South America
Correcting for Selection Bias and Missing Response in Regression using Privileged Information
Boeken, Philip, de Kroon, Noud, de Jong, Mathijs, Mooij, Joris M., Zoeter, Onno
When estimating a regression model, we might have data where some labels are missing, or our data might be biased by a selection mechanism. When the response or selection mechanism is ignorable (i.e., independent of the response variable given the features) one can use off-the-shelf regression methods; in the nonignorable case one typically has to adjust for bias. We observe that privileged information (i.e. information that is only available during training) might render a nonignorable selection mechanism ignorable, and we refer to this scenario as Privilegedly Missing at Random (PMAR). We propose a novel imputation-based regression method, named repeated regression, that is suitable for PMAR. We also consider an importance weighted regression method, and a doubly robust combination of the two. The proposed methods are easy to implement with most popular out-of-the-box regression algorithms. We empirically assess the performance of the proposed methods with extensive simulated experiments and on a synthetically augmented real-world dataset. We conclude that repeated regression can appropriately correct for bias, and can have considerable advantage over weighted regression, especially when extrapolating to regions of the feature space where response is never observed.
Semantic Information Recovery in Wireless Networks
Beck, Edgar, Bockelmann, Carsten, Dekorsy, Armin
Motivated by the recent success of Machine Learning (ML) tools in wireless communications, the idea of semantic communication by Weaver from 1949 has gained attention. It breaks with Shannon's classic design paradigm by aiming to transmit the meaning of a message, i.e., semantics, rather than its exact version and thus allows for savings in information rate. In this work, we extend the fundamental approach from Basu et al. for modeling semantics to the complete communications Markov chain. Thus, we model semantics by means of hidden random variables and define the semantic communication task as the data-reduced and reliable transmission of messages over a communication channel such that semantics is best preserved. We cast this task as an end-to-end Information Bottleneck problem, allowing for compression while preserving relevant information most. As a solution approach, we propose the ML-based semantic communication system SINFONY and use it for a distributed multipoint scenario: SINFONY communicates the meaning behind multiple messages that are observed at different senders to a single receiver for semantic recovery. We analyze SINFONY by processing images as message examples. Numerical results reveal a tremendous rate-normalized SNR shift up to 20 dB compared to classically designed communication systems.
Semantic-Based Neural Network Repair
Recently, neural networks have spread into numerous fields including many safety-critical systems. Neural networks are built (and trained) by programming in frameworks such as TensorFlow and PyTorch. Developers apply a rich set of pre-defined layers to manually program neural networks or to automatically generate them (e.g., through AutoML). Composing neural networks with different layers is error-prone due to the non-trivial constraints that must be satisfied in order to use those layers. In this work, we propose an approach to automatically repair erroneous neural networks. The challenge is in identifying a minimal modification to the network so that it becomes valid. Modifying a layer might have cascading effects on subsequent layers and thus our approach must search recursively to identify a "globally" minimal modification. Our approach is based on an executable semantics of deep learning layers and focuses on four kinds of errors which are common in practice. We evaluate our approach for two usage scenarios, i.e., repairing automatically generated neural networks and manually written ones suffering from common model bugs. The results show that we are able to repair 100% of a set of randomly generated neural networks (which are produced with an existing AI framework testing approach) effectively and efficiently (with an average repair time of 21.08s) and 93.75% of a collection of real neural network bugs (with an average time of 3min 40s).
Accurate Measures of Vaccination and Concerns of Vaccine Holdouts from Web Search Logs
Chang, Serina, Fourney, Adam, Horvitz, Eric
To design effective vaccine policies, policymakers need detailed data about who has been vaccinated, who is holding out, and why. However, existing data in the US are insufficient: reported vaccination rates are often delayed or missing, and surveys of vaccine hesitancy are limited by high-level questions and self-report biases. Here, we show how large-scale search engine logs and machine learning can be leveraged to fill these gaps and provide novel insights about vaccine intentions and behaviors. First, we develop a vaccine intent classifier that can accurately detect when a user is seeking the COVID-19 vaccine on search. Our classifier demonstrates strong agreement with CDC vaccination rates, with correlations above 0.86, and estimates vaccine intent rates to the level of ZIP codes in real time, allowing us to pinpoint more granular trends in vaccine seeking across regions, demographics, and time. To investigate vaccine hesitancy, we use our classifier to identify two groups, vaccine early adopters and vaccine holdouts. We find that holdouts, compared to early adopters matched on covariates, are 69% more likely to click on untrusted news sites. Furthermore, we organize 25,000 vaccine-related URLs into a hierarchical ontology of vaccine concerns, and we find that holdouts are far more concerned about vaccine requirements, vaccine development and approval, and vaccine myths, and even within holdouts, concerns vary significantly across demographic groups. Finally, we explore the temporal dynamics of vaccine concerns and vaccine seeking, and find that key indicators emerge when individuals convert from holding out to preparing to accept the vaccine.
