoroughly study the methodology proposed by Lacasa and Toral finding several cases for which their hypothesis is not valid. We propose a methodology that uses the HVG together with Information Theory quantifiers. An extensive and careful analysis of the node degree distributions obtained by applying HVG allow us to conclude that the Fisher-Shannon information plane is a remarkable tool able to graphically represent the different nature, deterministic or stochastic, of the systems under study.

In real-world applications, knowledge bases consisting of all the information at hand for a specific domain, along with the current state of affairs, are bound to contain contradictory data coming from different sources, as well as data with varying degrees of uncertainty attached. Likewise, an important aspect of the effort associated with maintaining knowledge bases is deciding what information is no longer useful; pieces of information (such as intelligence reports) may be outdated, may come from sources that have recently been discovered to be of low quality, or abundant evidence may be available that contradicts them. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic structured argumentation framework that arises from the extension of Presumptive Defeasible Logic Programming (PreDeLP) with probabilistic models, and argue that this formalism is capable of addressing the basic issues of handling contradictory and uncertain data. Then, to address the last issue, we focus on the study of non-prioritized belief revision operations over probabilistic PreDeLP programs. We propose a set of rationality postulates -- based on well-known ones developed for classical knowledge bases -- that characterize how such operations should behave, and study a class of operators along with theoretical relationships with the proposed postulates, including a representation theorem stating the equivalence between this class and the class of operators characterized by the postulates.

Statistical analysis of social networks and other relational data is becoming an increasingly important problem as the scope and availability of network data increases. Network data--such as the friendships in a social network--is often dynamic in a sense that relations between entities rise and decay over time. A fundamental problem in the analysis of such dynamic network data is to extract a summary of the common structure and the dynamics of the underlying relations between entities. Accurate models of structure and dynamics of network data have many applications. They allow us to predict missing relationships [20, 21, 23], recommend potential new relations [2], identify clusters and groups of nodes [1, 29], forecast future links [4, 9, 11, 24], and even predict group growth and longevity [15]. Here we present a new approach to modeling network dynamics by considering time-evolving interactions between groups of nodes as well as the arrival and departure dynamics of individual nodes to these groups. We develop a dynamic network model, Dynamic Multi-group Membership Graph Model, that identifies the birth and death of individual groups as well as the dynamics of node joining and leaving groups in order to explain changes in the underlying network linking structure. Our nonparametric model considers an infinite number of latent groups, where each node can belong to multiple groups simultaneously. We capture the evolution of individual node group memberships via a Factorial Hidden Markov model.

We propose a boosting method, DirectBoost, a greedy coordinate descent algorithm that builds an ensemble classifier of weak classifiers through directly minimizing empirical classification error over labeled training examples; once the training classification error is reduced to a local coordinatewise minimum, DirectBoost runs a greedy coordinate ascent algorithm that continuously adds weak classifiers to maximize any targeted arbitrarily defined margins until reaching a local coordinatewise maximum of the margins in a certain sense. Experimental results on a collection of machine-learning benchmark datasets show that DirectBoost gives consistently better results than AdaBoost, LogitBoost, LPBoost with column generation and BrownBoost, and is noise tolerant when it maximizes an n'th order bottom sample margin.

Infinite mixture models are commonly used for clustering. One can sample from the posterior of mixture assignments by Monte Carlo methods or find its maximum a posteriori solution by optimization. However, in some problems the posterior is diffuse and it is hard to interpret the sampled partitionings. In this paper, we introduce novel statistics based on block sizes for representing sample sets of partitionings and feature allocations. We develop an element-based definition of entropy to quantify segmentation among their elements. Then we propose a simple algorithm called entropy agglomeration (EA) to summarize and visualize this information. Experiments on various infinite mixture posteriors as well as a feature allocation dataset demonstrate that the proposed statistics are useful in practice.

