Large language models (LLMs) transfer well to new tasks out-of-the-box simply given a natural language prompt that demonstrates how to perform the task and no additional training. Prompting is a brittle process wherein small modifications to the prompt can cause large variations in the model predictions, and therefore significant effort is dedicated towards designing a painstakingly "perfect prompt" for a task. To mitigate the high degree of effort involved in prompt-design, we instead ask whether producing multiple effective, yet imperfect, prompts and aggregating them can lead to a high quality prompting strategy. Our observations motivate our proposed prompting method, ASK ME ANYTHING (AMA). We first develop an understanding of the effective prompt formats, finding that question-answering (QA) prompts, which encourage open-ended generation ("Who went to the park?") tend to outperform those that restrict the model outputs ("John went to the park. Output True or False."). Our approach recursively uses the LLM itself to transform task inputs to the effective QA format. We apply the collected prompts to obtain several noisy votes for the input's true label. We find that the prompts can have very different accuracies and complex dependencies and thus propose to use weak supervision, a procedure for combining the noisy predictions, to produce the final predictions for the inputs. We evaluate AMA across open-source model families (e.g., EleutherAI, BLOOM, OPT, and T0) and model sizes (125M-175B parameters), demonstrating an average performance lift of 10.2% over the few-shot baseline. This simple strategy enables the open-source GPT-J-6B model to match and exceed the performance of few-shot GPT3-175B on 15 of 20 popular benchmarks. Averaged across these tasks, the GPT-J-6B model outperforms few-shot GPT3-175B. We release our code here: https://github.com/HazyResearch/ama_prompting

Existing work on sign language translation - that is, translation from sign language videos into sentences in a written language - has focused mainly on (1) data collected in a controlled environment or (2) data in a specific domain, which limits the applicability to real-world settings. In this paper, we introduce OpenASL, a large-scale American Sign Language (ASL) - English dataset collected from online video sites (e.g., YouTube). OpenASL contains 288 hours of ASL videos in multiple domains from over 200 signers and is the largest publicly available ASL translation dataset to date. To tackle the challenges of sign language translation in realistic settings and without glosses, we propose a set of techniques including sign search as a pretext task for pre-training and fusion of mouthing and handshape features. The proposed techniques produce consistent and large improvements in translation quality, over baseline models based on prior work. Our data and code are publicly available at https://github.com/chevalierNoir/OpenASL

In contrast to the advances in characterizing the sample complexity for solving Markov decision processes (MDPs), the optimal statistical complexity for solving constrained MDPs (CMDPs) remains unknown. We resolve this question by providing minimax upper and lower bounds on the sample complexity for learning near-optimal policies in a discounted CMDP with access to a generative model (simulator). In particular, we design a model-based algorithm that addresses two settings: (i) relaxed feasibility, where small constraint violations are allowed, and (ii) strict feasibility, where the output policy is required to satisfy the constraint. For (i), we prove that our algorithm returns an $\epsilon$-optimal policy with probability $1 - \delta$, by making $\tilde{O}\left(\frac{S A \log(1/\delta)}{(1 - \gamma)^3 \epsilon^2}\right)$ queries to the generative model, thus matching the sample-complexity for unconstrained MDPs. For (ii), we show that the algorithm's sample complexity is upper-bounded by $\tilde{O} \left(\frac{S A \, \log(1/\delta)}{(1 - \gamma)^5 \, \epsilon^2 \zeta^2} \right)$ where $\zeta$ is the problem-dependent Slater constant that characterizes the size of the feasible region. Finally, we prove a matching lower-bound for the strict feasibility setting, thus obtaining the first near minimax optimal bounds for discounted CMDPs. Our results show that learning CMDPs is as easy as MDPs when small constraint violations are allowed, but inherently more difficult when we demand zero constraint violation.

Ground assets deployed in a cluttered environment with randomized obstacles (e.g., a forest) may experience line of sight (LoS) obstruction due to those obstacles. Air assets can be deployed in the vicinity to aid the communication by establishing two-hop paths between the ground assets. Obstacles that are taller than a position-dependent critical height may still obstruct the LoS between a ground asset and an air asset. In this paper, we provide an analytical framework for computing the probability of obtaining a LoS path in a Poisson forest. Given the locations and heights of a ground asset and an air asset, we establish the critical height, which is a function of distance. To account for this dependence on distance, the blocking is modeled as an inhomogenous Poisson point process, and the LoS probability is its void probability. Examples and closed-form expressions are provided for two obstruction height distributions: uniform and truncated Gaussian. The examples are validated through simulation. Additionally, the end-to-end throughput is determined and shown to be a metric that balances communication distance with the impact of LoS blockage. Throughput is used to determine the range at which it is better to relay communications through the air asset, and, when the air asset is deployed, its optimal height.

By and large, existing computational models of visual attention tacitly assume perfect vision and full access to the stimulus and thereby deviate from foveated biological vision. Moreover, modeling top-down attention is generally reduced to the integration of semantic features without incorporating the signal of a high-level visual tasks that have been shown to partially guide human attention. We propose the Neural Visual Attention (NeVA) algorithm to generate visual scanpaths in a top-down manner. With our method, we explore the ability of neural networks on which we impose a biologically-inspired foveated vision constraint to generate human-like scanpaths without directly training for this objective. The loss of a neural network performing a downstream visual task (i.e., classification or reconstruction) flexibly provides top-down guidance to the scanpath. Extensive experiments show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art unsupervised human attention models in terms of similarity to human scanpaths. Additionally, the flexibility of the framework allows to quantitatively investigate the role of different tasks in the generated visual behaviors. Finally, we demonstrate the superiority of the approach in a novel experiment that investigates the utility of scanpaths in real-world applications, where imperfect viewing conditions are given.

