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Efficient adjustment sets for population average treatment effect estimation in non-parametric causal graphical models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The method of covariate adjustment is often used for estimation of population average treatment effects in observational studies. Graphical rules for determining all valid covariate adjustment sets from an assumed causal graphical model are well known. Restricting attention to causal linear models, a recent article derived two novel graphical criteria: one to compare the asymptotic variance of linear regression treatment effect estimators that control for certain distinct adjustment sets and another to identify the optimal adjustment set that yields the least squares treatment effect estimator with the smallest asymptotic variance among consistent adjusted least squares estimators. In this paper we show that the same graphical criteria can be used in non-parametric causal graphical models when treatment effects are estimated by contrasts involving non-parametrically adjusted estimators of the interventional means. We also provide a graphical criterion for determining the optimal adjustment set among the minimal adjustment sets, which is valid for both linear and non-parametric estimators. We provide a new graphical criterion for comparing time dependent adjustment sets, that is, sets comprised by covariates that adjust for future treatments and that are themselves affected by earlier treatments. We show by example that uniformly optimal time dependent adjustment sets do not always exist. In addition, for point interventions, we provide a sound and complete graphical criterion for determining when a non-parametric optimally adjusted estimator of an interventional mean, or of a contrast of interventional means, is as efficient as an efficient estimator of the same parameter that exploits the information in the conditional independencies encoded in the non-parametric causal graphical model.


STConvS2S: Spatiotemporal Convolutional Sequence to Sequence Network for Weather Forecasting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Applying machine learning models to meteorological data brings many opportunities to the Geosciences field, such as predicting future weather conditions more accurately. In recent years, modeling meteorological data with deep neural networks has become a relevant area of investigation. These works apply either recurrent neural networks (RNNs) or some hybrid approach mixing RNNs and convolutional neural networks (CNNs). In this work, we propose STConvS2S (short for Spatiotemporal Convolutional Sequence to Sequence Network), a new deep learning architecture built for learning both spatial and temporal data dependencies in weather data, using fully convolutional layers. Computational experiments using observations of air temperature and rainfall show that our architecture captures spatiotemporal context and outperforms baseline models and the state-of-art architecture for weather forecasting task.


Human-In-The-Loop Automatic Program Repair

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--We introduce L EARN2 FIX, the first human-in-the-loop, semiautomatic repair technique when no bug oracle-except for the user who is reporting the bug-is available. Our approach negotiates with the user the condition under which the bug is observed. Only when a budget of queries to the user is exhausted, it attempts to repair the bug. A query can be thought of as the following question: "When executing this alternative test input, the program produces the following output; is the bug observed"? Through systematic queries, L EARN2 FIX trains an automatic bug oracle that becomes increasingly more accurate in predicting the user's response. Our key challenge is to maximize the oracle's accuracy in predicting which tests are bug-revealing given a small budget of queries. From the alternative tests that were labeled by the user, test-driven automatic repair produces the patch. Our experiments demonstrate that L EARN2 FIX learns a sufficiently accurate automatic oracle with a reasonably low labeling effort (lt. Given L EARN2 FIX's test suite, the GenProg test-driven repair tool produces a higher-quality patch (i.e., passing a larger proportion of validation tests) than using manual test suites provided with the repair benchmark. I NTRODUCTION Automatic program repair (APR) [1], [2] holds the promise of automating the tedious, manual task of patching bugs. In their seminal paper, Le Goues and colleagues [3] demonstrated that APR is both feasible and cost-effective even at the scale of several million lines of code. Given a failing test suite, APR changes the buggy program such that all test cases pass. However, what if no such test suite is available? Suppose, a user reports a bug and provides a test input to reproduce the bug. We envision a semiautomatic approach that keeps the human-in-the-loop and negotiates the condition under which the bug is observed before repairing the bug. Strategically, the user is asked: " F or this other input, the program produces that output; is the bug observed "? While the user might not have the expertise to understand the source code or to produce a patch, it seems reasonable to ask to distinguish expected from unexpected program behavior. Iteratively, an automatic bug oracle is trained to predict the user's responses with increasing accuracy. Using the trained oracle, the user can be asked more strategically.


