Pacific Ocean
Physics-Guided Abnormal Trajectory Gap Detection
Given trajectories with gaps (i.e., missing data), we investigate algorithms to identify abnormal gaps in trajectories which occur when a given moving object did not report its location, but other moving objects in the same geographic region periodically did. The problem is important due to its societal applications, such as improving maritime safety and regulatory enforcement for global security concerns such as illegal fishing, illegal oil transfers, and trans-shipments. The problem is challenging due to the difficulty of bounding the possible locations of the moving object during a trajectory gap, and the very high computational cost of detecting gaps in such a large volume of location data. The current literature on anomalous trajectory detection assumes linear interpolation within gaps, which may not be able to detect abnormal gaps since objects within a given region may have traveled away from their shortest path. In preliminary work, we introduced an abnormal gap measure that uses a classical space-time prism model to bound an object's possible movement during the trajectory gap and provided a scalable memoized gap detection algorithm (Memo-AGD). In this paper, we propose a Space Time-Aware Gap Detection (STAGD) approach to leverage space-time indexing and merging of trajectory gaps. We also incorporate a Dynamic Region Merge-based (DRM) approach to efficiently compute gap abnormality scores. We provide theoretical proofs that both algorithms are correct and complete and also provide analysis of asymptotic time complexity. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world maritime trajectory data show that the proposed approach substantially improves computation time over the baseline technique.
Generating Hard-Negative Out-of-Scope Data with ChatGPT for Intent Classification
Li, Zhijian, Larson, Stefan, Leach, Kevin
Intent classifiers must be able to distinguish when a user's utterance does not belong to any supported intent to avoid producing incorrect and unrelated system responses. Although out-of-scope (OOS) detection for intent classifiers has been studied, previous work has not yet studied changes in classifier performance against hard-negative out-of-scope utterances (i.e., inputs that share common features with in-scope data, but are actually out-of-scope). We present an automated technique to generate hard-negative OOS data using ChatGPT. We use our technique to build five new hard-negative OOS datasets, and evaluate each against three benchmark intent classifiers. We show that classifiers struggle to correctly identify hard-negative OOS utterances more than general OOS utterances. Finally, we show that incorporating hard-negative OOS data for training improves model robustness when detecting hard-negative OOS data and general OOS data. Our technique, datasets, and evaluation address an important void in the field, offering a straightforward and inexpensive way to collect hard-negative OOS data and improve intent classifiers' robustness.
An In-depth Evaluation of GPT-4 in Sentence Simplification with Error-based Human Assessment
Sentence simplification, which rewrites a sentence to be easier to read and understand, is a promising technique to help people with various reading difficulties. With the rise of advanced large language models (LLMs), evaluating their performance in sentence simplification has become imperative. Recent studies have used both automatic metrics and human evaluations to assess the simplification abilities of LLMs. However, the suitability of existing evaluation methodologies for LLMs remains in question. First, the suitability of current automatic metrics on LLMs' simplification evaluation is still uncertain. Second, current human evaluation approaches in sentence simplification often fall into two extremes: they are either too superficial, failing to offer a clear understanding of the models' performance, or overly detailed, making the annotation process complex and prone to inconsistency, which in turn affects the evaluation's reliability. To address these problems, this study provides in-depth insights into LLMs' performance while ensuring the reliability of the evaluation. We design an error-based human annotation framework to assess the GPT-4's simplification capabilities. Results show that GPT-4 generally generates fewer erroneous simplification outputs compared to the current state-of-the-art. However, LLMs have their limitations, as seen in GPT-4's struggles with lexical paraphrasing. Furthermore, we conduct meta-evaluations on widely used automatic metrics using our human annotations. We find that while these metrics are effective for significant quality differences, they lack sufficient sensitivity to assess the overall high-quality simplification by GPT-4.
