We present a comparison of several online machine learning techniques for tactical learning and proving in the Coq proof assistant. This work builds on top of Tactician, a plugin for Coq that learns from proofs written by the user to synthesize new proofs. This learning happens in an online manner -- meaning that Tactician's machine learning model is updated immediately every time the user performs a step in an interactive proof. This has important advantages compared to the more studied offline learning systems: (1) it provides the user with a seamless, interactive experience with Tactician and, (2) it takes advantage of locality of proof similarity, which means that proofs similar to the current proof are likely to be found close by. We implement two online methods, namely approximate $k$-nearest neighbors based on locality sensitive hashing forests and random decision forests. Additionally, we conduct experiments with gradient boosted trees in an offline setting using XGBoost. We compare the relative performance of Tactician using these three learning methods on Coq's standard library.

Deep learning-based models have recently outperformed state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting models, such as for predicting El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, current deep learning models are based on convolutional neural networks which are difficult to interpret and can fail to model large-scale atmospheric patterns. In comparison, graph neural networks (GNNs) are capable of modeling large-scale spatial dependencies and are more interpretable due to the explicit modeling of information flow through edge connections. We propose the first application of graph neural networks to seasonal forecasting. We design a novel graph connectivity learning module that enables our GNN model to learn large-scale spatial interactions jointly with the actual ENSO forecasting task. Our model, \graphino, outperforms state-of-the-art deep learning-based models for forecasts up to six months ahead. Additionally, we show that our model is more interpretable as it learns sensible connectivity structures that correlate with the ENSO anomaly pattern.

A. Relevance of Model Explanations in Real-World Contexts Complex estimation and decision-making tasks have traditionally been analyzed and judged by human experts. Hence, decisions have typically been able to be complemented with human-interpretable justifications, when needed, as experts can normally explain the line-of-thought that led to their own decision-making. However, in the past two decades, algorithmic decision-making has spread increasingly to many relevant societal contexts. Despite the notable enthusiasm for the potential benefit that this type of technology can bring, the underlying methods used are typically not inherently transparent, in the sense that they do not readily provide human-interpretable justifications for their decisions [1]. Moreover, in recent years there is a trend where the most successful algorithms, particularly in complex tasks like machine vision and natural language processing, tend to rely on highly complex models, which has led to a further increase in tension between accuracy and interpretability [2]. Relevant societal contexts where algorithmic decision systems have gained substantial traction include medical diagnosis and treatment [3], counter-terrorism [4], criminal justice [5], and risk assessments for credits and insurance [6]. In such impactful contexts, there is a legitimate need for providing human-interpretable explanations along with the estimations and decisions made. Indeed, lack of interpretability has become a barrier to the adoption of machine learning-based systems in many institutions and companies. Hence the value of complementing ML models with human-interpretable accounts of the statistical rationals behind their estimations, in a way that human decision-makers can more easily understand machine estimations, and even integrate their statistical rationals with qualitative information and human expert judgements.

It is widely known that Google Trends have become one of the most popular free tools used by forecasters both in academics and in the private and public sectors. There are many papers, from several different fields, concluding that Google Trends improve forecasts' accuracy. However, what seems to be widely unknown, is that each sample of Google search data is different from the other, even if you set the same search term, data and location. This means that it is possible to find arbitrary conclusions merely by chance. This paper aims to show why and when it can become a problem and how to overcome this obstacle.

In this paper, we focus on the unsupervised multi-view feature selection which tries to handle high dimensional data in the field of multi-view learning. Although some graph-based methods have achieved satisfactory performance, they ignore the underlying data structure across different views. Besides, their pre-defined laplacian graphs are sensitive to the noises in the original data space, and fail to get the optimal neighbor assignment. To address the above problems, we propose a novel unsupervised multi-view feature selection model based on graph learning, and the contributions are threefold: (1) during the feature selection procedure, the consensus similarity graph shared by different views is learned. Therefore, the proposed model can reveal the data relationship from the feature subset. (2) a reasonable rank constraint is added to optimize the similarity matrix to obtain more accurate information; (3) an auto-weighted framework is presented to assign view weights adaptively, and an effective alternative iterative algorithm is proposed to optimize the problem. Experiments on various datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method compared with the state-of-the-art methods.

This paper deals with an important subject in classification problems addressed by machine learning techniques: the evaluation of the influence of each of the features on the classification of individuals. Specifically, a measure of that influence is introduced using the Shapley value of cooperative games. In addition, an axiomatic characterisation of the proposed measure is provided based on properties of efficiency and balanced contributions. Furthermore, some experiments have been designed in order to validate the appropriate performance of such measure. Finally, the methodology introduced is applied to a sample of COVID-19 patients to study the influence of certain demographic or risk factors on various events of interest related to the evolution of the disease.

Knowledge bases often consist of facts which are harvested from a variety of sources, many of which are noisy and some of which conflict, resulting in a level of uncertainty for each triple. Knowledge bases are also often incomplete, prompting the use of embedding methods to generalize from known facts, however, existing embedding methods only model triple-level uncertainty, and reasoning results lack global consistency. To address these shortcomings, we propose BEUrRE, a novel uncertain knowledge graph embedding method with calibrated probabilistic semantics. BEUrRE models each entity as a box (i.e. axis-aligned hyperrectangle) and relations between two entities as affine transforms on the head and tail entity boxes. The geometry of the boxes allows for efficient calculation of intersections and volumes, endowing the model with calibrated probabilistic semantics and facilitating the incorporation of relational constraints. Extensive experiments on two benchmark datasets show that BEUrRE consistently outperforms baselines on confidence prediction and fact ranking due to its probabilistic calibration and ability to capture high-order dependencies among facts.

Reasoning about tabular information presents unique challenges to modern NLP approaches which largely rely on pre-trained contextualized embeddings of text. In this paper, we study these challenges through the problem of tabular natural language inference. We propose easy and effective modifications to how information is presented to a model for this task. We show via systematic experiments that these strategies substantially improve tabular inference performance.

We take the first step towards multilingual style transfer by creating and releasing XFORMAL, a benchmark of multiple formal reformulations of informal text in Brazilian Portuguese, French, and Italian. Results on XFORMAL suggest that state-of-the-art style transfer approaches perform close to simple baselines, indicating that style transfer is even more challenging when moving multilingual.

Score-based generative models provide state-of-the-art quality for image and audio synthesis. Sampling from these models is performed iteratively, typically employing a discretized series of noise levels and a predefined scheme. In this note, we first overview three common sampling schemes for models trained with denoising score matching. Next, we focus on one of them, consistent annealed sampling, and study its hyper-parameter boundaries. We then highlight a possible formulation of such hyper-parameter that explicitly considers those boundaries and facilitates tuning when using few or a variable number of steps. Finally, we highlight some connections of the formulation with other sampling schemes.