Deep learning-based models have recently outperformed state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting models, such as for predicting El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, current deep learning models are based on convolutional neural networks which are difficult to interpret and can fail to model large-scale atmospheric patterns called teleconnections. Hence, we propose the application of spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks (GNN) to forecast ENSO at long lead times, finer granularity and improved predictive skill than current state-of-the-art methods. The explicit modeling of information flow via edges may also allow for more interpretable forecasts. Preliminary results are promising and outperform state-of-the art systems for projections 1 and 3 months ahead.

Artificial intelligence is growing ever more powerful and entering people's daily lives, yet often we don't know what goes on inside these systems. Their non-transparency could fuel practical problems, or even racism, which is why researchers increasingly want to open this'black box' and make AI explainable. When decisions are made by artificial intelligence, it can be difficult for the end user to understand the reasoning behind them. In February of 2013, Eric Loomis was driving around in the small town of La Crosse in Wisconsin, US, when he was stopped by the police. The car he was driving turned out to have been involved in a shooting, and he was arrested.

São Paulo – The technology has evolved so fast that in 2012, whoever did a search on Google used all the computational power that made it possible for NASA astronauts to go to the Moon in 1969. More technologies like this can change the world in coming years, according to Totvs, one of the largest providers of management software solutions and productivity platforms. In the view of Vicente Goetten, director of Totvs Labs, the research laboratory of Totvs, technology still evolves following the concepts of Moore's law, that is, exponentially. For this reason, its advance causes some phenomena, such as an initial disillusionment of the public with news in the embryonic phase; the digitization of processes; disruption (when a technology replaces an old method); dematerialization (for example, the exchange of MP3 players for cell phones); demonetization, such as that caused by WhatsApp in relation to SMS; and, finally, democratization. Totvs Labs released a list of eight technologies that can change the world by 2021.

Beyond that, almost every data set is further scaled prior to (data)processing to meet the requirements of the employed data analysis method, such as the introduction of artificial metrics, the numerical representation of nominal features, etc. This scaling is usually accompanied by a grade of detail, which in turn is becoming more and more of a problem for data science tasks as the availability of features increases and their human explainability decreases. Often used methods to deal with this problem from the field of machine learning, such as principal component analysis, do enforce particular, possible inapt, levels of measurement, e.g., food tastes represented by real numbers, and amplify the problem for explainability. Therefore, understanding the set of possible scaling maps, identifying its (algebraic) properties, and deriving to some extent human explainable control over it, is a pressing problem. This is especially important since found patterns and dependencies may be artifacts of some scaling map and may therefore corrupt any subsequent task,e.g., classification tasks.

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms and evolution strategies (ES) have been applied to various tasks, showing excellent performances. These have the opposite properties, with DRL having good sample efficiency and poor stability, while ES being vice versa. Recently, there have been attempts to combine these algorithms, but these methods fully rely on synchronous update scheme, making it not ideal to maximize the benefits of the parallelism in ES. To solve this challenge, asynchronous update scheme was introduced, which is capable of good time-efficiency and diverse policy exploration. In this paper, we introduce an Asynchronous Evolution Strategy-Reinforcement Learning (AES-RL) that maximizes the parallel efficiency of ES and integrates it with policy gradient methods. Specifically, we propose 1) a novel framework to merge ES and DRL asynchronously and 2) various asynchronous update methods that can take all advantages of asynchronism, ES, and DRL, which are exploration and time efficiency, stability, and sample efficiency, respectively. The proposed framework and update methods are evaluated in continuous control benchmark work, showing superior performance as well as time efficiency compared to the previous methods.

