As datasets capturing human choices grow in richness and scale--particularly in online domains--there is an increasing need for choice models that escape traditional choice-theoretic axioms such as regularity, stochastic transitivity, and Luce's choice axiom. In this work we introduce the Pairwise Choice Markov Chain (PCMC) model of discrete choice, an inferentially tractable model that does not assume any of the above axioms while still satisfying the foundational axiom of uniform expansion, a considerably weaker assumption than Luce's choice axiom. We show that the PCMC model significantly outperforms both the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model and a mixed MNL (MMNL) model in prediction tasks on both synthetic and empirical datasets known to exhibit violations of Luce's axiom. Our analysis also synthesizes several recent observations connecting the Multinomial Logit model and Markov chains; the PCMC model retains the Multinomial Logit model as a special case.

Spatiotemporal datasets, which consist of spatially-referenced time series, are ubiquitous in many scientific and business-intelligence applications, such as air pollution monitoring, disease tracking, and cloud-demand forecasting. As modern datasets continue to increase in size and complexity, there is a growing need for new statistical methods that are flexible enough to capture complex spatiotemporal dynamics and scalable enough to handle large prediction problems. This work presents the Bayesian Neural Field (BayesNF), a domain-general statistical model for inferring rich probability distributions over a spatiotemporal domain, which can be used for data-analysis tasks including forecasting, interpolation, and variography. BayesNF integrates a novel deep neural network architecture for high-capacity function estimation with hierarchical Bayesian inference for robust uncertainty quantification. By defining the prior through a sequence of smooth differentiable transforms, posterior inference is conducted on large-scale data using variationally learned surrogates trained via stochastic gradient descent. We evaluate BayesNF against prominent statistical and machine-learning baselines, showing considerable improvements on diverse prediction problems from climate and public health datasets that contain tens to hundreds of thousands of measurements. The paper is accompanied with an open-source software package (https://github.com/google/bayesnf) that is easy-to-use and compatible with modern GPU and TPU accelerators on the JAX machine learning platform.

Dengue fever is one of the most deadly mosquito-born tropical infectious diseases. Detailed long range forecast model is vital in controlling the spread of disease and making mitigation efforts. In this study, we examine methods used to forecast dengue cases for long range predictions. The dataset consists of local climate/weather in addition to global climate indicators of Singapore from 2000 to 2019. We utilize newly developed deep neural networks to learn the intricate relationship between the features. The baseline models in this study are in the class of recent transformers for long sequence forecasting tasks. We found that a Fourier mixed window attention (FWin) based transformer performed the best in terms of both the mean square error and the maximum absolute error on the long range dengue forecast up to 60 weeks.

Given trajectories with gaps (i.e., missing data), we investigate algorithms to identify abnormal gaps in trajectories which occur when a given moving object did not report its location, but other moving objects in the same geographic region periodically did. The problem is important due to its societal applications, such as improving maritime safety and regulatory enforcement for global security concerns such as illegal fishing, illegal oil transfers, and trans-shipments. The problem is challenging due to the difficulty of bounding the possible locations of the moving object during a trajectory gap, and the very high computational cost of detecting gaps in such a large volume of location data. The current literature on anomalous trajectory detection assumes linear interpolation within gaps, which may not be able to detect abnormal gaps since objects within a given region may have traveled away from their shortest path. In preliminary work, we introduced an abnormal gap measure that uses a classical space-time prism model to bound an object's possible movement during the trajectory gap and provided a scalable memoized gap detection algorithm (Memo-AGD). In this paper, we propose a Space Time-Aware Gap Detection (STAGD) approach to leverage space-time indexing and merging of trajectory gaps. We also incorporate a Dynamic Region Merge-based (DRM) approach to efficiently compute gap abnormality scores. We provide theoretical proofs that both algorithms are correct and complete and also provide analysis of asymptotic time complexity. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world maritime trajectory data show that the proposed approach substantially improves computation time over the baseline technique.

Intent classifiers must be able to distinguish when a user's utterance does not belong to any supported intent to avoid producing incorrect and unrelated system responses. Although out-of-scope (OOS) detection for intent classifiers has been studied, previous work has not yet studied changes in classifier performance against hard-negative out-of-scope utterances (i.e., inputs that share common features with in-scope data, but are actually out-of-scope). We present an automated technique to generate hard-negative OOS data using ChatGPT. We use our technique to build five new hard-negative OOS datasets, and evaluate each against three benchmark intent classifiers. We show that classifiers struggle to correctly identify hard-negative OOS utterances more than general OOS utterances. Finally, we show that incorporating hard-negative OOS data for training improves model robustness when detecting hard-negative OOS data and general OOS data. Our technique, datasets, and evaluation address an important void in the field, offering a straightforward and inexpensive way to collect hard-negative OOS data and improve intent classifiers' robustness.

