South America
Systematic assessment of the quality of fit of the stochastic block model for empirical networks
Vaca-Ramírez, Felipe, Peixoto, Tiago P.
We perform a systematic analysis of the quality of fit of the stochastic block model (SBM) for 275 empirical networks spanning a wide range of domains and orders of size magnitude. We employ posterior predictive model checking as a criterion to assess the quality of fit, which involves comparing networks generated by the inferred model with the empirical network, according to a set of network descriptors. We observe that the SBM is capable of providing an accurate description for the majority of networks considered, but falls short of saturating all modeling requirements. In particular, networks possessing a large diameter and slow-mixing random walks tend to be badly described by the SBM. However, contrary to what is often assumed, networks with a high abundance of triangles can be well described by the SBM in many cases. We demonstrate that simple network descriptors can be used to evaluate whether or not the SBM can provide a sufficiently accurate representation, potentially pointing to possible model extensions that can systematically improve the expressiveness of this class of models.
Frame Shift Prediction
Yong, Zheng-Xin, Watson, Patrick D., Torrent, Tiago Timponi, Czulo, Oliver, Baker, Collin F.
Frame shift is a cross-linguistic phenomenon in translation which results in corresponding pairs of linguistic material evoking different frames. The ability to predict frame shifts enables automatic creation of multilingual FrameNets through annotation projection. Here, we propose the Frame Shift Prediction task and demonstrate that graph attention networks, combined with auxiliary training, can learn cross-linguistic frame-to-frame correspondence and predict frame shifts.
Hidden Agenda: a Social Deduction Game with Diverse Learned Equilibria
Kopparapu, Kavya, Duéñez-Guzmán, Edgar A., Matyas, Jayd, Vezhnevets, Alexander Sasha, Agapiou, John P., McKee, Kevin R., Everett, Richard, Marecki, Janusz, Leibo, Joel Z., Graepel, Thore
A key challenge in the study of multiagent cooperation is the need for individual agents not only to cooperate effectively, but to decide with whom to cooperate. This is particularly critical in situations when other agents have hidden, possibly misaligned motivations and goals. Social deduction games offer an avenue to study how individuals might learn to synthesize potentially unreliable information about others, and elucidate their true motivations. In this work, we present Hidden Agenda, a two-team social deduction game that provides a 2D environment for studying learning agents in scenarios of unknown team alignment. The environment admits a rich set of strategies for both teams. Reinforcement learning agents trained in Hidden Agenda show that agents can learn a variety of behaviors, including partnering and voting without need for communication in natural language.
NumHTML: Numeric-Oriented Hierarchical Transformer Model for Multi-task Financial Forecasting
Yang, Linyi, Li, Jiazheng, Dong, Ruihai, Zhang, Yue, Smyth, Barry
Financial forecasting has been an important and active area of machine learning research because of the challenges it presents and the potential rewards that even minor improvements in prediction accuracy or forecasting may entail. Traditionally, financial forecasting has heavily relied on quantitative indicators and metrics derived from structured financial statements. Earnings conference call data, including text and audio, is an important source of unstructured data that has been used for various prediction tasks using deep earning and related approaches. However, current deep learning-based methods are limited in the way that they deal with numeric data; numbers are typically treated as plain-text tokens without taking advantage of their underlying numeric structure. This paper describes a numeric-oriented hierarchical transformer model to predict stock returns, and financial risk using multi-modal aligned earnings calls data by taking advantage of the different categories of numbers (monetary, temporal, percentages etc.) and their magnitude. We present the results of a comprehensive evaluation of NumHTML against several state-of-the-art baselines using a real-world publicly available dataset. The results indicate that NumHTML significantly outperforms the current state-of-the-art across a variety of evaluation metrics and that it has the potential to offer significant financial gains in a practical trading context.
Multi Document Reading Comprehension
Reading Comprehension (RC) is a task of answering a question from a given passage or a set of passages. In the case of multiple passages, the task is to find the best possible answer to the question. Recent trials and experiments in the field of Natural Language Processing (NLP) have proved that machines can be provided with the ability to not only process the text in the passage and understand its meaning to answer the question from the passage, but also can surpass the Human Performance on many datasets such as Standford's Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD). This paper presents a study on Reading Comprehension and its evolution in Natural Language Processing over the past few decades. We shall also study how the task of Single Document Reading Comprehension acts as a building block for our Multi-Document Reading Comprehension System. In the latter half of the paper, we'll be studying about a recently proposed model for Multi-Document Reading Comprehension - RE3QA that is comprised of a Reader, Retriever, and a Re-ranker based network to fetch the best possible answer from a given set of passages.
Money in the Metaverse
Years ago, while on vacation in the Northwest, my husband and I rented a room in the home of a middle-aged couple, one of whom had recently retired. The house was old, beautiful, and cozily laden with objects that signalled domestic inertia. It sat on a lush, wild sprawl of farmland that immediately inspired fantasies of leaving San Francisco and our tech jobs, foraging for mushrooms, administering to septic systems, and turning over soil. One morning over breakfast, conversation shifted to our host's retirement. He was glad to have more time at home with his wife and their dog.