Getting the Most from Eye-Tracking: User-Interaction Based Reading Region Estimation Dataset and Models
Kong, Ruoyan, Sun, Ruixuan, Zhang, Charles Chuankai, Chen, Chen, Patri, Sneha, Gajjela, Gayathri, Konstan, Joseph A.
A single digital newsletter usually contains many messages (regions). Users' reading time spent on, and read level (skip/skim/read-in-detail) of each message is important for platforms to understand their users' interests, personalize their contents, and make recommendations. Based on accurate but expensive-to-collect eyetracker-recorded data, we built models that predict per-region reading time based on easy-to-collect Javascript browser tracking data. With eye-tracking, we collected 200k ground-truth datapoints on participants reading news on browsers. Then we trained machine learning and deep learning models to predict message-level reading time based on user interactions like mouse position, scrolling, and clicking. We reached 27\% percentage error in reading time estimation with a two-tower neural network based on user interactions only, against the eye-tracking ground truth data, while the heuristic baselines have around 46\% percentage error. We also discovered the benefits of replacing per-session models with per-timestamp models, and adding user pattern features. We concluded with suggestions on developing message-level reading estimation techniques based on available data.
Towards Fair and Explainable AI using a Human-Centered AI Approach
The rise of machine learning (ML) is accompanied by several high-profile cases that have stressed the need for fairness, accountability, explainability and trust in ML systems. The existing literature has largely focused on fully automated ML approaches that try to optimize for some performance metric. However, human-centric measures like fairness, trust, explainability, etc. are subjective in nature, context-dependent, and might not correlate with conventional performance metrics. To deal with these challenges, we explore a human-centered AI approach that empowers people by providing more transparency and human control. In this dissertation, we present 5 research projects that aim to enhance explainability and fairness in classification systems and word embeddings. The first project explores the utility/downsides of introducing local model explanations as interfaces for machine teachers (crowd workers). Our study found that adding explanations supports trust calibration for the resulting ML model and enables rich forms of teaching feedback. The second project presents D-BIAS, a causality-based human-in-the-loop visual tool for identifying and mitigating social biases in tabular datasets. Apart from fairness, we found that our tool also enhances trust and accountability. The third project presents WordBias, a visual interactive tool that helps audit pre-trained static word embeddings for biases against groups, such as females, or subgroups, such as Black Muslim females. The fourth project presents DramatVis Personae, a visual analytics tool that helps identify social biases in creative writing. Finally, the last project presents an empirical study aimed at understanding the cumulative impact of multiple fairness-enhancing interventions at different stages of the ML pipeline on fairness, utility and different population groups. We conclude by discussing some of the future directions.
Multi-Platform Budget Management in Ad Markets with Non-IC Auctions
Susan, Fransisca, Golrezaei, Negin, Schrijvers, Okke
The online advertising industry has seen tremendous growth in recent years, with an estimated worth of 190 billion dollars in the United States alone in 2021 Statista (2021). Centralized platforms like Google and Meta play a significant role in this thriving industry, as advertisers, including small businesses and marketing practitioners, compete daily in thousands of auctions for valuable ad impressions. With multiple channels now available, advertisers are faced with the complex task of managing their budgets dynamically across different platforms, each with its own auction format that might or might not be incentive compatible. Advertisers aim to maximize their utility (such as exposure, impressions, CTRs, etc.) while staying within their budget limits. One of the challenges that they have is that each platform utilizes its own unique auction format that requires a tailored strategy. The problem becomes harder because advertisers have to balance their current and future bidding opportunities across platforms to ensure their budget lasts throughout the duration of their campaign, as running out of funds before the end of the campaign could result in significant losses. Moreover, they also might start with little/no prior information about how their competitors bid in each platform, adding another ambiguity to their problem. 1
Benchmarking Neural Network Training Algorithms
Dahl, George E., Schneider, Frank, Nado, Zachary, Agarwal, Naman, Sastry, Chandramouli Shama, Hennig, Philipp, Medapati, Sourabh, Eschenhagen, Runa, Kasimbeg, Priya, Suo, Daniel, Bae, Juhan, Gilmer, Justin, Peirson, Abel L., Khan, Bilal, Anil, Rohan, Rabbat, Mike, Krishnan, Shankar, Snider, Daniel, Amid, Ehsan, Chen, Kongtao, Maddison, Chris J., Vasudev, Rakshith, Badura, Michal, Garg, Ankush, Mattson, Peter
