Spatiotemporal time series is the foundation of understanding human activities and their impacts, which is usually collected via monitoring sensors placed at different locations. The collected data usually contains missing values due to various failures, which have significant impact on data analysis. To impute the missing values, a lot of methods have been introduced. When recovering a specific data point, most existing methods tend to take into consideration all the information relevant to that point regardless of whether they have a cause-and-effect relationship. During data collection, it is inevitable that some unknown confounders are included, e.g., background noise in time series and non-causal shortcut edges in the constructed sensor network. These confounders could open backdoor paths between the input and output, in other words, they establish non-causal correlations between the input and output. Over-exploiting these non-causal correlations could result in overfitting and make the model vulnerable to noises. In this paper, we first revisit spatiotemporal time series imputation from a causal perspective, which shows the causal relationships among the input, output, embeddings and confounders. Next, we show how to block the confounders via the frontdoor adjustment. Based on the results of the frontdoor adjustment, we introduce a novel Causality-Aware SPatiotEmpoRal graph neural network (CASPER), which contains a novel Spatiotemporal Causal Attention (SCA) and a Prompt Based Decoder (PBD). PBD could reduce the impact of confounders and SCA could discover the sparse causal relationships among embeddings. Theoretical analysis reveals that SCA discovers causal relationships based on the values of gradients. We evaluate Casper on three real-world datasets, and the experimental results show that Casper outperforms the baselines and effectively discovers causal relationships.

This paper studies privacy preserving M-estimators using perturbed histograms. The proposed approach allows the release of a wide class of M-estimators with both differential privacy and statistical utility without knowing a priori the particular inference procedure. The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated through a careful study of the convergence rates. A practical algorithm is given and applied on a real world data set containing both continuous and categorical variables.

In recent years, atmospheric research has received increasing attention from environmental experts and the public because atmospheric phenomena such as El Nino, global warming, ozone depletion, and drought that may have negative effects on the Earth's climate and ecosystem are occurring more often (Walther et al. 2002; Karl and Trenberth 2003; Trenberth et al. 2014). In order to model the status quo and predict the trend of atmospheric phenomena and events, researchers need to retrieve data from various relevant domains, such as chemical components of aerosols and gases, the terrestrial surface, energy consumption, the hydrosphere, the biosphere, etc. (Schneider, 2006; Fowler et al., 2009; Guilyardi et al, 2009; Ramanathan et al., 2011; Katul et al., 2012). In complex earth system modeling, the data and services for atmospheric study present the characteristics of being distributed, collaborative and adaptive (Plale et al., 2006). The massive volume, rapid velocity and wide variety of data has led to a new era of atmospheric research that consists of accessing and integrating big data from distributed sources, conducting collaborative analysis in an interactive way, providing intelligent services for data management, and integration and visualization to foster discovery of hidden or new knowledge. One of the most important ways to support these activities is to establish a national or international spatial data infrastructure and geospatial cyberinfrastructure on which the data and computational resources can be easily shared, the spatial analysis tool can be executed on-the-fly and the scientific results can be effectively visualized (Yang et al., 2008; Li et al., 2011). Technically, a geospatial cyberinfrastructure (GCI) is an architecture that effectively utilizes geo-referenced data to connect people, information and computers based on the standardized data access protocols, high speed internet, high-performance computing facilities (HPC) and service-oriented data management (Yang et al., 2010). Since the concept's official introduction by the National Science Foundation (NSF) in its 2003 blue ribbon report, cyberinfrastructure research has attracted much attention from the atmospheric science domain because of its promise of bringing paradigm change for

In previous models, there was a predominant use of the Channel Dependence (CD) strategy (where each channel represents a univariate sequence). Current state-of-the-art (SOTA) models primarily rely on the Channel Independence (CI) strategy. The CI strategy treats all channels as a single channel, expanding the dataset to improve generalization performance and avoiding inter-channel correlation that disrupts long-term features. However, the CI strategy faces the challenge of interchannel correlation forgetting. To address this issue, we propose an innovative Mixed Channels strategy, combining the data expansion advantages of the CI strategy with the ability to counteract inter-channel correlation forgetting. Based on this strategy, we introduce MCformer, a multivariate time-series forecasting model with mixed channel features. The model blends a specific number of channels, leveraging an attention mechanism to effectively capture inter-channel correlation information when modeling long-term features. Experimental results demonstrate that the Mixed Channels strategy outperforms pure CI strategy in multivariate time-series forecasting tasks.