Deep Reinforcement Learning
Deep reinforcement learning has gathered much attention recently. Impressive results were achieved in activities as diverse as autonomous driving, game playing, molecular recombination, and robotics. In all these fields, computer programs have taught themselves to solve difficult problems. They have learned to fly model helicopters and perform aerobatic manoeuvers such as loops and rolls. In some applications they have even become better than the best humans, such as in Atari, Go, poker and StarCraft. The way in which deep reinforcement learning explores complex environments reminds us of how children learn, by playfully trying out things, getting feedback, and trying again. The computer seems to truly possess aspects of human learning; this goes to the heart of the dream of artificial intelligence. The successes in research have not gone unnoticed by educators, and universities have started to offer courses on the subject. The aim of this book is to provide a comprehensive overview of the field of deep reinforcement learning. The book is written for graduate students of artificial intelligence, and for researchers and practitioners who wish to better understand deep reinforcement learning methods and their challenges. We assume an undergraduate-level of understanding of computer science and artificial intelligence; the programming language of this book is Python. We describe the foundations, the algorithms and the applications of deep reinforcement learning. We cover the established model-free and model-based methods that form the basis of the field. Developments go quickly, and we also cover advanced topics: deep multi-agent reinforcement learning, deep hierarchical reinforcement learning, and deep meta learning.
Marginal likelihood computation for model selection and hypothesis testing: an extensive review
Llorente, Fernando, Martino, Luca, Delgado, David, Lopez-Santiago, Javier
This is an up-to-date introduction to, and overview of, marginal likelihood computation for model selection and hypothesis testing. Computing normalizing constants of probability models (or ratio of constants) is a fundamental issue in many applications in statistics, applied mathematics, signal processing and machine learning. This article provides a comprehensive study of the state-of-the-art of the topic. We highlight limitations, benefits, connections and differences among the different techniques. Problems and possible solutions with the use of improper priors are also described. Some of the most relevant methodologies are compared through theoretical comparisons and numerical experiments.
ZeroBERTo -- Leveraging Zero-Shot Text Classification by Topic Modeling
Alcoforado, Alexandre, Ferraz, Thomas Palmeira, Gerber, Rodrigo, Bustos, Enzo, Oliveira, André Seidel, Veloso, Bruno Miguel, Siqueira, Fabio Levy, Costa, Anna Helena Reali
Traditional text classification approaches often require a good amount of labeled data, which is difficult to obtain, especially in restricted domains or less widespread languages. This lack of labeled data has led to the rise of low-resource methods, that assume low data availability in natural language processing. Among them, zero-shot learning stands out, which consists of learning a classifier without any previously labeled data. The best results reported with this approach use language models such as Transformers, but fall into two problems: high execution time and inability to handle long texts as input. This paper proposes a new model, ZeroBERTo, which leverages an unsupervised clustering step to obtain a compressed data representation before the classification task. We show that ZeroBERTo has better performance for long inputs and shorter execution time, outperforming XLM-R by about 12 % in the F1 score in the FolhaUOL dataset.
ExAID: A Multimodal Explanation Framework for Computer-Aided Diagnosis of Skin Lesions
Lucieri, Adriano, Bajwa, Muhammad Naseer, Braun, Stephan Alexander, Malik, Muhammad Imran, Dengel, Andreas, Ahmed, Sheraz
One principal impediment in the successful deployment of AI-based Computer-Aided Diagnosis (CAD) systems in clinical workflows is their lack of transparent decision making. Although commonly used eXplainable AI methods provide some insight into opaque algorithms, such explanations are usually convoluted and not readily comprehensible except by highly trained experts. The explanation of decisions regarding the malignancy of skin lesions from dermoscopic images demands particular clarity, as the underlying medical problem definition is itself ambiguous. This work presents ExAID (Explainable AI for Dermatology), a novel framework for biomedical image analysis, providing multi-modal concept-based explanations consisting of easy-to-understand textual explanations supplemented by visual maps justifying the predictions. ExAID relies on Concept Activation Vectors to map human concepts to those learnt by arbitrary Deep Learning models in latent space, and Concept Localization Maps to highlight concepts in the input space. This identification of relevant concepts is then used to construct fine-grained textual explanations supplemented by concept-wise location information to provide comprehensive and coherent multi-modal explanations. All information is comprehensively presented in a diagnostic interface for use in clinical routines. An educational mode provides dataset-level explanation statistics and tools for data and model exploration to aid medical research and education. Through rigorous quantitative and qualitative evaluation of ExAID, we show the utility of multi-modal explanations for CAD-assisted scenarios even in case of wrong predictions. We believe that ExAID will provide dermatologists an effective screening tool that they both understand and trust. Moreover, it will be the basis for similar applications in other biomedical imaging fields.