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FusionTransNet for Smart Urban Mobility: Spatiotemporal Traffic Forecasting Through Multimodal Network Integration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study develops FusionTransNet, a framework designed for Origin-Destination (OD) flow predictions within smart and multimodal urban transportation systems. Urban transportation complexity arises from the spatiotemporal interactions among various traffic modes. Motivated by analyzing multimodal data from Shenzhen, a framework that can dissect complicated spatiotemporal interactions between these modes, from the microscopic local level to the macroscopic city-wide perspective, is essential. The framework contains three core components: the Intra-modal Learning Module, the Inter-modal Learning Module, and the Prediction Decoder. The Intra-modal Learning Module is designed to analyze spatial dependencies within individual transportation modes, facilitating a granular understanding of single-mode spatiotemporal dynamics. The Inter-modal Learning Module extends this analysis, integrating data across different modes to uncover cross-modal interdependencies, by breaking down the interactions at both local and global scales. Finally, the Prediction Decoder synthesizes insights from the preceding modules to generate accurate OD flow predictions, translating complex multimodal interactions into forecasts. Empirical evaluations conducted in metropolitan contexts, including Shenzhen and New York, demonstrate FusionTransNet's superior predictive accuracy compared to existing state-of-the-art methods. The implication of this study extends beyond urban transportation, as the method for transferring information across different spatiotemporal graphs at both local and global scales can be instrumental in other spatial systems, such as supply chain logistics and epidemics spreading.


One vs. Many: Comprehending Accurate Information from Multiple Erroneous and Inconsistent AI Generations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are nondeterministic, the same input can generate different outputs, some of which may be incorrect or hallucinated. If run again, the LLM may correct itself and produce the correct answer. Unfortunately, most LLM-powered systems resort to single results which, correct or not, users accept. Having the LLM produce multiple outputs may help identify disagreements or alternatives. However, it is not obvious how the user will interpret conflicts or inconsistencies. To this end, we investigate how users perceive the AI model and comprehend the generated information when they receive multiple, potentially inconsistent, outputs. Through a preliminary study, we identified five types of output inconsistencies. Based on these categories, we conducted a study (N=252) in which participants were given one or more LLM-generated passages to an information-seeking question. We found that inconsistency within multiple LLM-generated outputs lowered the participants' perceived AI capacity, while also increasing their comprehension of the given information. Specifically, we observed that this positive effect of inconsistencies was most significant for participants who read two passages, compared to those who read three. Based on these findings, we present design implications that, instead of regarding LLM output inconsistencies as a drawback, we can reveal the potential inconsistencies to transparently indicate the limitations of these models and promote critical LLM usage.


Natural Language Processing RELIES on Linguistics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become capable of generating highly fluent text in certain languages, without modules specially designed to capture grammar or semantic coherence. What does this mean for the future of linguistic expertise in NLP? We highlight several aspects in which NLP (still) relies on linguistics, or where linguistic thinking can illuminate new directions. We argue our case around the acronym $RELIES$ that encapsulates six major facets where linguistics contributes to NLP: $R$esources, $E$valuation, $L$ow-resource settings, $I$nterpretability, $E$xplanation, and the $S$tudy of language. This list is not exhaustive, nor is linguistics the main point of reference for every effort under these themes; but at a macro level, these facets highlight the enduring importance of studying machine systems vis-a-vis systems of human language.


Fair Voting Outcomes with Impact and Novelty Compromises? Unraveling Biases of Equal Shares in Participatory Budgeting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Participatory budgeting, as a paradigm for democratic innovations, engages citizens in the distribution of a public budget to projects, which they propose and vote for implementation. So far, voting algorithms have been devised and studied in social choice literature to elect projects that are popular, while others prioritize on a proportional representation of voters' preferences, for instance, equal shares. However, the anticipated impact and novelty in the broader society by the winning projects, as selected by different algorithms, remains totally under-explored, lacking both a universal theory of impact for voting and a rigorous framework for impact and novelty assessments. This papers tackles this grand challenge towards new axiomatic foundations for designing effective and fair voting methods. This is via new and striking insights derived from a large-scale analysis of biases over 345 real-world voting outcomes, characterized for the first time by a novel portfolio of impact and novelty metrics. We find strong causal evidence that equal shares comes with impact loss in several infrastructural projects of different cost levels that have been so far over-represented. However, it also comes with a novel, yet over-represented, impact gain in welfare, education and culture. We discuss broader implications of these results and how impact loss can be mitigated at the stage of campaign design and project ideation.


People cannot distinguish GPT-4 from a human in a Turing test

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We evaluated 3 systems (ELIZA, GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) in a randomized, controlled, and preregistered Turing test. Human participants had a 5 minute conversation with either a human or an AI, and judged whether or not they thought their interlocutor was human. GPT-4 was judged to be a human 54% of the time, outperforming ELIZA (22%) but lagging behind actual humans (67%). The results provide the first robust empirical demonstration that any artificial system passes an interactive 2-player Turing test. The results have implications for debates around machine intelligence and, more urgently, suggest that deception by current AI systems may go undetected. Analysis of participants' strategies and reasoning suggests that stylistic and socio-emotional factors play a larger role in passing the Turing test than traditional notions of intelligence.


