In contemporary scientific research, understanding the distinction between correlation and causation is crucial. While correlation is a widely used analytical standard, it does not inherently imply causation. This paper addresses the potential for misinterpretation in relying solely on correlation, especially in the context of nonlinear dynamics. Despite the rapid development of various correlation research methodologies, including machine learning, the exploration into mining causal correlations between variables remains ongoing. Empirical Dynamic Modeling (EDM) emerges as a data-driven framework for modeling dynamic systems, distinguishing itself by eschewing traditional formulaic methods in data analysis. Instead, it reconstructs dynamic system behavior directly from time series data. The fundamental premise of EDM is that dynamic systems can be conceptualized as processes where a set of states, governed by specific rules, evolve over time in a high-dimensional space. By reconstructing these evolving states, dynamic systems can be effectively modeled. Using EDM, this paper explores the detection of causal relationships between variables within dynamic systems through their time series data. It posits that if variable X causes variable Y, then the information about X is inherent in Y and can be extracted from Y's data. This study begins by examining the dialectical relationship between correlation and causation, emphasizing that correlation does not equate to causation, and the absence of correlation does not necessarily indicate a lack of causation.

A data-driven model for predicting the surface temperature using neural networks was proposed to alleviate the computational burden of numerical weather prediction (NWP). Our model, named TPTNet uses only 2m temperature measured at the weather stations of the South Korean Peninsula as input to predict the local temperature at finite forecast hours. The turbulent fluctuation component of the temperature was extracted from the station measurements by separating the climatology component accounting for the yearly and daily variations. The effect of station altitude was then compensated by introducing a potential temperature. The resulting turbulent potential temperature data at irregularly distributed stations were used as input for predicting the turbulent potential temperature at forecast hours through three trained networks based on convolutional neural network (CNN), Swin Transformer, and a graphic neural network (GNN). The prediction performance of our network was compared with that of persistence and NWP, confirming that our model outperformed NWP for up to 12 forecast hours.

To combat the potential misuse of Natural Language Generation (NLG) technology, a variety of algorithms have been developed for the detection of AI-generated texts. Traditionally, this task is treated as a binary classification problem. Although supervised learning has demonstrated promising results, acquiring labeled data for detection purposes poses real-world challenges and the risk of overfitting. In an effort to address these issues, we delve into the realm of zero-shot machine-generated text detection. Existing zero-shot detectors, typically designed for specific tasks or topics, often assume uniform testing scenarios, limiting their practicality. In our research, we explore various advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) and their specialized variants, contributing to this field in several ways. In empirical studies, we uncover a significant correlation between topics and detection performance. Secondly, we delve into the influence of topic shifts on zero-shot detectors. These investigations shed light on the adaptability and robustness of these detection methods across diverse topics. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/yfzhang114/robustness-detection}.

This research introduces an innovative evaluation method for the "founder-idea" fit in early-stage startups, utilizing advanced large language model techniques to assess founders' profiles against their startup ideas to enhance decision-making. Embeddings, self-play, tree-of-thought, and critique-based refinement techniques show early promising results that each idea's success patterns are unique and they should be evaluated based on the context of the founder's background.

EXCLUSIVE: A top House Republican is warning that the U.S. needs to stay ahead of China, Russia and other adversaries in the race to dominate the artificial intelligence (AI) space, particularly with regard to the military. "We've got to develop it. It's got to be managed," Rep. Gary Palmer, R-Ala., chairman of the House Republican Policy Committee, told Fox News Digital when asked how the U.S. military could lead the AI sphere. Palmer suggested the integration of AI with quantum computing would be a significant part of military development going forward. "What that does just by itself – the ability to analyze a situation on the ground or in the air and have an almost instantaneous countermeasure or attack. That's what quantum computing does," Palmer said.

Ocean and climate research benefits from global ocean observation initiatives such as Argo, GLOSS, and EMSO. The Argo network, dedicated to ocean profiling, generates a vast volume of observatory data. However, data quality issues from sensor malfunctions and transmission errors necessitate stringent quality assessment. Existing methods, including machine learning, fall short due to limited labeled data and imbalanced datasets. To address these challenges, we propose an ODEAL framework for ocean data quality assessment, employing AL to reduce human experts' workload in the quality assessment workflow and leveraging outlier detection algorithms for effective model initialization. We also conduct extensive experiments on five large-scale realistic Argo datasets to gain insights into our proposed method, including the effectiveness of AL query strategies and the initial set construction approach. The results suggest that our framework enhances quality assessment efficiency by up to 465.5% with the uncertainty-based query strategy compared to random sampling and minimizes overall annotation costs by up to 76.9% using the initial set built with outlier detectors.

