Deep learning has shown impressive results in a variety of time series forecasting tasks, where modeling the conditional distribution of the future given the past is the essence. However, when this conditional distribution is non-stationary, it poses challenges for these models to learn consistently and to predict accurately. In this work, we propose a new method to model non-stationary conditional distributions over time by clearly decoupling stationary conditional distribution modeling from non-stationary dynamics modeling. Our method is based on a Bayesian dynamic model that can adapt to conditional distribution changes and a deep conditional distribution model that handles multivariate time series using a factorized output space. Our experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets show that our model can adapt to non-stationary time series better than state-of-the-art deep learning solutions.

What would American cities look like 100 years after human beings have left, with the streets devoid of human life - and beginning to be reclaimed by nature? While the chatbot put our future world in text, the AI photo generator Midjourney painted pictures of these abandoned metropolises, showing the concrete jungles transforming into jungles. Kieron Connolly, author of Abandoned Places and Abandoned Civilizations, says that visions of abandoned cities have a unique power. This isn't what city life is supposed to look like. Nature is allowed to reclaim the land,' Connolly said. ChatGPT writes, 'In the year 2123, the once-thriving metropolis of Chicago stands as a haunting testament to the passage of time and the resilience of nature.

A U.S. military unit operating MQ-9 spy drones has completed its withdrawal from the Maritime Self-Defense Force's Kanoya air base in Kagoshima Prefecture for relocation to Okinawa Prefecture, the Japanese government said Sunday. The Defense Ministry's Kyushu Defense Bureau announced the unit's withdrawal from the Japanese base, where eight MQ-9 aircraft were operated for a limited period of one year from November last year. Up to 200 U.S. military personnel related to the operations were stationed there. The unit will be transferred to the U.S. military's Kadena Air Base in Okinawa Prefecture, near Kagoshima. The drones are set to be used to strengthen surveillance of Chinese military ships in the East China Sea.

Spatiotemporal graph neural networks have shown to be effective in time series forecasting applications, achieving better performance than standard univariate predictors in several settings. These architectures take advantage of a graph structure and relational inductive biases to learn a single (global) inductive model to predict any number of the input time series, each associated with a graph node. Despite the gain achieved in computational and data efficiency w.r.t. fitting a set of local models, relying on a single global model can be a limitation whenever some of the time series are generated by a different spatiotemporal stochastic process. The main objective of this paper is to understand the interplay between globality and locality in graph-based spatiotemporal forecasting, while contextually proposing a methodological framework to rationalize the practice of including trainable node embeddings in such architectures. We ascribe to trainable node embeddings the role of amortizing the learning of specialized components. Moreover, embeddings allow for 1) effectively combining the advantages of shared message-passing layers with node-specific parameters and 2) efficiently transferring the learned model to new node sets. Supported by strong empirical evidence, we provide insights and guidelines for specializing graph-based models to the dynamics of each time series and show how this aspect plays a crucial role in obtaining accurate predictions.

Ken Kocienda walks toward me, with a small white square pinned to his shirt. "Play songs written by Prince, but not performed by Prince," he says. The Sinéad O'Connor version of'Nothing Compares 2 U'--a song originally written by Prince--begins to play. A green volume meter, pause button, and next-song button appear on his hand. He twists his wrist clockwise, and the volume rises. Anticlockwise, and the song gets quieter.

Operators of Electric Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand (E-AMoD) fleets need to make several real-time decisions such as matching available cars to ride requests, rebalancing idle cars to areas of high demand, and charging vehicles to ensure sufficient range. While this problem can be posed as a linear program that optimizes flows over a space-charge-time graph, the size of the resulting optimization problem does not allow for real-time implementation in realistic settings. In this work, we present the E-AMoD control problem through the lens of reinforcement learning and propose a graph network-based framework to achieve drastically improved scalability and superior performance over heuristics. Specifically, we adopt a bi-level formulation where we (1) leverage a graph network-based RL agent to specify a desired next state in the space-charge graph, and (2) solve more tractable linear programs to best achieve the desired state while ensuring feasibility. Experiments using real-world data from San Francisco and New York City show that our approach achieves up to 89% of the profits of the theoretically-optimal solution while achieving more than a 100x speedup in computational time. Furthermore, our approach outperforms the best domain-specific heuristics with comparable runtimes, with an increase in profits by up to 3x. Finally, we highlight promising zero-shot transfer capabilities of our learned policy on tasks such as inter-city generalization and service area expansion, thus showing the utility, scalability, and flexibility of our framework.

