The importance of monitoring and predicting droughts is underscored by their frequent occurrence in diverse geographical landscapes (Ghozat et al., 2023). Moreover, the likelihood of droughts is expected to increase in the context of global climate change (Xiujia et al., 2022). Their accurate forecasting, however, is a complex problem due to the inherent difficulty in predicting the onset, duration, and cessation of drought events (Mishra and Desai, 2005). This complexity necessitates the development of sophisticated forecasting models that can effectively navigate these challenges. To frame our problem, it is essential to define the prediction target and establish a suitable time horizon for forecasting (Zhang et al., 2019). Given our focus on long-term decision-making, we aim to generate forecasts that extend 12 months into the future. Selecting an appropriate target for drought prediction is more challenging due to its dependence on multiple climatic factors, including temperature and precipitation. Among the various drought severity indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al., 1993) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) (Alley, 1984) stand out as fundamental measures.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have seen widespread deployment in various real-world applications. Understanding these biases is crucial to comprehend the potential downstream consequences when using LLMs to make decisions, particularly for historically disadvantaged groups. In this work, we propose a simple method for analyzing and comparing demographic bias in LLMs, through the lens of job recommendations. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by measuring intersectional biases within ChatGPT and LLaMA, two cutting-edge LLMs. Our experiments primarily focus on uncovering gender identity and nationality bias; however, our method can be extended to examine biases associated with any intersection of demographic identities. We identify distinct biases in both models toward various demographic identities, such as both models consistently suggesting low-paying jobs for Mexican workers or preferring to recommend secretarial roles to women. Our study highlights the importance of measuring the bias of LLMs in downstream applications to understand the potential for harm and inequitable outcomes.

In this work, we propose an original method for aggregating multiple clustering coming from different sources of information. Each partition is encoded by a co-membership matrix between observations. Our approach uses a mixture of multilayer Stochastic Block Models (SBM) to group co-membership matrices with similar information into components and to partition observations into different clusters, taking into account their specificities within the components. The identifiability of the model parameters is established and a variational Bayesian EM algorithm is proposed for the estimation of these parameters. The Bayesian framework allows for selecting an optimal number of clusters and components. The proposed approach is compared using synthetic data with consensus clustering and tensor-based algorithms for community detection in large-scale complex networks. Finally, the method is utilized to analyze global food trading networks, leading to structures of interest.

Yiwen Lin, University of California, Irvine Lauren Snow, University of California, Irvine Acknowledgments: This work was partially supported by the National Science Foundation (Grant Number 1535300), and National Institutes of Health (Grant Number 5UC2NS128361-02). Abstract Collaboration is key to STEM, where multidisciplinary team research can solve complex problems. However, inequality in STEM fields hinders their full potential, due to persistent psychological barriers in underrepresented students' experience. This paper documents teamwork in STEM and explores the transformative potential of computational modeling and generative AI in promoting STEM-team diversity and inclusion. Leveraging generative AI, this paper outlines two primary areas for advancing diversity, equity, and inclusion. First, formalizing collaboration assessment with inclusive analytics can capture fine-grained learner behavior. Second, adaptive, personalized AI systems can support diversity and inclusion in STEM teams. Four policy recommendations highlight AI's capacity: formalized collaborative skill assessment, inclusive analytics, funding for socio-cognitive research, human-AI teaming for inclusion training.

AI and generative AI tools, including chatbots like ChatGPT that rely on large language models (LLMs), have burst onto the scene this year, creating incredible opportunities to increase work productivity and improve our lives. Statisticians and data scientists have begun experiencing the benefits from the availability of these tools in numerous ways, such as the generation of programming code from text prompts to analyze data or fit statistical models. One area that these tools can make a substantial impact is in research discovery and summarization. Standalone tools and plugins to chatbots are being developed that allow researchers to more quickly find relevant literature than pre-2023 search tools. Furthermore, generative AI tools have improved to the point where they can summarize and extract the key points from research articles in succinct language. Finally, chatbots based on highly parameterized LLMs can be used to simulate abductive reasoning, which provides researchers the ability to make connections among related technical topics, which can also be used for research discovery. We review the developments in AI and generative AI for research discovery and summarization, and propose directions where these types of tools are likely to head in the future that may be of interest to statistician and data scientists.

