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Using machine learning to understand causal relationships between urban form and travel CO2 emissions across continents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Climate change mitigation in urban mobility requires policies reconfiguring urban form to increase accessibility and facilitate low-carbon modes of transport. However, current policy research has insufficiently assessed urban form effects on car travel at three levels: (1) Causality -- Can causality be established beyond theoretical and correlation-based analyses? (2) Generalizability -- Do relationships hold across different cities and world regions? (3) Context specificity -- How do relationships vary across neighborhoods of a city? Here, we address all three gaps via causal graph discovery and explainable machine learning to detect urban form effects on intra-city car travel, based on mobility data of six cities across three continents. We find significant causal effects of urban form on trip emissions and inter-feature effects, which had been neglected in previous work. Our results demonstrate that destination accessibility matters most overall, while low density and low connectivity also sharply increase CO$_2$ emissions. These general trends are similar across cities but we find idiosyncratic effects that can lead to substantially different recommendations. In more monocentric cities, we identify spatial corridors -- about 10--50 km from the city center -- where subcenter-oriented development is more relevant than increased access to the main center. Our work demonstrates a novel application of machine learning that enables new research addressing the needs of causality, generalizability, and contextual specificity for scaling evidence-based urban climate solutions.


Probabilistic learning of the Purkinje network from the electrocardiogram

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The identification of the Purkinje conduction system in the heart is a challenging task, yet essential for a correct definition of cardiac digital twins for precision cardiology. Here, we propose a probabilistic approach for identifying the Purkinje network from non-invasive clinical data such as the standard electrocardiogram (ECG). We use cardiac imaging to build an anatomically accurate model of the ventricles; we algorithmically generate a rule-based Purkinje network tailored to the anatomy; we simulate physiological electrocardiograms with a fast model; we identify the geometrical and electrical parameters of the Purkinje-ECG model with Bayesian optimization and approximate Bayesian computation. The proposed approach is inherently probabilistic and generates a population of plausible Purkinje networks, all fitting the ECG within a given tolerance. In this way, we can estimate the uncertainty of the parameters, thus providing reliable predictions. We test our methodology in physiological and pathological scenarios, showing that we are able to accurately recover the ECG with our model. We propagate the uncertainty in the Purkinje network parameters in a simulation of conduction system pacing therapy. Our methodology is a step forward in creation of digital twins from non-invasive data in precision medicine. An open source implementation can be found at http://github.com/fsahli/purkinje-learning


Reliable Prediction Intervals with Regression Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper proposes an extension to conventional regression Neural Networks (NNs) for replacing the point predictions they produce with prediction intervals that satisfy a required level of confidence. Our approach follows a novel machine learning framework, called Conformal Prediction (CP), for assigning reliable confidence measures to predictions without assuming anything more than that the data are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). We evaluate the proposed method on four benchmark datasets and on the problem of predicting Total Electron Content (TEC), which is an important parameter in trans-ionospheric links; for the latter we use a dataset of more than 60000 TEC measurements collected over a period of 11 years. Our experimental results show that the prediction intervals produced by our method are both well-calibrated and tight enough to be useful in practice.


Machine-Learned Exclusion Limits without Binning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Machine-Learned Likelihoods (MLL) combines machine-learning classification techniques with likelihood-based inference tests to estimate the experimental sensitivity of high-dimensional data sets. We extend the MLL method by including Kernel Density Estimators (KDE) to avoid binning the classifier output to extract the resulting one-dimensional signal and background probability density functions. We first test our method on toy models generated with multivariate Gaussian distributions, where the true probability distribution functions are known. Later, we apply the method to two cases of interest at the LHC: a search for exotic Higgs bosons, and a $Z'$ boson decaying into lepton pairs. In contrast to physical-based quantities, the typical fluctuations of the ML outputs give non-smooth probability distributions for pure-signal and pure-background samples. The non-smoothness is propagated into the density estimation due to the good performance and flexibility of the KDE method. We study its impact on the final significance computation, and we compare the results using the average of several independent ML output realizations, which allows us to obtain smoother distributions. We conclude that the significance estimation turns out to be not sensible to this issue.


Pope Francis warns AI exploited by 'technocratic systems' could 'pose a risk to our survival'

FOX News

Fox News Flash top headlines are here. Check out what's clicking on Foxnews.com. Pope Francis warned world leaders on Thursday that uninhibited and reckless development of artificial intelligence could pose a profound risk to humanity. The pope made the statements in an address to the world in honor of the upcoming 57th annual World Day of Peace on Jan. 1. "We rightly rejoice and give thanks for the impressive achievements of science and technology, as a result of which countless ills that formerly plagued human life and caused great suffering have been remedied," the pope said.