Storm Surge Modeling in the AI ERA: Using LSTM-based Machine Learning for Enhancing Forecasting Accuracy
Giaremis, Stefanos, Nader, Noujoud, Dawson, Clint, Kaiser, Hartmut, Kaiser, Carola, Nikidis, Efstratios
Physics simulation results of natural processes usually do not fully capture the real world. This is caused for instance by limits in what physical processes are simulated and to what accuracy. In this work we propose and analyze the use of an LSTM-based deep learning network machine learning (ML) architecture for capturing and predicting the behavior of the systemic error for storm surge forecast models with respect to real-world water height observations from gauge stations during hurricane events. The overall goal of this work is to predict the systemic error of the physics model and use it to improve the accuracy of the simulation results post factum. We trained our proposed ML model on a dataset of 61 historical storms in the coastal regions of the U.S. and we tested its performance in bias correcting modeled water level data predictions from hurricane Ian (2022). We show that our model can consistently improve the forecasting accuracy for hurricane Ian -- unknown to the ML model -- at all gauge station coordinates used for the initial data. Moreover, by examining the impact of using different subsets of the initial training dataset, containing a number of relatively similar or different hurricanes in terms of hurricane track, we found that we can obtain similar quality of bias correction by only using a subset of six hurricanes. This is an important result that implies the possibility to apply a pre-trained ML model to real-time hurricane forecasting results with the goal of bias correcting and improving the produced simulation accuracy. The presented work is an important first step in creating a bias correction system for real-time storm surge forecasting applicable to the full simulation area. It also presents a highly transferable and operationally applicable methodology for improving the accuracy in a wide range of physics simulation scenarios beyond storm surge forecasting.
SalienTime: User-driven Selection of Salient Time Steps for Large-Scale Geospatial Data Visualization
Chen, Juntong, Huang, Haiwen, Ye, Huayuan, Peng, Zhong, Li, Chenhui, Wang, Changbo
The voluminous nature of geospatial temporal data from physical monitors and simulation models poses challenges to efficient data access, often resulting in cumbersome temporal selection experiences in web-based data portals. Thus, selecting a subset of time steps for prioritized visualization and pre-loading is highly desirable. Addressing this issue, this paper establishes a multifaceted definition of salient time steps via extensive need-finding studies with domain experts to understand their workflows. Building on this, we propose a novel approach that leverages autoencoders and dynamic programming to facilitate user-driven temporal selections. Structural features, statistical variations, and distance penalties are incorporated to make more flexible selections. User-specified priorities, spatial regions, and aggregations are used to combine different perspectives. We design and implement a web-based interface to enable efficient and context-aware selection of time steps and evaluate its efficacy and usability through case studies, quantitative evaluations, and expert interviews.
Towards Democratized Flood Risk Management: An Advanced AI Assistant Enabled by GPT-4 for Enhanced Interpretability and Public Engagement
Martelo, Rafaela, Wang, Ruo-Qian
Real-time flood forecasting plays a crucial role in enabling timely and effective emergency responses. However, a significant challenge lies in bridging the gap between complex numerical flood models and practical decision-making. Decision-makers often rely on experts to interpret these models for optimizing flood mitigation strategies. And the public requires complex techniques to inquiry and understand socio-cultural and institutional factors, often hinders the public's understanding of flood risks. To overcome these challenges, our study introduces an innovative solution: a customized AI Assistant powered by the GPT-4 Large Language Model. This AI Assistant is designed to facilitate effective communication between decision-makers, the general public, and flood forecasters, without the requirement of specialized knowledge. The new framework utilizes GPT-4's advanced natural language understanding and function calling capabilities to provide immediate flood alerts and respond to various flood-related inquiries. Our developed prototype integrates real-time flood warnings with flood maps and social vulnerability data. It also effectively translates complex flood zone information into actionable risk management advice. To assess its performance, we evaluated the prototype using six criteria within three main categories: relevance, error resilience, and understanding of context. Our research marks a significant step towards a more accessible and user-friendly approach in flood risk management. This study highlights the potential of advanced AI tools like GPT-4 in democratizing information and enhancing public engagement in critical social and environmental issues.
