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Beyond Hawkes: Neural Multi-event Forecasting on Spatio-temporal Point Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predicting discrete events in time and space has many scientific applications, such as predicting hazardous earthquakes and outbreaks of infectious diseases. History-dependent spatio-temporal Hawkes processes are often used to mathematically model these point events. However, previous approaches have faced numerous challenges, particularly when attempting to forecast one or multiple future events. In this work, we propose a new neural architecture for simultaneous multi-event forecasting of spatio-temporal point processes, utilizing transformers, augmented with normalizing flows and probabilistic layers. Our network makes batched predictions of complex history-dependent spatio-temporal distributions of future discrete events, achieving state-of-the-art performance on a variety of benchmark datasets including the South California Earthquakes, Citibike, Covid-19, and Hawkes synthetic pinwheel datasets. More generally, we illustrate how our network can be applied to any dataset of discrete events with associated markers, even when no underlying physics is known.


Semantic Parsing for Conversational Question Answering over Knowledge Graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we are interested in developing semantic parsers which understand natural language questions embedded in a conversation with a user and ground them to formal queries over definitions in a general purpose knowledge graph (KG) with very large vocabularies (covering thousands of concept names and relations, and millions of entities). To this end, we develop a dataset where user questions are annotated with Sparql parses and system answers correspond to execution results thereof. We present two different semantic parsing approaches and highlight the challenges of the task: dealing with large vocabularies, modelling conversation context, predicting queries with multiple entities, and generalising to new questions at test time. We hope our dataset will serve as useful testbed for the development of conversational semantic parsers. Our dataset and models are released at https://github.com/EdinburghNLP/SPICE.


Finite Materialisability of Datalog Programs with Metric Temporal Operators

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

DatalogMTL is an extension of Datalog with metric temporal operators that has recently found applications in stream reasoning and temporal ontology-based data access. In contrast to plain Datalog, where materialisation (a.k.a. forward chaining) naturally terminates in finitely many steps, reaching a fixpoint in DatalogMTL may require infinitely many rounds of rule applications. As a result, existing reasoning systems resort to other approaches, such as constructing large Büchi automata, whose implementations turn out to be highly inefficient in practice. In this paper, we propose and study finitely materialisable DatalogMTL programs, for which forward chaining reasoning is guaranteed to terminate. We consider a data-dependent notion of finite materialisability of a program, where termination is guaranteed for a given dataset, as well as a data-independent notion, where termination is guaranteed regardless of the dataset. We show that, for bounded programs (a natural DatalogMTL fragment for which reasoning is as hard as in the full language), checking data-dependent finite materialisability is ExpSpace-complete in combined complexity and PSpace-complete in data complexity; furthermore, we propose a practical materialisation-based decision procedure that works in doubly exponential time. We show that checking data-independent finite materialisability for bounded progams is computationally easier, namely ExpTime-complete; moreover, we propose sufficient conditions for data-indenpendent finite materialisability that can be efficiently checked. We provide also the complexity landscape of fact entailment for different classes of finitely materialisable programs; surprisingly, we could identify a large class of finitely materialisable programs, called MTL-acyclic programs, for which fact entailment has exactly the same data and combined complexity as in plain Datalog, which makes this fragment especially well suited for big-scale applications.


Neuromorphic High-Frequency 3D Dancing Pose Estimation in Dynamic Environment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As a beloved sport worldwide, dancing is getting integrated into traditional and virtual reality-based gaming platforms nowadays. It opens up new opportunities in the technology-mediated dancing space. These platforms primarily rely on passive and continuous human pose estimation as an input capture mechanism. Existing solutions are mainly based on RGB or RGB-Depth cameras for dance games. The former suffers in low-lighting conditions due to the motion blur and low sensitivity, while the latter is too power-hungry, has a low frame rate, and has limited working distance. With ultra-low latency, energy efficiency, and wide dynamic range characteristics, the event camera is a promising solution to overcome these shortcomings. We propose YeLan, an event camera-based 3-dimensional high-frequency human pose estimation(HPE) system that survives low-lighting conditions and dynamic backgrounds. We collected the world's first event camera dance dataset and developed a fully customizable motion-to-event physics-aware simulator. YeLan outperforms the baseline models in these challenging conditions and demonstrated robustness against different types of clothing, background motion, viewing angle, occlusion, and lighting fluctuations.


Down the Rabbit Hole: Detecting Online Extremism, Radicalisation, and Politicised Hate Speech

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Social media is a modern person's digital voice to project and engage with new ideas and mobilise communities $\unicode{x2013}$ a power shared with extremists. Given the societal risks of unvetted content-moderating algorithms for Extremism, Radicalisation, and Hate speech (ERH) detection, responsible software engineering must understand the who, what, when, where, and why such models are necessary to protect user safety and free expression. Hence, we propose and examine the unique research field of ERH context mining to unify disjoint studies. Specifically, we evaluate the start-to-finish design process from socio-technical definition-building and dataset collection strategies to technical algorithm design and performance. Our 2015-2021 51-study Systematic Literature Review (SLR) provides the first cross-examination of textual, network, and visual approaches to detecting extremist affiliation, hateful content, and radicalisation towards groups and movements. We identify consensus-driven ERH definitions and propose solutions to existing ideological and geographic biases, particularly due to the lack of research in Oceania/Australasia. Our hybridised investigation on Natural Language Processing, Community Detection, and visual-text models demonstrates the dominating performance of textual transformer-based algorithms. We conclude with vital recommendations for ERH context mining researchers and propose an uptake roadmap with guidelines for researchers, industries, and governments to enable a safer cyberspace.