A Survey of Large Language Models Attribution

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Open-domain generative systems have gained significant attention in the field of conversational AI (e.g., generative search engines). This paper presents a comprehensive review of the attribution mechanisms employed by these systems, particularly large language models. Though attribution or citation improve the factuality and verifiability, issues like ambiguous knowledge reservoirs, inherent biases, and the drawbacks of excessive attribution can hinder the effectiveness of these systems. The aim of this survey is to provide valuable insights for researchers, aiding in the refinement of attribution methodologies to enhance the reliability and veracity of responses generated by open-domain generative systems. We believe that this field is still in its early stages; hence, we maintain a repository to keep track of ongoing studies at https://github.com/HITsz-TMG/awesome-llm-attributions.


Adaptive parameter sharing for multi-agent reinforcement learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Parameter sharing, as an important technique in multi-agent systems, can effectively solve the scalability issue in large-scale agent problems. However, the effectiveness of parameter sharing largely depends on the environment setting. When agents have different identities or tasks, naive parameter sharing makes it difficult to generate sufficiently differentiated strategies for agents. Inspired by research pertaining to the brain in biology, we propose a novel parameter sharing method. It maps each type of agent to different regions within a shared network based on their identity, resulting in distinct subnetworks. Therefore, our method can increase the diversity of strategies among different agents without introducing additional training parameters. Through experiments conducted in multiple environments, our method has shown better performance than other parameter sharing methods.


Symbolic Regression of Dynamic Network Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Growing interest in modelling complex systems from brains to societies to cities using networks has led to increased efforts to describe generative processes that explain those networks. Recent successes in machine learning have prompted the usage of evolutionary computation, especially genetic programming to evolve computer programs that effectively forage a multidimensional search space to iteratively find better solutions that explain network structure. Symbolic regression contributes to these approaches by replicating network morphologies using both structure and processes, all while not relying on the scientist's intuition or expertise. It distinguishes itself by introducing a novel formulation of a network generator and a parameter-free fitness function to evaluate the generated network and is found to consistently retrieve synthetically generated growth processes as well as simple, interpretable rules for a range of empirical networks. We extend this approach by modifying generator semantics to create and retrieve rules for time-varying networks. Lexicon to study networks created dynamically in multiple stages is introduced. The framework was improved using methods from the genetic programming toolkit (recombination) and computational improvements (using heuristic distance measures) and used to test the consistency and robustness of the upgrades to the semantics using synthetically generated networks. Using recombination was found to improve retrieval rate and fitness of the solutions. The framework was then used on three empirical datasets - subway networks of major cities, regions of street networks and semantic co-occurrence networks of literature in Artificial Intelligence to illustrate the possibility of obtaining interpretable, decentralised growth processes from complex networks.


High-Resolution Maps of Left Atrial Displacements and Strains Estimated with 3D CINE MRI and Unsupervised Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The functional analysis of the left atrium (LA) is important for evaluating cardiac health and understanding diseases like atrial fibrillation. Cine MRI is ideally placed for the detailed 3D characterisation of LA motion and deformation, but it is lacking appropriate acquisition and analysis tools. In this paper, we present Analysis for Left Atrial Displacements and Deformations using unsupervIsed neural Networks, \textit{Aladdin}, to automatically and reliably characterise regional LA deformations from high-resolution 3D Cine MRI. The tool includes: an online few-shot segmentation network (Aladdin-S), an online unsupervised image registration network (Aladdin-R), and a strain calculations pipeline tailored to the LA. We create maps of LA Displacement Vector Field (DVF) magnitude and LA principal strain values from images of 10 healthy volunteers and 8 patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). We additionally create an atlas of these biomarkers using the data from the healthy volunteers. Aladdin is able to accurately track the LA wall across the cardiac cycle and characterize its motion and deformation. The overall DVF magnitude and principal strain values are significantly higher in the healthy group vs CVD patients: $2.85 \pm 1.59~mm$ and $0.09 \pm 0.05$ vs $1.96 \pm 0.74~mm$ and $0.03 \pm 0.04$, respectively. The time course of these metrics is also different in the two groups, with a more marked active contraction phase observed in the healthy cohort. Finally, utilizing the LA atlas allows us to identify regional deviations from the population distribution that may indicate focal tissue abnormalities. The proposed tool for the quantification of novel regional LA deformation biomarkers should have important clinical applications. The source code, anonymized images, generated maps and atlas are publicly available: https://github.com/cgalaz01/aladdin_cmr_la.


Audio-visual fine-tuning of audio-only ASR models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Audio-visual automatic speech recognition (AV-ASR) models are very effective at reducing word error rates on noisy speech, but require large amounts of transcribed AV training data. Recently, audio-visual self-supervised learning (SSL) approaches have been developed to reduce this dependence on transcribed AV data, but these methods are quite complex and computationally expensive. In this work, we propose replacing these expensive AV-SSL methods with a simple and fast \textit{audio-only} SSL method, and then performing AV supervised fine-tuning. We show that this approach is competitive with state-of-the-art (SOTA) AV-SSL methods on the LRS3-TED benchmark task (within 0.5% absolute WER), while being dramatically simpler and more efficient (12-30x faster to pre-train). Furthermore, we show we can extend this approach to convert a SOTA audio-only ASR model into an AV model. By doing so, we match SOTA AV-SSL results, even though no AV data was used during pre-training.