A New Era of Moon Exploration Is Upon Us
On February 22nd, a robotic lander named Odysseus touched down on the sun-washed highlands near the south pole of the moon. It was the first time since the Apollo 17 mission, fifty-two years ago, that an American spacecraft had gracefully landed on the lunar surface. And yet NASA hadn't designed or built Odysseus; it was renting space onboard. Intuitive Machines, a relatively small aerospace firm based in Houston, was responsible for the lander, which launched atop a SpaceX rocket. The event was historic not just because it signalled a return to the moon but because it was the first time that a private company from any country had landed a spacecraft there.
Online Training of Large Language Models: Learn while chatting
Liang, Juhao, Wang, Ziwei, Ma, Zhuoheng, Li, Jianquan, Zhang, Zhiyi, Wu, Xiangbo, Wang, Benyou
Large Language Models(LLMs) have dramatically revolutionized the field of Natural Language Processing(NLP), offering remarkable capabilities that have garnered widespread usage. However, existing interaction paradigms between LLMs and users are constrained by either inflexibility, limitations in customization, or a lack of persistent learning. This inflexibility is particularly evident as users, especially those without programming skills, have restricted avenues to enhance or personalize the model. Existing frameworks further complicate the model training and deployment process due to their computational inefficiencies and lack of user-friendly interfaces. To overcome these challenges, this paper introduces a novel interaction paradigm-'Online Training using External Interactions'-that merges the benefits of persistent, real-time model updates with the flexibility for individual customization through external interactions such as AI agents or online/offline knowledge bases.
DNNLasso: Scalable Graph Learning for Matrix-Variate Data
We consider the problem of jointly learning row-wise and column-wise dependencies of matrix-variate observations, which are modelled separately by two precision matrices. Due to the complicated structure of Kronecker-product precision matrices in the commonly used matrix-variate Gaussian graphical models, a sparser Kronecker-sum structure was proposed recently based on the Cartesian product of graphs. However, existing methods for estimating Kronecker-sum structured precision matrices do not scale well to large scale datasets. In this paper, we introduce DNNLasso, a diagonally non-negative graphical lasso model for estimating the Kronecker-sum structured precision matrix, which outperforms the state-of-the-art methods by a large margin in both accuracy and computational time. Our code is available at https://github.com/YangjingZhang/DNNLasso.
ConvTimeNet: A Deep Hierarchical Fully Convolutional Model for Multivariate Time Series Analysis
Cheng, Mingyue, Yang, Jiqian, Pan, Tingyue, Liu, Qi, Li, Zhi
Over a significant period in the past, the convolutional network [He et al., 2016; Zheng et al., 2014; Middlehurst This paper introduces ConvTimeNet, a novel deep et al., 2023] has played a crucial role in time series analysis, hierarchical fully convolutional network designed largely due to its inherent properties that strike an excellent to serve as a general-purpose model for time series balance between computational efficiency and representation analysis. The key design of this network is twofold, quality. Data back to the past years, many representative designed to overcome the limitations of traditional works [Bagnall et al., 2017] of time series analysis typically convolutional networks. Firstly, we propose an employ convolutional networks as the backbone. For adaptive segmentation of time series into sub-series instance, temporal convolutional network (TCN[Bai et al., level patches, treating these as fundamental modeling 2018]) and its variants are widely used in modeling temporal units. This setting avoids the sparsity semantics variation dependence for the time series forecasting task. Furthermore, associated with raw point-level time steps. Secondly, a large number of works (such as InceptionTime[Ismail we design a fully convolutional block by Fawaz et al., 2020], MiniRocket[Dempster et al., 2021], skillfully integrating deepwise and pointwise convolution and MCNN[Cui et al., 2016]) are also proposed by employing operations, following the advanced building convolutional networks to identify informative patterns block style employed in Transformer encoders.