Brazil is the most likely winner of the 2022 football World Cup according to a prediction model from the Alan Turing Institute in London. The publicly accessible model gives Brazil a 1-in-4 chance, with England's chances put at less than 1 in 10. Many people, from bookies to bankers, have run models trying to predict the winner and losers of the men's football 2022 World Cup in Qatar, but most of these models are run behind closed doors. Nick Barlow at the Alan Turing Institute and his colleagues have developed a model that people can run on their laptops at home, with 1000 tournament run-throughs taking 15 minutes on an average laptop. "It's quite important to us for most of the things we do that we make them open source," says Barlow. "We encourage people to get involved, to use our code and to contribute to it."

Just three days before England kick off their FIFA World Cup campaign against Iran, scientists have a rather pessimistic forecast. The experts, based at London's Alan Turing Institute, say Gareth Southgate's men have only a seven per cent chance of winning the World Cup for the first time since 1966. However, out of the 32 participating teams, England is the fifth mostly likely team to bring home the trophy, just behind the likes of France, Belgium and Brazil. Meanwhile, Wales, which is playing in its first World Cup since 1958, has only a 0.5 per cent chance of winning the tournament – and only a 46 per cent chance of making it out of the group stage. Brazil is most likely to win the World Cup this year, according to the team's research.

This work aims to produce landslide density estimates using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite imageries to prioritise emergency resources for rapid response. We use the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Landslide Inventory data annotated by experts after Hurricane Mar\'ia in Puerto Rico on Sept 20, 2017, and their subsequent susceptibility study which uses extensive additional information such as precipitation, soil moisture, geological terrain features, closeness to waterways and roads, etc. Since such data might not be available during other events or regions, we aimed to produce a landslide density map using only elevation and SAR data to be useful to decision-makers in rapid response scenarios. The USGS Landslide Inventory contains the coordinates of 71,431 landslide heads (not their full extent) and was obtained by manual inspection of aerial and satellite imagery. It is estimated that around 45\% of the landslides are smaller than a Sentinel-1 typical pixel which is 10m $\times$ 10m, although many are long and thin, probably leaving traces across several pixels. Our method obtains 0.814 AUC in predicting the correct density estimation class at the chip level (128$\times$128 pixels, at Sentinel-1 resolution) using only elevation data and up to three SAR acquisitions pre- and post-hurricane, thus enabling rapid assessment after a disaster. The USGS Susceptibility Study reports a 0.87 AUC, but it is measured at the landslide level and uses additional information sources (such as proximity to fluvial channels, roads, precipitation, etc.) which might not regularly be available in an rapid response emergency scenario.

Autonomous vehicle (AV) navigation in the presence of Human-driven vehicles (HVs) is challenging, as HVs continuously update their policies in response to AVs. In order to navigate safely in the presence of complex AV-HV social interactions, the AVs must learn to predict these changes. Humans are capable of navigating such challenging social interaction settings because of their intrinsic knowledge about other agents behaviors and use that to forecast what might happen in the future. Inspired by humans, we provide our AVs the capability of anticipating future states and leveraging prediction in a cooperative reinforcement learning (RL) decision-making framework, to improve safety and robustness. In this paper, we propose an integration of two essential and earlier-presented components of AVs: social navigation and prediction. We formulate the AV decision-making process as a RL problem and seek to obtain optimal policies that produce socially beneficial results utilizing a prediction-aware planning and social-aware optimization RL framework. We also propose a Hybrid Predictive Network (HPN) that anticipates future observations. The HPN is used in a multi-step prediction chain to compute a window of predicted future observations to be used by the value function network (VFN). Finally, a safe VFN is trained to optimize a social utility using a sequence of previous and predicted observations, and a safety prioritizer is used to leverage the interpretable kinematic predictions to mask the unsafe actions, constraining the RL policy. We compare our prediction-aware AV to state-of-the-art solutions and demonstrate performance improvements in terms of efficiency and safety in multiple simulated scenarios.

Smart sensors, devices and systems deployed in smart cities have brought improved physical protections to their citizens. Enhanced crime prevention, and fire and life safety protection are achieved through these technologies that perform motion detection, threat and actors profiling, and real-time alerts. However, an important requirement in these increasingly prevalent deployments is the preservation of privacy and enforcement of protection of personal identifiable information. Thus, strong encryption and anonymization techniques should be applied to the collected data. In this IEEE Big Data Cup 2022 challenge, different masking, encoding and homomorphic encryption techniques were applied to the images to protect the privacy of their contents. Participants are required to develop detection solutions to perform privacy preserving matching of these images. In this paper, we describe our solution which is based on state-of-the-art deep convolutional neural networks and various data augmentation techniques. Our solution achieved 1st place at the IEEE Big Data Cup 2022: Privacy Preserving Matching of Encrypted Images Challenge.