Latent variables often mask cause-effect relationships in observational data which provokes spurious links that may be misinterpreted as causal. This problem sparks great interest in the fields such as climate science and economics. We propose to estimate confounded causal links of time series using Sequential Causal Effect Variational Autoencoder (SCEVAE) while applying Knockoff interventions. Knockoff variables have the same distribution as the originals and preserve the correlation to other variables. This allows for counterfactuals that are more faithful to the observational distribution. We show the advantage of Knockoff interventions by applying SCEVAE to synthetic datasets with both linear and nonlinear causal links. Moreover, we apply SCEVAE with Knockoffs to real aerosol-cloud-climate observational time series data. We compare our results on synthetic data to those of a time series deconfounding method both with and without estimated confounders. We show that our method outperforms this benchmark by comparing both methods to the ground truth. For the real data analysis, we rely on expert knowledge of causal links and demonstrate how using suitable proxy variables improves the causal link estimation in the presence of hidden confounders.

Network modeling has proven to be an efficient tool for many interdisciplinary areas, including social, biological, transport, and many other real world complex systems. In addition, cellular automata (CA) are a formalism that has been studied in the last decades as a model for exploring patterns in the dynamic spatio-temporal behavior of these systems based on local rules. Some studies explore the use of cellular automata to analyze the dynamic behavior of networks, denominating them as network automata (NA). Recently, NA proved to be efficient for network classification, since it uses a time-evolution pattern (TEP) for the feature extraction. However, the TEPs explored by previous studies are composed of binary values, which does not represent detailed information on the network analyzed. Therefore, in this paper, we propose alternate sources of information to use as descriptor for the classification task, which we denominate as density time-evolution pattern (D-TEP) and state density time-evolution pattern (SD-TEP). We explore the density of alive neighbors of each node, which is a continuous value, and compute feature vectors based on histograms of the TEPs. Our results show a significant improvement compared to previous studies at five synthetic network databases and also seven real world databases. Our proposed method demonstrates not only a good approach for pattern recognition in networks, but also shows great potential for other kinds of data, such as images.

Visual Analytics (VA) tools and techniques have been instrumental in supporting users to build better classification models, interpret models' overall logic, and audit results. In a different direction, VA has recently been applied to transform classification models into descriptive mechanisms instead of predictive. The idea is to use such models as surrogates for data patterns, visualizing the model to understand the phenomenon represented by the data. Although very useful and inspiring, the few proposed approaches have opted to use low complex classification models to promote straightforward interpretation, presenting limitations to capture intricate data patterns. In this paper, we present VAX (multiVariate dAta eXplanation), a new VA method to support the identification and visual interpretation of patterns in multivariate datasets. Unlike the existing similar approaches, VAX uses the concept of Jumping Emerging Patterns to identify and aggregate several diversified patterns, producing explanations through logic combinations of data variables. The potential of VAX to interpret complex multivariate datasets is demonstrated through use cases employing two real-world datasets covering different scenarios.

Extensive efforts have been made to understand and improve the fairness of machine learning models based on observational metrics, especially in high-stakes domains such as medical insurance, education, and hiring decisions. However, there is a lack of certified fairness considering the end-to-end performance of an ML model. In this paper, we first formulate the certified fairness of an ML model trained on a given data distribution as an optimization problem based on the model performance loss bound on a fairness constrained distribution, which is within bounded distributional distance with the training distribution. We then propose a general fairness certification framework and instantiate it for both sensitive shifting and general shifting scenarios. In particular, we propose to solve the optimization problem by decomposing the original data distribution into analytical subpopulations and proving the convexity of the subproblems to solve them. We evaluate our certified fairness on six real-world datasets and show that our certification is tight in the sensitive shifting scenario and provides non-trivial certification under general shifting. Our framework is flexible to integrate additional non-skewness constraints and we show that it provides even tighter certification under different real-world scenarios. We also compare our certified fairness bound with adapted existing distributional robustness bounds on Gaussian data and demonstrate that our method is significantly tighter.

Generative models have recently started to outperform extractive models in Open Domain Question Answering, largely by leveraging their decoder to attend over multiple encoded passages and combining their information. However, generative models tend to be larger than extractive models due to the need for a decoder, run slower during inference due to auto-regressive decoder beam search, and their generated output often suffers from hallucinations. We propose to extend transformer encoders with the ability to fuse information from multiple passages, using global representation to provide cross-sample attention over all tokens across samples. Furthermore, we propose an alternative answer span probability calculation to better aggregate answer scores in the global space of all samples. Using our proposed method, we outperform the current state-of-the-art method by $2.5$ Exact Match score on the Natural Question dataset while using only $25\%$ of parameters and $35\%$ of the latency during inference, and $4.4$ Exact Match on WebQuestions dataset. When coupled with synthetic data augmentation, we outperform larger models on the TriviaQA dataset as well. The latency and parameter savings of our method make it particularly attractive for open-domain question answering, as these models are often compute-intensive.