Near future air taxi operations with electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft will be constrained by the need for frequent recharging of eVTOLs, limited takeoff and landing pads in vertiports, and subject to time-varying demand and electricity prices, making the eVTOL dispatch problem unique and particularly challenging to solve. Previously, we have developed optimization models to address this problem. Such optimization models however suffer from prohibitively high computational run times when the scale of the problem increases, making them less practical for real world implementation. To overcome this issue, we have developed two deep reinforcement learning-based eVTOL dispatch algorithms, namely single-agent and multi-agent deep Q-learning eVTOL dispatch algorithms, where the objective is to maximize operating profit. An eVTOL-based passenger transportation simulation environment was built to assess the performance of our algorithms across $36$ numerical cases with varying number of eVTOLs, vertiports, and demand. The results indicate that the multi-agent eVTOL dispatch algorithm can closely approximate the optimal dispatch policy with significantly less computational expenses compared to the benchmark optimization model. The multi-agent algorithm was found to outperform the single-agent counterpart with respect to both profits generated and training time.

Complex ocean systems such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current play key roles in the climate, and current models predict shifts in their strength and area under climate change. However, the physical processes underlying these changes are not well understood, in part due to the difficulty of characterizing and tracking changes in ocean physics in complex models. Using the Antarctic Circumpolar Current as a case study, we extend the method Tracking global Heating with Ocean Regimes (THOR) to a mesoscale eddy permitting climate model and identify regions of the ocean characterized by similar physics, called dynamical regimes, using readily accessible fields from climate models. To this end, we cluster grid cells into dynamical regimes and train an ensemble of neural networks, allowing uncertainty quantification, to predict these regimes and track them under climate change. Finally, we leverage this new knowledge to elucidate the dynamical drivers of the identified regime shifts as noted by the neural network using the 'explainability' methods SHAP and Layer-wise Relevance Propagation. A region undergoing a profound shift is where the Antarctic Circumpolar Current intersects the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge, an area important for carbon draw-down and fisheries. In this region, THOR specifically reveals a shift in dynamical regime under climate change driven by changes in wind stress and interactions with bathymetry. Using this knowledge to guide further exploration, we find that as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current shifts north under intensifying wind stress, the dominant dynamical role of bathymetry weakens and the flow intensifies.

In this work, we propose a deep learning-based method to perform semiparametric regression analysis for spatially dependent data. To be specific, we use a sparsely connected deep neural network with rectified linear unit (ReLU) activation function to estimate the unknown regression function that describes the relationship between response and covariates in the presence of spatial dependence. Under some mild conditions, the estimator is proven to be consistent, and the rate of convergence is determined by three factors: (1) the architecture of neural network class, (2) the smoothness and (intrinsic) dimension of true mean function, and (3) the magnitude of spatial dependence. Our method can handle well large data set owing to the stochastic gradient descent optimization algorithm. Simulation studies on synthetic data are conducted to assess the finite sample performance, the results of which indicate that the proposed method is capable of picking up the intricate relationship between response and covariates. Finally, a real data analysis is provided to demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Recent studies have shown that deep learning (DL) models can skillfully predict the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts over 1.5 years ahead. However, concerns regarding the reliability of predictions made by DL methods persist, including potential overfitting issues and lack of interpretability. Here, we propose ResoNet, a DL model that combines convolutional neural network (CNN) and Transformer architectures. This hybrid architecture design enables our model to adequately capture local SSTA as well as long-range inter-basin interactions across oceans. We show that ResoNet can robustly predict ESNO at lead times between 19 and 26 months, thus outperforming existing approaches in terms of the forecast horizon. According to an explainability method applied to ResoNet predictions of El Ni\~no and La Ni\~na events from 1- to 18-month lead, we find that it predicts the Ni\~no3.4 index based on multiple physically reasonable mechanisms, such as the Recharge Oscillator concept, Seasonal Footprint Mechanism, and Indian Ocean capacitor effect. Moreover, we demonstrate that for the first time, the asymmetry between El Ni\~no and La Ni\~na development can be captured by ResoNet. Our results could help alleviate skepticism about applying DL models for ENSO prediction and encourage more attempts to discover and predict climate phenomena using AI methods.