Contemporary neural networks still fall short of human-level generalization, which extends far beyond our direct experiences. In this paper, we argue that the underlying cause for this shortcoming is their inability to dynamically and flexibly bind information that is distributed throughout the network. This binding problem affects their capacity to acquire a compositional understanding of the world in terms of symbol-like entities (like objects), which is crucial for generalizing in predictable and systematic ways. To address this issue, we propose a unifying framework that revolves around forming meaningful entities from unstructured sensory inputs (segregation), maintaining this separation of information at a representational level (representation), and using these entities to construct new inferences, predictions, and behaviors (composition). Our analysis draws inspiration from a wealth of research in neuroscience and cognitive psychology, and surveys relevant mechanisms from the machine learning literature, to help identify a combination of inductive biases that allow symbolic information processing to emerge naturally in neural networks. We believe that a compositional approach to AI, in terms of grounded symbol-like representations, is of fundamental importance for realizing human-level generalization, and we hope that this paper may contribute towards that goal as a reference and inspiration.

In this era of active development of autonomous vehicles, it becomes crucial to provide driving systems with the capacity to explain their decisions. In this work, we focus on generating high-level driving explanations as the vehicle drives. We present BEEF, for BEhavior Explanation with Fusion, a deep architecture which explains the behavior of a trajectory prediction model. Supervised by annotations of human driving decisions justifications, BEEF learns to fuse features from multiple levels. Leveraging recent advances in the multi-modal fusion literature, BEEF is carefully designed to model the correlations between high-level decisions features and mid-level perceptual features. The flexibility and efficiency of our approach are validated with extensive experiments on the HDD and BDD-X datasets.

The problem of fair classification can be mollified if we develop a method to remove the embedded sensitive information from the classification features. This line of separating the sensitive information is developed through the causal inference, and the causal inference enables the counterfactual generations to contrast the what-if case of the opposite sensitive attribute. Along with this separation with the causality, a frequent assumption in the deep latent causal model defines a single latent variable to absorb the entire exogenous uncertainty of the causal graph. However, we claim that such structure cannot distinguish the 1) information caused by the intervention (i.e., sensitive variable) and 2) information correlated with the intervention from the data. Therefore, this paper proposes Disentangled Causal Effect Variational Autoencoder (DCEVAE) to resolve this limitation by disentangling the exogenous uncertainty into two latent variables: either 1) independent to interventions or 2) correlated to interventions without causality. Particularly, our disentangling approach preserves the latent variable correlated to interventions in generating counterfactual examples. We show that our method estimates the total effect and the counterfactual effect without a complete causal graph. By adding a fairness regularization, DCEVAE generates a counterfactual fair dataset while losing less original information. Also, DCEVAE generates natural counterfactual images by only flipping sensitive information. Additionally, we theoretically show the differences in the covariance structures of DCEVAE and prior works from the perspective of the latent disentanglement.

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a class of kernel methods that have shown to be very useful in geoscience applications. They are widely used because they are simple, flexible and provide very accurate estimates for nonlinear problems, especially in parameter retrieval. An addition to a predictive mean function, GPs come equipped with a useful property: the predictive variance function which provides confidence intervals for the predictions. The GP formulation usually assumes that there is no input noise in the training and testing points, only in the observations. However, this is often not the case in Earth observation problems where an accurate assessment of the instrument error is usually available. In this paper, we showcase how the derivative of a GP model can be used to provide an analytical error propagation formulation and we analyze the predictive variance and the propagated error terms in a temperature prediction problem from infrared sounding data.

Anomalous change detection (ACD) is an important problem in remote sensing image processing. Detecting not only pervasive but also anomalous or extreme changes has many applications for which methodologies are available. This paper introduces a nonlinear extension of a full family of anomalous change detectors. In particular, we focus on algorithms that utilize Gaussian and elliptically contoured (EC) distribution and extend them to their nonlinear counterparts based on the theory of reproducing kernels' Hilbert space. We illustrate the performance of the kernel methods introduced in both pervasive and ACD problems with real and simulated changes in multispectral and hyperspectral imagery with different resolutions (AVIRIS, Sentinel-2, WorldView-2, and Quickbird). A wide range of situations is studied in real examples, including droughts, wildfires, and urbanization. Excellent performance in terms of detection accuracy compared to linear formulations is achieved, resulting in improved detection accuracy and reduced false-alarm rates. Results also reveal that the EC assumption may be still valid in Hilbert spaces. We provide an implementation of the algorithms as well as a database of natural anomalous changes in real scenarios http://isp.uv.es/kacd.html.