In contrast to the advances in characterizing the sample complexity for solving Markov decision processes (MDPs), the optimal statistical complexity for solving constrained MDPs (CMDPs) remains unknown. We resolve this question by providing minimax upper and lower bounds on the sample complexity for learning near-optimal policies in a discounted CMDP with access to a generative model (simulator). In particular, we design a model-based algorithm that addresses two settings: (i) relaxed feasibility, where small constraint violations are allowed, and (ii) strict feasibility, where the output policy is required to satisfy the constraint. For (i), we prove that our algorithm returns an $\epsilon$-optimal policy with probability $1 - \delta$, by making $\tilde{O}\left(\frac{S A \log(1/\delta)}{(1 - \gamma)^3 \epsilon^2}\right)$ queries to the generative model, thus matching the sample-complexity for unconstrained MDPs. For (ii), we show that the algorithm's sample complexity is upper-bounded by $\tilde{O} \left(\frac{S A \, \log(1/\delta)}{(1 - \gamma)^5 \, \epsilon^2 \zeta^2} \right)$ where $\zeta$ is the problem-dependent Slater constant that characterizes the size of the feasible region. Finally, we prove a matching lower-bound for the strict feasibility setting, thus obtaining the first near minimax optimal bounds for discounted CMDPs. Our results show that learning CMDPs is as easy as MDPs when small constraint violations are allowed, but inherently more difficult when we demand zero constraint violation.

Ground assets deployed in a cluttered environment with randomized obstacles (e.g., a forest) may experience line of sight (LoS) obstruction due to those obstacles. Air assets can be deployed in the vicinity to aid the communication by establishing two-hop paths between the ground assets. Obstacles that are taller than a position-dependent critical height may still obstruct the LoS between a ground asset and an air asset. In this paper, we provide an analytical framework for computing the probability of obtaining a LoS path in a Poisson forest. Given the locations and heights of a ground asset and an air asset, we establish the critical height, which is a function of distance. To account for this dependence on distance, the blocking is modeled as an inhomogenous Poisson point process, and the LoS probability is its void probability. Examples and closed-form expressions are provided for two obstruction height distributions: uniform and truncated Gaussian. The examples are validated through simulation. Additionally, the end-to-end throughput is determined and shown to be a metric that balances communication distance with the impact of LoS blockage. Throughput is used to determine the range at which it is better to relay communications through the air asset, and, when the air asset is deployed, its optimal height.

By and large, existing computational models of visual attention tacitly assume perfect vision and full access to the stimulus and thereby deviate from foveated biological vision. Moreover, modeling top-down attention is generally reduced to the integration of semantic features without incorporating the signal of a high-level visual tasks that have been shown to partially guide human attention. We propose the Neural Visual Attention (NeVA) algorithm to generate visual scanpaths in a top-down manner. With our method, we explore the ability of neural networks on which we impose a biologically-inspired foveated vision constraint to generate human-like scanpaths without directly training for this objective. The loss of a neural network performing a downstream visual task (i.e., classification or reconstruction) flexibly provides top-down guidance to the scanpath. Extensive experiments show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art unsupervised human attention models in terms of similarity to human scanpaths. Additionally, the flexibility of the framework allows to quantitatively investigate the role of different tasks in the generated visual behaviors. Finally, we demonstrate the superiority of the approach in a novel experiment that investigates the utility of scanpaths in real-world applications, where imperfect viewing conditions are given.

Brazil is the most likely winner of the 2022 football World Cup according to a prediction model from the Alan Turing Institute in London. The publicly accessible model gives Brazil a 1-in-4 chance, with England's chances put at less than 1 in 10. Many people, from bookies to bankers, have run models trying to predict the winner and losers of the men's football 2022 World Cup in Qatar, but most of these models are run behind closed doors. Nick Barlow at the Alan Turing Institute and his colleagues have developed a model that people can run on their laptops at home, with 1000 tournament run-throughs taking 15 minutes on an average laptop. "It's quite important to us for most of the things we do that we make them open source," says Barlow. "We encourage people to get involved, to use our code and to contribute to it."

Just three days before England kick off their FIFA World Cup campaign against Iran, scientists have a rather pessimistic forecast. The experts, based at London's Alan Turing Institute, say Gareth Southgate's men have only a seven per cent chance of winning the World Cup for the first time since 1966. However, out of the 32 participating teams, England is the fifth mostly likely team to bring home the trophy, just behind the likes of France, Belgium and Brazil. Meanwhile, Wales, which is playing in its first World Cup since 1958, has only a 0.5 per cent chance of winning the tournament – and only a 46 per cent chance of making it out of the group stage. Brazil is most likely to win the World Cup this year, according to the team's research.