We present a benchmark for assessing the capability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to discern intercardinal directions between geographic locations and apply it to three prominent LLMs: GPT-3.5, GPT-4, and Llama-2. This benchmark specifically evaluates whether LLMs exhibit a hierarchical spatial bias similar to humans, where judgments about individual locations' spatial relationships are influenced by the perceived relationships of the larger groups that contain them. To investigate this, we formulated 14 questions focusing on well-known American cities. Seven questions were designed to challenge the LLMs with scenarios potentially influenced by the orientation of larger geographical units, such as states or countries, while the remaining seven targeted locations less susceptible to such hierarchical categorization. Among the tested models, GPT-4 exhibited superior performance with 55.3% accuracy, followed by GPT-3.5 at 47.3%, and Llama-2 at 44.7%. The models showed significantly reduced accuracy on tasks with suspected hierarchical bias. For example, GPT-4's accuracy dropped to 32.9% on these tasks, compared to 85.7% on others. Despite these inaccuracies, the models identified the nearest cardinal direction in most cases, suggesting associative learning, embodying human-like misconceptions. We discuss the potential of text-based data representing geographic relationships directly to improve the spatial reasoning capabilities of LLMs.

Automatically understanding funny moments (i.e., the moments that make people laugh) when watching comedy is challenging, as they relate to various features, such as body language, dialogues and culture. In this paper, we propose FunnyNet-W, a model that relies on cross- and self-attention for visual, audio and text data to predict funny moments in videos. Unlike most methods that rely on ground truth data in the form of subtitles, in this work we exploit modalities that come naturally with videos: (a) video frames as they contain visual information indispensable for scene understanding, (b) audio as it contains higher-level cues associated with funny moments, such as intonation, pitch and pauses and (c) text automatically extracted with a speech-to-text model as it can provide rich information when processed by a Large Language Model. To acquire labels for training, we propose an unsupervised approach that spots and labels funny audio moments. We provide experiments on five datasets: the sitcoms TBBT, MHD, MUStARD, Friends, and the TED talk UR-Funny. Extensive experiments and analysis show that FunnyNet-W successfully exploits visual, auditory and textual cues to identify funny moments, while our findings reveal FunnyNet-W's ability to predict funny moments in the wild. FunnyNet-W sets the new state of the art for funny moment detection with multimodal cues on all datasets with and without using ground truth information.

During the architectural analysis, abstract artifacts need to be precisely identified and specified in order to efficiently guide the development, evolution and deployment of the overall system. Considering such an early stage, architectural decisions become even more challenging due to the lack of knowledge about the system but, at the same time, they are crucial to fulfill the many quality criteria imposed [12]. Artificial intelligence techniques and, more specifically, metaheuristics, can support software engineers in their decision processes by providing them with effective methods to explore a great deal of software designs, each one determined by a different trade-off among the required quality aspects. Such a scenario can be viewed as one of the goals of the search-based software engineering (SBSE) field[14], in which optimization techniques are applied to the resolution of software engineering (SE) tasks conveniently reformulated as search problems. However, solving human-centered activities in a fully automated way seems to be unrealistic, especially for those related to the analysis phase. Certainly, trying to capture the richness of human knowledge only by means of software metrics still represents an unresolved matter to the SE community [32]. Hence, most of the evaluation methods proposed at the architectural level strongly rely on the expert's judgment [10], making extremely difficult to precisely formulate a quantitative fitness function. Given the relevance of the software architect for the design process, searchbased approaches should benefit from his/her knowledge and expertise in order to address the optimization problem in the same way s/he would do it. Interactive optimization [21] constitutes a compelling paradigm here.

End-to-end multi-talker speech recognition has garnered great interest as an effective approach to directly transcribe overlapped speech from multiple speakers. Current methods typically adopt either 1) single-input multiple-output (SIMO) models with a branched encoder, or 2) single-input single-output (SISO) models based on attention-based encoder-decoder architecture with serialized output training (SOT). In this work, we propose a Cross-Speaker Encoding (CSE) network to address the limitations of SIMO models by aggregating cross-speaker representations. Furthermore, the CSE model is integrated with SOT to leverage both the advantages of SIMO and SISO while mitigating their drawbacks. To the best of our knowledge, this work represents an early effort to integrate SIMO and SISO for multi-talker speech recognition. Experiments on the two-speaker LibrispeechMix dataset show that the CES model reduces word error rate (WER) by 8% over the SIMO baseline. The CSE-SOT model reduces WER by 10% overall and by 16% on high-overlap speech compared to the SOT model.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have led to high-quality Machine-Generated Text (MGT), giving rise to countless new use cases and applications. However, easy access to LLMs is posing new challenges due to misuse. To address malicious usage, researchers have released datasets to effectively train models on MGT-related tasks. Similar strategies are used to compile these datasets, but no tool currently unifies them. In this scenario, we introduce TextMachina, a modular and extensible Python framework, designed to aid in the creation of high-quality, unbiased datasets to build robust models for MGT-related tasks such as detection, attribution, or boundary detection. It provides a user-friendly pipeline that abstracts away the inherent intricacies of building MGT datasets, such as LLM integrations, prompt templating, and bias mitigation. The quality of the datasets generated by TextMachina has been assessed in previous works, including shared tasks where more than one hundred teams trained robust MGT detectors.