São Paulo
Marina Larroudé Is Disrupting the Fashion Industry One Shoe at a Time
Follow this author to personalize your feed and get instant alerts. Follow Go to your personalized feed WHY FOLLOW? Smart Alerts: Get notified about major news as it happens. Carlin is a contributor for TIME. Growing up in São Paulo, it was so hot that "wearing black was not even an option," says the former fashion director turned shoe designer, 46, who has called New York City home for half her life.
LoBoost: Fast Model-Native Local Conformal Prediction for Gradient-Boosted Trees
Santos, Vagner, Coscrato, Victor, Cabezas, Luben, Izbicki, Rafael, Ramos, Thiago
Gradient-boosted decision trees are among the strongest off-the-shelf predictors for tabular regression, but point predictions alone do not quantify uncertainty. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free marginal coverage, yet split conformal uses a single global residual quantile and can be poorly adaptive under heteroscedasticity. Methods that improve adaptivity typically fit auxiliary nuisance models or introduce additional data splits/partitions to learn the conformal score, increasing cost and reducing data efficiency. We propose LoBoost, a model-native local conformal method that reuses the fitted ensemble's leaf structure to define multiscale calibration groups. Each input is encoded by its sequence of visited leaves; at resolution level k, we group points by matching prefixes of leaf indices across the first k trees and calibrate residual quantiles within each group. LoBoost requires no retraining, auxiliary models, or extra splitting beyond the standard train/calibration split. Experiments show competitive interval quality, improved test MSE on most datasets, and large calibration speedups.