AI surveillance proliferating, with China exporting tech to over 60 countries, NEC 14 and IBM 11: report

The Japan Times

Chinese companies have exported artificial intelligence surveillance technology to more than 60 countries including Iran, Myanmar, Venezuela, Zimbabwe and others with dismal human rights records, according to a report by a U.S. think tank. With the technology involving facial recognition systems that the Communist Party uses to crack down on Uighurs and other Muslim minorities in China's far western Xinjiang region, the report calls Beijing a global driver of "authoritarian tech." The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace released the report amid concerns that authoritarian regimes would use the technology to boost their power and data could be sent back to China. "Technology linked to Chinese companies -- particularly Huawei, Hikvision, Dahua and ZTE -- supply AI surveillance technology in 63 countries, 36 of which have signed onto China's Belt and Road Initiative," it said. Critics say the BRI, President Xi Jinping's signature cross-border infrastructure project, is intended to draw countries in Asia, Africa and Europe deeper into Beijing's economic orbit.


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A novel spike-and-wave automatic detection in EEG signals

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Spike-and-wave discharge (SWD) pattern classification in electroencephalography (EEG) signals is a key problem in signal processing. It is particularly important to develop a SWD automatic detection method in long-term EEG recordings since the task of marking the patters manually is time consuming, difficult and error-prone. This paper presents a new detection method with a low computational complexity that can be easily trained if standard medical protocols are respected. The detection procedure is as follows: First, each EEG signal is divided into several time segments and for each time segment, the Morlet 1-D decomposition is applied. Then three parameters are extracted from the wavelet coefficients of each segment: scale (using a generalized Gaussian statistical model), variance and median. This is followed by a k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) classifier to detect the spike-and-wave pattern in each EEG channel from these three parameters. A total of 106 spike-and-wave and 106 non-spike-and-wave were used for training, while 69 new annotated EEG segments from six subjects were used for classification. In these circumstances, the proposed methodology achieved 100% accuracy. These results generate new research opportunities for the underlying causes of the so-called absence epilepsy in long-term EEG recordings.


Is Artificial Intelligence in Agriculture The Way of the Future?

#artificialintelligence

AI having applications in various sectors including agriculture has completely transformed the approaches of the agriculture market. AI in Agriculture helps the farmers in examining weather, soil, and field data to improve farming operations and crop productivity. AI in the agriculture market seems to be driven by the Internet of Things (IoT) due to its ability to revolutionize and transform current farming methods to a new level. Although, collecting accurate field data requires high initial investments which may hamper the growth of AI in the agriculture market. Some of the leading companies influencing the market are Ag Leader Technology, Trimble, Agribotix, Granular, SAP, Mavrx, PrecisionHawk, aWhere, IBM and Prospera Technologies.


'Post-chemical world' takes shape as agribusiness goes green

The Japan Times

CHICAGO – Agribusiness is increasingly turning to natural and sustainable alternatives to chemicals as consumers rebuff genetically modified foods and concerns grow over Big Ag's role in climate change. At the heart of the trend are innovations that harness beneficial microorganizms in the soil, including seed-coatings of naturally occurring bacteria and fungi that can do the same work as traditional chemicals, from warding off pests to helping plants flourish, according to a global patent study by research firm GreyB Services. Much of the research in crop biotech is centered in the United States, China, Germany, Japan and South Korea, according to the U.N. agency WIPO. "Both entrepreneurs and investors are saying, 'Hey, the writing is on the wall, we're entering a post-chemical world,'" said Rob LeClerc, chief executive officer of AgFunder, an online venture-capital platform. "The seed companies who have billions in market cap are like'We need to do something,' and everyone recognizes the opportunity."


A Gap Analysis of Low-Cost Outdoor Air Quality Sensor In-Field Calibration

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In recent years, interest in monitoring air quality has been growing. Traditional environmental monitoring stations are very expensive, both to acquire and to maintain, therefore their deployment is generally very sparse. This is a problem when trying to generate air quality maps with a fine spatial resolution. Given the general interest in air quality monitoring, low-cost air quality sensors have become an active area of research and development. Low-cost air quality sensors can be deployed at a finer level of granularity than traditional monitoring stations. Furthermore, they can be portable and mobile. Low-cost air quality sensors, however, present some challenges: they suffer from cross-sensitivities between different ambient pollutants; they can be affected by external factors such as traffic, weather changes, and human behavior; and their accuracy degrades over time. Some promising machine learning approaches can help us obtain highly accurate measurements with low-cost air quality sensors. In this article, we present low-cost sensor technologies, and we survey and assess machine learning-based calibration techniques for their calibration. We conclude by presenting open questions and directions for future research.