Vertex-based reachability analysis for verifying ReLU deep neural networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Neural networks achieved high performance over different tasks, i.e. image identification, voice recognition and other applications. Despite their success, these models are still vulnerable regarding small perturbations, which can be used to craft the so-called adversarial examples. Different approaches have been proposed to circumvent their vulnerability, including formal verification systems, which employ a variety of techniques, including reachability, optimization and search procedures, to verify that the model satisfies some property. In this paper we propose three novel reachability algorithms for verifying deep neural networks with ReLU activations. The first and third algorithms compute an over-approximation for the reachable set, whereas the second one computes the exact reachable set. Differently from previously proposed approaches, our algorithms take as input a V-polytope. Our experiments on the ACAS Xu problem show that the Exact Polytope Network Mapping (EPNM) reachability algorithm proposed in this work surpass the state-of-the-art results from the literature, specially in relation to other reachability methods.


Prediction of COVID-19 by Its Variants using Multivariate Data-driven Deep Learning Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 or the COVID-19 pandemic has swept almost all parts of the world since the first case was found in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. With the increasing number of COVID-19 cases in the world, SARS-CoV-2 has mutated into various variants. Given the increasingly dangerous conditions of the pandemic, it is crucial to know when the pandemic will stop by predicting confirmed cases of COVID-19. Therefore, many studies have raised COVID-19 as a case study to overcome the ongoing pandemic using the Deep Learning method, namely LSTM, with reasonably accurate results and small error values. LSTM training is used to predict confirmed cases of COVID-19 based on variants that have been identified using ECDC's COVID-19 dataset containing confirmed cases of COVID-19 that have been identified from 30 countries in Europe. Tests were conducted using the LSTM and BiLSTM models with the addition of RNN as comparisons on hidden size and layer size. The obtained result showed that in testing hidden sizes 25, 50, 75 to 100, the RNN model provided better results, with the minimum MSE value of 0.01 and the RMSE value of 0.012 for B.1.427/B.1.429 variant with hidden size 100. In further testing of layer sizes 2, 3, 4, and 5, the result shows that the BiLSTM model provided better results, with minimum MSE value of 0.01 and the RMSE of 0.01 for the B.1.427/B.1.429 variant with hidden size 100 and layer size 2.


Towards Personalized Review Summarization by Modeling Historical Reviews from Customer and Product Separately

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Review summarization is a non-trivial task that aims to summarize the main idea of the product review in the E-commerce website. Different from the document summary which only needs to focus on the main facts described in the document, review summarization should not only summarize the main aspects mentioned in the review but also reflect the personal style of the review author. Although existing review summarization methods have incorporated the historical reviews of both customer and product, they usually simply concatenate and indiscriminately model this two heterogeneous information into a long sequence. Moreover, the rating information can also provide a high-level abstraction of customer preference, it has not been used by the majority of methods. In this paper, we propose the Heterogeneous Historical Review aware Review Summarization Model (HHRRS) which separately models the two types of historical reviews with the rating information by a graph reasoning module with a contrastive loss. We employ a multi-task framework that conducts the review sentiment classification and summarization jointly. Extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets demonstrate the superiority of HHRRS on both tasks.


Dynamic Network Reconfiguration for Entropy Maximization using Deep Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A key problem in network theory is how to reconfigure a graph in order to optimize a quantifiable objective. Given the ubiquity of networked systems, such work has broad practical applications in a variety of situations, ranging from drug and material design to telecommunications. The large decision space of possible reconfigurations, however, makes this problem computationally intensive. In this paper, we cast the problem of network rewiring for optimizing a specified structural property as a Markov Decision Process (MDP), in which a decision-maker is given a budget of modifications that are performed sequentially. We then propose a general approach based on the Deep Q-Network (DQN) algorithm and graph neural networks (GNNs) that can efficiently learn strategies for rewiring networks. We then discuss a cybersecurity case study, i.e., an application to the computer network reconfiguration problem for intrusion protection. In a typical scenario, an attacker might have a (partial) map of the system they plan to penetrate; if the network is effectively "scrambled", they would not be able to navigate it since their prior knowledge would become obsolete. This can be viewed as an entropy maximization problem, in which the goal is to increase the surprise of the network. Indeed, entropy acts as a proxy measurement of the difficulty of navigating the network topology. We demonstrate the general ability of the proposed method to obtain better entropy gains than random rewiring on synthetic and real-world graphs while being computationally inexpensive, as well as being able to generalize to larger graphs than those seen during training. Simulations of attack scenarios confirm the effectiveness of the learned rewiring strategies.


Hierarchical clustering: visualization, feature importance and model selection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose methods for the analysis of hierarchical clustering that fully use the multi-resolution structure provided by a dendrogram. Specifically, we propose a loss for choosing between clustering methods, a feature importance score and a graphical tool for visualizing the segmentation of features in a dendrogram. Current approaches to these tasks lead to loss of information since they require the user to generate a single partition of the instances by cutting the dendrogram at a specified level. Our proposed methods, instead, use the full structure of the dendrogram. The key insight behind the proposed methods is to view a dendrogram as a phylogeny. This analogy permits the assignment of a feature value to each internal node of a tree through an evolutionary model. Real and simulated datasets provide evidence that our proposed framework has desirable outcomes and gives more insights than state-of-art approaches. We provide an R package that implements our methods.