A First Step in Using Machine Learning Methods to Enhance Interaction Analysis for Embodied Learning Environments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Investigating children's embodied learning in mixed-reality environments, where they collaboratively simulate scientific processes, requires analyzing complex multimodal data to interpret their learning and coordination behaviors. Learning scientists have developed Interaction Analysis (IA) methodologies for analyzing such data, but this requires researchers to watch hours of videos to extract and interpret students' learning patterns. Our study aims to simplify researchers' tasks, using Machine Learning and Multimodal Learning Analytics to support the IA processes. Our study combines machine learning algorithms and multimodal analyses to support and streamline researcher efforts in developing a comprehensive understanding of students' scientific engagement through their movements, gaze, and affective responses in a simulated scenario. To facilitate an effective researcher-AI partnership, we present an initial case study to determine the feasibility of visually representing students' states, actions, gaze, affect, and movement on a timeline. Our case study focuses on a specific science scenario where students learn about photosynthesis. The timeline allows us to investigate the alignment of critical learning moments identified by multimodal and interaction analysis, and uncover insights into students' temporal learning progressions.


Weakly-Supervised Residual Evidential Learning for Multi-Instance Uncertainty Estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Uncertainty estimation (UE), as an effective means of quantifying predictive uncertainty, is crucial for safe and reliable decision-making, especially in high-risk scenarios. Existing UE schemes usually assume that there are completely-labeled samples to support fully-supervised learning. In practice, however, many UE tasks often have no sufficiently-labeled data to use, such as the Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) with only weak instance annotations. To bridge this gap, this paper, for the first time, addresses the weakly-supervised issue of Multi-Instance UE (MIUE) and proposes a new baseline scheme, Multi-Instance Residual Evidential Learning (MIREL). Particularly, at the fine-grained instance UE with only weak supervision, we derive a multi-instance residual operator through the Fundamental Theorem of Symmetric Functions. On this operator derivation, we further propose MIREL to jointly model the high-order predictive distribution at bag and instance levels for MIUE. Extensive experiments empirically demonstrate that our MIREL not only could often make existing MIL networks perform better in MIUE, but also could surpass representative UE methods by large margins, especially in instance-level UE tasks. Our source code is available at https://github.com/liupei101/MIREL.


MFA-Net: Multi-Scale feature fusion attention network for liver tumor segmentation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Segmentation of organs of interest in medical CT images is beneficial for diagnosis of diseases. Though recent methods based on Fully Convolutional Neural Networks (F-CNNs) have shown success in many segmentation tasks, fusing features from images with different scales is still a challenge: (1) Due to the lack of spatial awareness, F-CNNs share the same weights at different spatial locations. (2) F-CNNs can only obtain surrounding information through local receptive fields. To address the above challenge, we propose a new segmentation framework based on attention mechanisms, named MFA-Net (Multi-Scale Feature Fusion Attention Network). The proposed framework can learn more meaningful feature maps among multiple scales and result in more accurate automatic segmentation. We compare our proposed MFA-Net with SOTA methods on two 2D liver CT datasets. The experimental results show that our MFA-Net produces more precise segmentation on images with different scales.


Exploring the Potential of Human-LLM Synergy in Advancing Qualitative Analysis: A Case Study on Mental-Illness Stigma

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Qualitative analysis is a challenging, yet crucial aspect of advancing research in the field of Human-Computer Interaction (HCI). Recent studies show that large language models (LLMs) can perform qualitative coding within existing schemes, but their potential for collaborative human-LLM discovery and new insight generation in qualitative analysis is still underexplored. To bridge this gap and advance qualitative analysis by harnessing the power of LLMs, we propose CHALET, a novel methodology that leverages the human-LLM collaboration paradigm to facilitate conceptualization and empower qualitative research. The CHALET approach involves LLM-supported data collection, performing both human and LLM deductive coding to identify disagreements, and performing collaborative inductive coding on these disagreement cases to derive new conceptual insights. We validated the effectiveness of CHALET through its application to the attribution model of mental-illness stigma, uncovering implicit stigmatization themes on cognitive, emotional and behavioral dimensions. We discuss the implications for future research, methodology, and the transdisciplinary opportunities CHALET presents for the HCI community and beyond.


A Robust eLORETA Technique for Localization of Brain Sources in the Presence of Forward Model Uncertainties

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we present a robust version of the well-known exact low-resolution electromagnetic tomography (eLORETA) technique, named ReLORETA, to localize brain sources in the presence of different forward model uncertainties. Methods: We first assume that the true lead field matrix is a transformation of the existing lead field matrix distorted by uncertainties and propose an iterative approach to estimate this transformation accurately. Major sources of the forward model uncertainties, including differences in geometry, conductivity, and source space resolution between the real and simulated head models, and misaligned electrode positions, are then simulated to test the proposed method. Results: ReLORETA and eLORETA are applied to simulated focal sources in different regions of the brain and the presence of various noise levels as well as real data from a patient with focal epilepsy. The results show that ReLORETA is considerably more robust and accurate than eLORETA in all cases. Conclusion: Having successfully dealt with the forward model uncertainties, ReLORETA proved to be a promising method for real-world clinical applications. Significance: eLORETA is one of the localization techniques that could be used to study brain activity for medical applications such as determining the epileptogenic zone in patients with medically refractory epilepsy. However, the major limitation of eLORETA is sensitivity to the uncertainties in the forward model. Since this problem can substantially undermine its performance in real-world applications where the exact lead field matrix is unknown, developing a more robust method capable of dealing with these uncertainties is of significant interest.