Urban mobility is not only one of the pillars of modern economic systems, but also a key issue in the quest for equality of opportunity, once it can improve access to other services. Currently, however, there are a number of negative issues related to traffic, especially in mega-cities, such as economical issues (cost of opportunity caused by delays), environmental (externalities related to emissions of pollutants), and social (traffic accidents). Solutions to these issues are more and more closely tied to information and communication technology. Indeed, a search in the technical literature (using the keyword urban traffic" to filter out articles on data network traffic) retrieved the following number of articles (as of December 3, 2013): 9,443 (ACM Digital Library), 26,054 (Scopus), and 1,730,000 (Google Scholar). Moreover, articles listed in the ACM query relate to conferences as diverse as MobiCom, CHI, PADS, and AAMAS.

VT (Viterbi training), or hard EM, is an efficient way of parameter learning for probabilistic models with hidden variables. Given an observation $y$, it searches for a state of hidden variables $x$ that maximizes $p(x,y \mid \theta)$ by coordinate ascent on parameters $\theta$ and $x$. In this paper we introduce VT to PRISM, a logic-based probabilistic modeling system for generative models. VT improves PRISM in three ways. First VT in PRISM converges faster than EM in PRISM due to the VT's termination condition. Second, parameters learned by VT often show good prediction performance compared to those learned by EM. We conducted two parsing experiments with probabilistic grammars while learning parameters by a variety of inference methods, i.e.\ VT, EM, MAP and VB. The result is that VT achieved the best parsing accuracy among them in both experiments. Also we conducted a similar experiment for classification tasks where a hidden variable is not a prediction target unlike probabilistic grammars. We found that in such a case VT does not necessarily yield superior performance. Third since VT always deals with a single probability of a single explanation, Viterbi explanation, the exclusiveness condition that is imposed on PRISM programs is no more required if we learn parameters by VT. Last but not least we can say that as VT in PRISM is general and applicable to any PRISM program, it largely reduces the need for the user to develop a specific VT algorithm for a specific model. Furthermore since VT in PRISM can be used just by setting a PRISM flag appropriately, it makes VT easily accessible to (probabilistic) logic programmers. To appear in Theory and Practice of Logic Programming (TPLP).

Infinite mixture models are commonly used for clustering. One can sample from the posterior of mixture assignments by Monte Carlo methods or find its maximum a posteriori solution by optimization. However, in some problems the posterior is diffuse and it is hard to interpret the sampled partitionings. In this paper, we introduce novel statistics based on block sizes for representing sample sets of partitionings and feature allocations. We develop an element-based definition of entropy to quantify segmentation among their elements. Then we propose a simple algorithm called entropy agglomeration (EA) to summarize and visualize this information. Experiments on various infinite mixture posteriors as well as a feature allocation dataset demonstrate that the proposed statistics are useful in practice.

In classical, AGM-style belief change, it is assumed that the underlying logic contains classical propositional logic. This is clearly a limiting assumption, particularly in Artificial Intelligence. Consequently there has been recent interest in studying belief change in approaches where the full expressivity of classical propositional logic is not obtained. In this paper we investigate belief contraction in Horn knowledge bases. We point out that the obvious extension to the Horn case, involving Horn remainder sets as a starting point, is problematic. Not only do Horn remainder sets have undesirable properties, but also some desirable Horn contraction functions are not captured by this approach. For Horn belief set contraction, we develop an account in terms of a model-theoretic characterisation involving weak remainder sets. Maxichoice and partial meet Horn contraction is specified, and we show that the problems arising with earlier work are resolved by these approaches. As well, constructions of the specific operators and sets of postulates are provided, and representation results are obtained. We also examine Horn package contraction, or contraction by a set of formulas. Again, we give a construction and postulate set, linking them via a representation result. Last, we investigate the closely-related notion of forgetting in Horn clauses. This work is arguably interesting since Horn clauses have found widespread use in AI; as well, the results given here may potentially be extended to other areas which make use of Horn-like reasoning, such as logic programming, rule-based systems, and description logics. Finally, since Horn reasoning is weaker than classical reasoning, this work sheds light on the foundations of belief change