Sentence simplification, which rewrites a sentence to be easier to read and understand, is a promising technique to help people with various reading difficulties. With the rise of advanced large language models (LLMs), evaluating their performance in sentence simplification has become imperative. Recent studies have used both automatic metrics and human evaluations to assess the simplification abilities of LLMs. However, the suitability of existing evaluation methodologies for LLMs remains in question. First, the suitability of current automatic metrics on LLMs' simplification evaluation is still uncertain. Second, current human evaluation approaches in sentence simplification often fall into two extremes: they are either too superficial, failing to offer a clear understanding of the models' performance, or overly detailed, making the annotation process complex and prone to inconsistency, which in turn affects the evaluation's reliability. To address these problems, this study provides in-depth insights into LLMs' performance while ensuring the reliability of the evaluation. We design an error-based human annotation framework to assess the GPT-4's simplification capabilities. Results show that GPT-4 generally generates fewer erroneous simplification outputs compared to the current state-of-the-art. However, LLMs have their limitations, as seen in GPT-4's struggles with lexical paraphrasing. Furthermore, we conduct meta-evaluations on widely used automatic metrics using our human annotations. We find that while these metrics are effective for significant quality differences, they lack sufficient sensitivity to assess the overall high-quality simplification by GPT-4.

Physics simulation results of natural processes usually do not fully capture the real world. This is caused for instance by limits in what physical processes are simulated and to what accuracy. In this work we propose and analyze the use of an LSTM-based deep learning network machine learning (ML) architecture for capturing and predicting the behavior of the systemic error for storm surge forecast models with respect to real-world water height observations from gauge stations during hurricane events. The overall goal of this work is to predict the systemic error of the physics model and use it to improve the accuracy of the simulation results post factum. We trained our proposed ML model on a dataset of 61 historical storms in the coastal regions of the U.S. and we tested its performance in bias correcting modeled water level data predictions from hurricane Ian (2022). We show that our model can consistently improve the forecasting accuracy for hurricane Ian -- unknown to the ML model -- at all gauge station coordinates used for the initial data. Moreover, by examining the impact of using different subsets of the initial training dataset, containing a number of relatively similar or different hurricanes in terms of hurricane track, we found that we can obtain similar quality of bias correction by only using a subset of six hurricanes. This is an important result that implies the possibility to apply a pre-trained ML model to real-time hurricane forecasting results with the goal of bias correcting and improving the produced simulation accuracy. The presented work is an important first step in creating a bias correction system for real-time storm surge forecasting applicable to the full simulation area. It also presents a highly transferable and operationally applicable methodology for improving the accuracy in a wide range of physics simulation scenarios beyond storm surge forecasting.

The voluminous nature of geospatial temporal data from physical monitors and simulation models poses challenges to efficient data access, often resulting in cumbersome temporal selection experiences in web-based data portals. Thus, selecting a subset of time steps for prioritized visualization and pre-loading is highly desirable. Addressing this issue, this paper establishes a multifaceted definition of salient time steps via extensive need-finding studies with domain experts to understand their workflows. Building on this, we propose a novel approach that leverages autoencoders and dynamic programming to facilitate user-driven temporal selections. Structural features, statistical variations, and distance penalties are incorporated to make more flexible selections. User-specified priorities, spatial regions, and aggregations are used to combine different perspectives. We design and implement a web-based interface to enable efficient and context-aware selection of time steps and evaluate its efficacy and usability through case studies, quantitative evaluations, and expert interviews.

Real-time flood forecasting plays a crucial role in enabling timely and effective emergency responses. However, a significant challenge lies in bridging the gap between complex numerical flood models and practical decision-making. Decision-makers often rely on experts to interpret these models for optimizing flood mitigation strategies. And the public requires complex techniques to inquiry and understand socio-cultural and institutional factors, often hinders the public's understanding of flood risks. To overcome these challenges, our study introduces an innovative solution: a customized AI Assistant powered by the GPT-4 Large Language Model. This AI Assistant is designed to facilitate effective communication between decision-makers, the general public, and flood forecasters, without the requirement of specialized knowledge. The new framework utilizes GPT-4's advanced natural language understanding and function calling capabilities to provide immediate flood alerts and respond to various flood-related inquiries. Our developed prototype integrates real-time flood warnings with flood maps and social vulnerability data. It also effectively translates complex flood zone information into actionable risk management advice. To assess its performance, we evaluated the prototype using six criteria within three main categories: relevance, error resilience, and understanding of context. Our research marks a significant step towards a more accessible and user-friendly approach in flood risk management. This study highlights the potential of advanced AI tools like GPT-4 in democratizing information and enhancing public engagement in critical social and environmental issues.

On February 22nd, a robotic lander named Odysseus touched down on the sun-washed highlands near the south pole of the moon. It was the first time since the Apollo 17 mission, fifty-two years ago, that an American spacecraft had gracefully landed on the lunar surface. And yet NASA hadn't designed or built Odysseus; it was renting space onboard. Intuitive Machines, a relatively small aerospace firm based in Houston, was responsible for the lander, which launched atop a SpaceX rocket. The event was historic not just because it signalled a return to the moon but because it was the first time that a private company from any country had landed a spacecraft there.