This work aims to produce landslide density estimates using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite imageries to prioritise emergency resources for rapid response. We use the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Landslide Inventory data annotated by experts after Hurricane Mar\'ia in Puerto Rico on Sept 20, 2017, and their subsequent susceptibility study which uses extensive additional information such as precipitation, soil moisture, geological terrain features, closeness to waterways and roads, etc. Since such data might not be available during other events or regions, we aimed to produce a landslide density map using only elevation and SAR data to be useful to decision-makers in rapid response scenarios. The USGS Landslide Inventory contains the coordinates of 71,431 landslide heads (not their full extent) and was obtained by manual inspection of aerial and satellite imagery. It is estimated that around 45\% of the landslides are smaller than a Sentinel-1 typical pixel which is 10m $\times$ 10m, although many are long and thin, probably leaving traces across several pixels. Our method obtains 0.814 AUC in predicting the correct density estimation class at the chip level (128$\times$128 pixels, at Sentinel-1 resolution) using only elevation data and up to three SAR acquisitions pre- and post-hurricane, thus enabling rapid assessment after a disaster. The USGS Susceptibility Study reports a 0.87 AUC, but it is measured at the landslide level and uses additional information sources (such as proximity to fluvial channels, roads, precipitation, etc.) which might not regularly be available in an rapid response emergency scenario.

Autonomous vehicle (AV) navigation in the presence of Human-driven vehicles (HVs) is challenging, as HVs continuously update their policies in response to AVs. In order to navigate safely in the presence of complex AV-HV social interactions, the AVs must learn to predict these changes. Humans are capable of navigating such challenging social interaction settings because of their intrinsic knowledge about other agents behaviors and use that to forecast what might happen in the future. Inspired by humans, we provide our AVs the capability of anticipating future states and leveraging prediction in a cooperative reinforcement learning (RL) decision-making framework, to improve safety and robustness. In this paper, we propose an integration of two essential and earlier-presented components of AVs: social navigation and prediction. We formulate the AV decision-making process as a RL problem and seek to obtain optimal policies that produce socially beneficial results utilizing a prediction-aware planning and social-aware optimization RL framework. We also propose a Hybrid Predictive Network (HPN) that anticipates future observations. The HPN is used in a multi-step prediction chain to compute a window of predicted future observations to be used by the value function network (VFN). Finally, a safe VFN is trained to optimize a social utility using a sequence of previous and predicted observations, and a safety prioritizer is used to leverage the interpretable kinematic predictions to mask the unsafe actions, constraining the RL policy. We compare our prediction-aware AV to state-of-the-art solutions and demonstrate performance improvements in terms of efficiency and safety in multiple simulated scenarios.

Smart sensors, devices and systems deployed in smart cities have brought improved physical protections to their citizens. Enhanced crime prevention, and fire and life safety protection are achieved through these technologies that perform motion detection, threat and actors profiling, and real-time alerts. However, an important requirement in these increasingly prevalent deployments is the preservation of privacy and enforcement of protection of personal identifiable information. Thus, strong encryption and anonymization techniques should be applied to the collected data. In this IEEE Big Data Cup 2022 challenge, different masking, encoding and homomorphic encryption techniques were applied to the images to protect the privacy of their contents. Participants are required to develop detection solutions to perform privacy preserving matching of these images. In this paper, we describe our solution which is based on state-of-the-art deep convolutional neural networks and various data augmentation techniques. Our solution achieved 1st place at the IEEE Big Data Cup 2022: Privacy Preserving Matching of Encrypted Images Challenge.

Latent variables often mask cause-effect relationships in observational data which provokes spurious links that may be misinterpreted as causal. This problem sparks great interest in the fields such as climate science and economics. We propose to estimate confounded causal links of time series using Sequential Causal Effect Variational Autoencoder (SCEVAE) while applying Knockoff interventions. Knockoff variables have the same distribution as the originals and preserve the correlation to other variables. This allows for counterfactuals that are more faithful to the observational distribution. We show the advantage of Knockoff interventions by applying SCEVAE to synthetic datasets with both linear and nonlinear causal links. Moreover, we apply SCEVAE with Knockoffs to real aerosol-cloud-climate observational time series data. We compare our results on synthetic data to those of a time series deconfounding method both with and without estimated confounders. We show that our method outperforms this benchmark by comparing both methods to the ground truth. For the real data analysis, we rely on expert knowledge of causal links and demonstrate how using suitable proxy variables improves the causal link estimation in the presence of hidden confounders.

Network modeling has proven to be an efficient tool for many interdisciplinary areas, including social, biological, transport, and many other real world complex systems. In addition, cellular automata (CA) are a formalism that has been studied in the last decades as a model for exploring patterns in the dynamic spatio-temporal behavior of these systems based on local rules. Some studies explore the use of cellular automata to analyze the dynamic behavior of networks, denominating them as network automata (NA). Recently, NA proved to be efficient for network classification, since it uses a time-evolution pattern (TEP) for the feature extraction. However, the TEPs explored by previous studies are composed of binary values, which does not represent detailed information on the network analyzed. Therefore, in this paper, we propose alternate sources of information to use as descriptor for the classification task, which we denominate as density time-evolution pattern (D-TEP) and state density time-evolution pattern (SD-TEP). We explore the density of alive neighbors of each node, which is a continuous value, and compute feature vectors based on histograms of the TEPs. Our results show a significant improvement compared to previous studies at five synthetic network databases and also seven real world databases. Our proposed method demonstrates not only a good approach for pattern recognition in networks, but also shows great potential for other kinds of data, such as images.