Training algorithms, broadly construed, are an essential part of every deep learning pipeline. Training algorithm improvements that speed up training across a wide variety of workloads (e.g., better update rules, tuning protocols, learning rate schedules, or data selection schemes) could save time, save computational resources, and lead to better, more accurate, models. Unfortunately, as a community, we are currently unable to reliably identify training algorithm improvements, or even determine the state-of-the-art training algorithm. In this work, using concrete experiments, we argue that real progress in speeding up training requires new benchmarks that resolve three basic challenges faced by empirical comparisons of training algorithms: (1) how to decide when training is complete and precisely measure training time, (2) how to handle the sensitivity of measurements to exact workload details, and (3) how to fairly compare algorithms that require hyperparameter tuning. In order to address these challenges, we introduce a new, competitive, time-to-result benchmark using multiple workloads running on fixed hardware, the AlgoPerf: Training Algorithms benchmark. Our benchmark includes a set of workload variants that make it possible to detect benchmark submissions that are more robust to workload changes than current widely-used methods. Finally, we evaluate baseline submissions constructed using various optimizers that represent current practice, as well as other optimizers that have recently received attention in the literature. These baseline results collectively demonstrate the feasibility of our benchmark, show that non-trivial gaps between methods exist, and set a provisional state-of-the-art for future benchmark submissions to try and surpass.
Augmenting Language Models with Long-Term Memory
Wang, Weizhi, Dong, Li, Cheng, Hao, Liu, Xiaodong, Yan, Xifeng, Gao, Jianfeng, Wei, Furu
Existing large language models (LLMs) can only afford fix-sized inputs due to the input length limit, preventing them from utilizing rich long-context information from past inputs. To address this, we propose a framework, Language Models Augmented with Long-Term Memory (LongMem), which enables LLMs to memorize long history. We design a novel decoupled network architecture with the original backbone LLM frozen as a memory encoder and an adaptive residual side-network as a memory retriever and reader. Such a decoupled memory design can easily cache and update long-term past contexts for memory retrieval without suffering from memory staleness. Enhanced with memory-augmented adaptation training, LongMem can thus memorize long past context and use long-term memory for language modeling. The proposed memory retrieval module can handle unlimited-length context in its memory bank to benefit various downstream tasks. Typically, LongMem can enlarge the long-form memory to 65k tokens and thus cache many-shot extra demonstration examples as long-form memory for in-context learning. Experiments show that our method outperforms strong long-context models on ChapterBreak, a challenging long-context modeling benchmark, and achieves remarkable improvements on memory-augmented in-context learning over LLMs. The results demonstrate that the proposed method is effective in helping language models to memorize and utilize long-form contents. Our code is open-sourced at https://aka.ms/LongMem.
Adversarial Constrained Bidding via Minimax Regret Optimization with Causality-Aware Reinforcement Learning
Wang, Haozhe, Du, Chao, Fang, Panyan, He, Li, Wang, Liang, Zheng, Bo
The proliferation of the Internet has led to the emergence of online advertising, driven by the mechanics of online auctions. In these repeated auctions, software agents participate on behalf of aggregated advertisers to optimize for their long-term utility. To fulfill the diverse demands, bidding strategies are employed to optimize advertising objectives subject to different spending constraints. Existing approaches on constrained bidding typically rely on i.i.d. train and test conditions, which contradicts the adversarial nature of online ad markets where different parties possess potentially conflicting objectives. In this regard, we explore the problem of constrained bidding in adversarial bidding environments, which assumes no knowledge about the adversarial factors. Instead of relying on the i.i.d. assumption, our insight is to align the train distribution of environments with the potential test distribution meanwhile minimizing policy regret. Based on this insight, we propose a practical Minimax Regret Optimization (MiRO) approach that interleaves between a teacher finding adversarial environments for tutoring and a learner meta-learning its policy over the given distribution of environments. In addition, we pioneer to incorporate expert demonstrations for learning bidding strategies. Through a causality-aware policy design, we improve upon MiRO by distilling knowledge from the experts. Extensive experiments on both industrial data and synthetic data show that our method, MiRO with Causality-aware reinforcement Learning (MiROCL), outperforms prior methods by over 30%.