In the context of natural disasters, human responses inevitably intertwine with natural factors. The COVID-19 pandemic, as a significant stress factor, has brought to light profound variations among different countries in terms of their adaptive dynamics in addressing the spread of infection outbreaks across different regions. This emphasizes the crucial role of cultural characteristics in natural disaster analysis. The theoretical understanding of large-scale epidemics primarily relies on mean-field kinetic models. However, conventional SIR-like models failed to fully explain the observed phenomena at the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak. These phenomena included the unexpected cessation of exponential growth, the reaching of plateaus, and the occurrence of multi-wave dynamics. In situations where an outbreak of a highly virulent and unfamiliar infection arises, it becomes crucial to respond swiftly at a non-medical level to mitigate the negative socio-economic impact. Here we present a theoretical examination of the first wave of the epidemic based on a simple SIRSS model (SIR with Social Stress). We conduct an analysis of the socio-cultural features of na\"ive population behaviors across various countries worldwide. The unique characteristics of each country/territory are encapsulated in only a few constants within our model, derived from the fitted COVID-19 statistics. These constants also reflect the societal response dynamics to the external stress factor, underscoring the importance of studying the mutual behavior of humanity and natural factors during global social disasters. Based on these distinctive characteristics of specific regions, local authorities can optimize their strategies to effectively combat epidemics until vaccines are developed.

Objective: Sepsis is a life-threatening condition. Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score is commonly used to assess organ dysfunction and predict ICU mortality, but it is taken as a static measurement and fails to capture dynamic changes. This study aims to investigate the relationship between dynamic changes in SOFA scores over the first 72 hours of ICU admission and patient outcomes. Design, setting, and participants: 3,253 patients in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database who met the sepsis-3 criteria and were admitted from the emergency department with at least 72 hours of ICU admission and full-active resuscitation status were analysed. Group-based trajectory modelling with dynamic time warping and k-means clustering identified distinct trajectory patterns in dynamic SOFA scores. They were subsequently compared using Python. Main outcome measures: Outcomes including hospital and ICU mortality, length of stay in hospital and ICU, and readmission during hospital stay, were collected. Discharge time from ICU to wards and cut-offs at 7-day and 14-day were taken. Results: Four clusters were identified: A (consistently low SOFA scores), B (rapid increase followed by a decline in SOFA scores), C (higher baseline scores with gradual improvement), and D (persistently elevated scores). Cluster D had the longest ICU and hospital stays, highest ICU and hospital mortality. Discharge rates from ICU were similar for Clusters A and B, while Cluster C had initially comparable rates but a slower transition to ward. Conclusion: Monitoring dynamic changes in SOFA score is valuable for assessing sepsis severity and treatment responsiveness.

Radiology report generation (RRG) aims to automatically generate free-text descriptions from clinical radiographs, e.g., chest X-Ray images. RRG plays an essential role in promoting clinical automation and presents significant help to provide practical assistance for inexperienced doctors and alleviate radiologists' workloads. Therefore, consider these meaningful potentials, research on RRG is experiencing explosive growth in the past half-decade, especially with the rapid development of deep learning approaches. Existing studies perform RRG from the perspective of enhancing different modalities, provide insights on optimizing the report generation process with elaborated features from both visual and textual information, and further facilitate RRG with the cross-modal interactions among them. In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of deep learning-based RRG from various perspectives. Specifically, we firstly cover pivotal RRG approaches based on the task-specific features of radiographs, reports, and the cross-modal relations between them, and then illustrate the benchmark datasets conventionally used for this task with evaluation metrics, subsequently analyze the performance of different approaches and finally offer our summary on the challenges and the trends in future directions. Overall, the goal of this paper is to serve as a tool for understanding existing literature and inspiring potential valuable research in the field of RRG.

Recent advancements in language models have showcased human-comparable performance in academic entrance exams. However, existing studies often overlook questions that require the integration of visual comprehension, thus compromising the full spectrum and complexity inherent in real-world scenarios. To address this gap, we present a comprehensive framework to evaluate language models on entrance exams, which incorporates both textual and visual elements. We evaluate the two most recent editions of Exame Nacional do Ensino M\'edio (ENEM), the main standardized entrance examination adopted by Brazilian universities. Our study not only reaffirms the capabilities of GPT-4 as the state of the art for handling complex multidisciplinary questions, but also pioneers in offering a realistic assessment of multimodal language models on Portuguese examinations. One of the highlights is that text captions transcribing visual content outperform the direct use of images, suggesting that the vision model has room for improvement. Yet, despite improvements afforded by images or captions, mathematical questions remain a challenge for these state-of-the-art models. The code and data used on experiments are available at https://github.com/piresramon/gpt-4-enem.

The automated analysis of medical time series, such as the electrocardiogram (ECG), electroencephalogram (EEG), pulse oximetry, etc, has the potential to serve as a valuable tool for diagnostic decisions, allowing for remote monitoring of patients and more efficient use of expensive and time-consuming medical procedures. Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been demonstrated to process such signals effectively. However, previous research has primarily focused on classifying medical time series rather than attempting to regress the continuous-valued physiological parameters central to diagnosis. One significant challenge in this regard is the imbalanced nature of the dataset, as a low prevalence of abnormal conditions can lead to heavily skewed data that results in inaccurate predictions and a lack of certainty in such predictions when deployed. To address these challenges, we propose HypUC, a framework for imbalanced probabilistic regression in medical time series, making several contributions. (i) We introduce a simple kernel density-based technique to tackle the imbalanced regression problem with medical time series. (ii) Moreover, we employ a probabilistic regression framework that allows uncertainty estimation for the predicted continuous values. (iii) We also present a new approach to calibrate the predicted uncertainty further. (iv) Finally, we demonstrate a technique to use calibrated uncertainty estimates to improve the predicted continuous value and show the efficacy of the calibrated uncertainty estimates to flag unreliable predictions. HypUC is evaluated on a large, diverse, real-world dataset of ECGs collected from millions of patients, outperforming several conventional baselines on various diagnostic tasks, suggesting a potential use-case for the reliable clinical deployment of deep learning models.

Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy plays an essential role across various scientific disciplines, providing valuable insights into molecular dynamics and interactions. Despite the promise of AI-enhanced NMR prediction models, challenges persist in the interpretation of spectra for tasks such as molecular retrieval, isomer recognition, and peak assignment. In response, this paper introduces Multi-Level Multimodal Alignment with Knowledge-Guided Instance-Wise Discrimination (K-M3AID) to establish meaningful correspondences between two heterogeneous modalities: molecular graphs (structures) and NMR spectra. In particular, K-M3AID employs a dual-coordinated contrastive learning architecture, and incorporates a graph-level alignment module, a node-level alignment module, and a communication channel. Notably, the framework introduces knowledge-guided instance-wise discrimination into contrastive learning within the node-level alignment module, significantly enhancing accuracy in cross-modal alignment. Additionally, K-M3AID showcases its capability of meta-learning by demonstrating that skills acquired during node-level alignment positively impact graph-level alignment. Empirical validation underscores K-M3AID's effectiveness in addressing multiple zero-shot tasks, offering a promising solution to bridge the gap between structural information and spectral data in complex NMR scenarios.

Traditional surveillance systems rely on human attention, limiting their effectiveness. This study employs convolutional neural networks and transfer learning to develop a real-time computer vision system for automatic handgun detection. Comprehensive analysis of online handgun detection methods is conducted, emphasizing reducing false positives and learning time. Transfer learning is demonstrated as an effective approach. Despite technical challenges, the proposed system achieves a precision rate of 84.74%, demonstrating promising performance comparable to related works, enabling faster learning and accurate automatic handgun detection for enhanced security. This research advances security measures by reducing human monitoring dependence, showcasing the potential of transfer learning-based approaches for efficient and reliable handgun detection.

This paper explores the potential of the transformer models for learning Granger causality in networks with complex nonlinear dynamics at every node, as in neurobiological and biophysical networks. Our study primarily focuses on a proof-of-concept investigation based on simulated neural dynamics, for which the ground-truth causality is known through the underlying connectivity matrix. For transformer models trained to forecast neuronal population dynamics, we show that the cross attention module effectively captures the causal relationship among neurons, with an accuracy equal or superior to that for the most popular Granger causality analysis method. While we acknowledge that real-world neurobiology data will bring further challenges, including dynamic connectivity and unobserved variability, this research offers an encouraging preliminary glimpse into the utility of the transformer model for causal representation learning in neuroscience.

Interest-free promotions are a prevalent strategy employed by credit card lenders to attract new customers, yet the research exploring their effects on both consumers and lenders remains relatively sparse. The process of selecting an optimal promotion strategy is intricate, involving the determination of an interest-free period duration and promotion-availability window, all within the context of competing offers, fluctuating market dynamics, and complex consumer behaviour. In this paper, we introduce an agent-based model that facilitates the exploration of various credit card promotions under diverse market scenarios. Our approach, distinct from previous agent-based models, concentrates on optimising promotion strategies and is calibrated using benchmarks from the UK credit card market from 2019 to 2020, with agent properties derived from historical distributions of the UK population from roughly the same period. We validate our model against stylised facts and time-series data, thereby demonstrating the value of this technique for investigating pricing strategies and understanding credit card customer behaviour. Our experiments reveal that, in the absence of competitor promotions, lender profit is maximised by an interest-free duration of approximately 12 months while market share is maximised by offering the longest duration possible. When competitors do not offer promotions, extended promotion availability windows yield maximum profit for lenders while also maximising market share. In the context of concurrent interest-free promotions, we identify that the optimal lender strategy entails offering a more competitive interest-free period and a rapid response to competing promotional offers. Notably, a delay of three months in responding to a rival promotion corresponds to a 2.4% relative decline in income.

Large language models are trained on vast amounts of internet data, prompting concerns and speculation that they have memorized public benchmarks. Going from speculation to proof of contamination is challenging, as the pretraining data used by proprietary models are often not publicly accessible. We show that it is possible to provide provable guarantees of test set contamination in language models without access to pretraining data or model weights. Our approach leverages the fact that when there is no data contamination, all orderings of an exchangeable benchmark should be equally likely. In contrast, the tendency for language models to memorize example order means that a contaminated language model will find certain canonical orderings to be much more likely than others. Our test flags potential contamination whenever the likelihood of a canonically ordered benchmark dataset is significantly higher than the likelihood after shuffling the examples. We demonstrate that our procedure is sensitive enough to reliably prove test set contamination in challenging situations, including models as small as 1.4 billion parameters, on small test sets of only 1000 examples, and datasets that appear only a few times in the pretraining corpus. Using our test, we audit four popular publicly accessible language models for test set contamination and find little evidence for pervasive contamination. Large language models (LLMs) have driven remarkable improvements on a number of natural language processing benchmarks (Wang et al., 2019) and professional exams (OpenAI, 2023).