Despite the existence of various benchmarks for evaluating natural language processing models, we argue that human exams are a more suitable means of evaluating general intelligence for large language models (LLMs), as they inherently demand a much wider range of abilities such as language understanding, domain knowledge, and problem-solving skills. To this end, we introduce M3Exam, a novel benchmark sourced from real and official human exam questions for evaluating LLMs in a multilingual, multimodal, and multilevel context. M3Exam exhibits three unique characteristics: (1) multilingualism, encompassing questions from multiple countries that require strong multilingual proficiency and cultural knowledge; (2) multimodality, accounting for the multimodal nature of many exam questions to test the model's multimodal understanding capability; and (3) multilevel structure, featuring exams from three critical educational periods to comprehensively assess a model's proficiency at different levels. In total, M3Exam contains 12,317 questions in 9 diverse languages with three educational levels, where about 23\% of the questions require processing images for successful solving. We assess the performance of top-performing LLMs on M3Exam and find that current models, including GPT-4, still struggle with multilingual text, particularly in low-resource and non-Latin script languages. Multimodal LLMs also perform poorly with complex multimodal questions. We believe that M3Exam can be a valuable resource for comprehensively evaluating LLMs by examining their multilingual and multimodal abilities and tracking their development. Data and evaluation code is available at \url{https://github.com/DAMO-NLP-SG/M3Exam}.

We propose a new dataset distillation algorithm using reparameterization and convexification of implicit gradients (RCIG), that substantially improves the state-of-the-art. To this end, we first formulate dataset distillation as a bi-level optimization problem. Then, we show how implicit gradients can be effectively used to compute meta-gradient updates. We further equip the algorithm with a convexified approximation that corresponds to learning on top of a frozen finite-width neural tangent kernel. Finally, we improve bias in implicit gradients by parameterizing the neural network to enable analytical computation of final-layer parameters given the body parameters. RCIG establishes the new state-of-the-art on a diverse series of dataset distillation tasks. Notably, with one image per class, on resized ImageNet, RCIG sees on average a 108\% improvement over the previous state-of-the-art distillation algorithm. Similarly, we observed a 66\% gain over SOTA on Tiny-ImageNet and 37\% on CIFAR-100.

The performance of transformers for time-series forecasting has improved significantly. Recent architectures learn complex temporal patterns by segmenting a time-series into patches and using the patches as tokens. The patch size controls the ability of transformers to learn the temporal patterns at different frequencies: shorter patches are effective for learning localized, high-frequency patterns, whereas mining long-term seasonalities and trends requires longer patches. Inspired by this observation, we propose a novel framework, Multi-resolution Time-Series Transformer (MTST), which consists of a multi-branch architecture for simultaneous modeling of diverse temporal patterns at different resolutions. In contrast to many existing time-series transformers, we employ relative positional encoding, which is better suited for extracting periodic components at different scales. Extensive experiments on several real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of MTST in comparison to state-of-the-art forecasting techniques.

Warm-sector heavy rainfall often occurs along the coast of South China, and it is usually localized and long-lasting, making it challenging to predict. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are increasingly used to better resolve topographic features and forecast such high-impact weather events. However, when the grid spacing becomes comparable to the length scales of convection, known as the gray zone, the turbulent eddies in the atmospheric boundary layer are only partially resolved and parameterized to some extent. Whether using a convection parameterization (CP) scheme in the gray zone remains controversial. Scale-aware CP schemes are developed to enhance the representation of convective transport within the gray zone. The multi-scale Kain-Fritsch (MSKF) scheme includes modifications that allow for its effective implementation at a grid resolution as high as 2 km. In recent years, there has been an increasing application of machine learning (ML) models to various domains of atmospheric sciences, including the replacement of physical parameterizations with ML models. This work proposes a multi-output bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) model as a replace the scale-aware MSKF CP scheme. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to generate training and testing data over South China at a horizontal resolution of 5 km. Furthermore, the WRF model is coupled with the ML based CP scheme and compared with WRF simulations with original MSKF scheme. The results demonstrate that the Bi-LSTM model can achieve high accuracy, indicating the potential use of ML models to substitute the MSKF scheme in the gray zone.