Prompt-based learning, with its capability to tackle zero-shot and few-shot NLP tasks, has gained much attention in community. The main idea is to bridge the gap between NLP downstream tasks and language modeling (LM), by mapping these tasks into natural language prompts, which are then filled by pre-trained language models (PLMs). However, for prompt learning, there are still two salient gaps between NLP tasks and pretraining. First, prompt information is not necessarily sufficiently present during LM pretraining. Second, task-specific data are not necessarily well represented during pretraining. We address these two issues by proposing AdaPrompt, adaptively retrieving external data for continual pretraining of PLMs by making use of both task and prompt characteristics. In addition, we make use of knowledge in Natural Language Inference models for deriving adaptive verbalizers. Experimental results on five NLP benchmarks show that AdaPrompt can improve over standard PLMs in few-shot settings. In addition, in zero-shot settings, our method outperforms standard prompt-based methods by up to 26.35\% relative error reduction.

In urban cities, visual information on and along roadways is likely to distract drivers and lead to missing traffic signs and other accident-prone (AP) features. To avoid accidents due to missing these visual cues, this paper proposes a visual notification of AP-features to drivers based on real-time images obtained via dashcam. For this purpose, Google Street View images around accident hotspots (areas of dense accident occurrence) identified by a real-accident dataset are used to train a novel attention module to classify a given urban scene into an accident hotspot or a non-hotspot (area of sparse accident occurrence). The proposed module leverages channel, point, and spatial-wise attention learning on top of different CNN backbones. This leads to better classification results and more certain AP-features with better contextual knowledge when compared with CNN backbones alone. Our proposed module achieves up to 92% classification accuracy. The capability of detecting AP-features by the proposed model were analyzed by a comparative study of three different class activation map (CAM) methods, which were used to inspect specific AP-features causing the classification decision. Outputs of CAM methods were processed by an image processing pipeline to extract only the AP-features that are explainable to drivers and notified using a visual notification system. Range of experiments was performed to prove the efficacy and AP-features of the system. Ablation of the AP-features taking 9.61%, on average, of the total area in each image increased the chance of a given area to be classified as a non-hotspot by up to 21.8%.

We introduce GENIUS: a conditional text generation model using sketches as input, which can fill in the missing contexts for a given sketch (key information consisting of textual spans, phrases, or words, concatenated by mask tokens). GENIUS is pre-trained on a large-scale textual corpus with a novel reconstruction from sketch objective using an extreme and selective masking strategy, enabling it to generate diverse and high-quality texts given sketches. Comparison with other competitive conditional language models (CLMs) reveals the superiority of GENIUS's text generation quality. We further show that GENIUS can be used as a strong and ready-to-use data augmentation tool for various natural language processing (NLP) tasks. Most existing textual data augmentation methods are either too conservative, by making small changes to the original text, or too aggressive, by creating entirely new samples. With GENIUS, we propose GeniusAug, which first extracts the target-aware sketches from the original training set and then generates new samples based on the sketches. Empirical experiments on 6 text classification datasets show that GeniusAug significantly improves the models' performance in both in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) settings. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of GeniusAug on named entity recognition (NER) and machine reading comprehension (MRC) tasks. (Code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/microsoft/SCGLab and https://github.com/beyondguo/genius)

Objective: Reveal and quantify qualities of reported experiences of chronic pain on social media, from multiple pathological backgrounds, by means of the novel Reddit Reports of Chronic Pain (RRCP) dataset, using Natural Language Processing techniques. Materials and Methods: Define and validate the RRCP dataset for a set of subreddits related to chronic pain. Identify the main concerns discussed in each subreddit. Model each subreddit according to their main concerns. Compare subreddit models. Results: The RRCP dataset comprises 86,537 Reddit submissions from 12 subreddits related to chronic pain (each related to one pathological background). Each RRCP subreddit has various main concerns. Some of these concerns are shared between multiple subreddits (e.g., the subreddit Sciatica semantically entails the subreddit backpain in their various concerns, but not the other way around), whilst some concerns are exclusive to specific subreddits (e.g., Interstitialcystitis and CrohnsDisease). Discussion: These results suggest that the reported experience of chronic pain, from multiple pathologies (i.e., subreddits), has concerns relevant to all, and concerns exclusive to certain pathologies. Our analysis details each of these concerns and their similarity relations. Conclusion: Although limited by intrinsic qualities of the Reddit platform, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first research work attempting to model the linguistic expression of various chronic pain-inducing pathologies and comparing these models to identify and quantify the similarities and differences between the corresponding emergent chronic pain experiences.

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--While the majority of organizations that use artificial intelligence (AI) are still experimenting with the technology, only 12% are using it at an AI maturity level that achieves a strong competitive advantage, according to new global research from Accenture (NYSE: ACN). "The Art of AI Maturity: Advancing from Practice to Performance" uncovers strategies for AI success through a holistic framework, which includes a new index to express company AI maturity on a 0-100 scale. According to the research, AI maturity is the degree to which organizations outperform their peers in a combination of AI-related foundational and differentiating capabilities. These capabilities include the technology -- data, AI, cloud -- as well as organizational strategy, Responsible AI, C-suite sponsorship, talent and culture. The research puts the median AI maturity of organizations at a moderate score of 36, revealing most companies have significant opportunities to generate greater value with AI.