The driver in the Chevy Suburban seemed bent on testing the Waymo robotaxi on the streets of downtown L.A. this week. Playing chicken against Silicon Valley's wheeled robot, he sharply swung into the next lane toward the Waymo. The white driverless Jaguar swerved to avoid the bigger car crossing the line and striking it. The human driver sped then ahead of the robotaxi and braked abruptly in front of it. The machine slowed in time to avoid a collision, shifted into the next lane and the Chevy moved on, ending a brief yet anxiety inducing interaction for a Los Angeles Times reporter and photographer riding in the Waymo vehicle.

Accurate and efficient analysis of multivariate spatio-temporal data is critical in climatology, geology, and sociology applications. Existing models usually assume simple inter-dependence among variables, space, and time, and are computationally expensive. We propose a unified low rank tensor learning framework for multivariate spatio-temporal analysis, which can conveniently incorporate different properties in spatio-temporal data, such as spatial clustering and shared structure among variables. We demonstrate how the general framework can be applied to cokriging and forecasting tasks, and develop an efficient greedy algorithm to solve the resulting optimization problem with convergence guarantee. We conduct experiments on both synthetic datasets and real application datasets to demonstrate that our method is not only significantly faster than existing methods but also achieves lower estimation error.

Crowdsourcing has gained immense popularity in machine learning applications for obtaining large amounts of labeled data. Crowdsourcing is cheap and fast, but suffers from the problem of low-quality data. To address this fundamental challenge in crowdsourcing, we propose a simple payment mechanism to incentivize workers to answer only the questions that they are sure of and skip the rest. We show that surprisingly, under a mild and natural "no-free-lunch" requirement, this mechanism is the one and only incentive-compatible payment mechanism possible. We also show that among all possible incentive-compatible mechanisms (that may or may not satisfy no-free-lunch), our mechanism makes the smallest possible payment to spammers. Interestingly, this unique mechanism takes a "multiplicative" form. The simplicity of the mechanism is an added benefit. In preliminary experiments involving over several hundred workers, we observe a significant reduction in the error rates under our unique mechanism for the same or lower monetary expenditure.

As datasets capturing human choices grow in richness and scale--particularly in online domains--there is an increasing need for choice models that escape traditional choice-theoretic axioms such as regularity, stochastic transitivity, and Luce's choice axiom. In this work we introduce the Pairwise Choice Markov Chain (PCMC) model of discrete choice, an inferentially tractable model that does not assume any of the above axioms while still satisfying the foundational axiom of uniform expansion, a considerably weaker assumption than Luce's choice axiom. We show that the PCMC model significantly outperforms both the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model and a mixed MNL (MMNL) model in prediction tasks on both synthetic and empirical datasets known to exhibit violations of Luce's axiom. Our analysis also synthesizes several recent observations connecting the Multinomial Logit model and Markov chains; the PCMC model retains the Multinomial Logit model as a special case.

Spatiotemporal datasets, which consist of spatially-referenced time series, are ubiquitous in many scientific and business-intelligence applications, such as air pollution monitoring, disease tracking, and cloud-demand forecasting. As modern datasets continue to increase in size and complexity, there is a growing need for new statistical methods that are flexible enough to capture complex spatiotemporal dynamics and scalable enough to handle large prediction problems. This work presents the Bayesian Neural Field (BayesNF), a domain-general statistical model for inferring rich probability distributions over a spatiotemporal domain, which can be used for data-analysis tasks including forecasting, interpolation, and variography. BayesNF integrates a novel deep neural network architecture for high-capacity function estimation with hierarchical Bayesian inference for robust uncertainty quantification. By defining the prior through a sequence of smooth differentiable transforms, posterior inference is conducted on large-scale data using variationally learned surrogates trained via stochastic gradient descent. We evaluate BayesNF against prominent statistical and machine-learning baselines, showing considerable improvements on diverse prediction problems from climate and public health datasets that contain tens to hundreds of thousands of measurements. The paper is accompanied with an open-source software package (https://github.com/google/bayesnf) that is easy-to-use and compatible with modern GPU and TPU accelerators on the JAX machine learning platform.

Dengue fever is one of the most deadly mosquito-born tropical infectious diseases. Detailed long range forecast model is vital in controlling the spread of disease and making mitigation efforts. In this study, we examine methods used to forecast dengue cases for long range predictions. The dataset consists of local climate/weather in addition to global climate indicators of Singapore from 2000 to 2019. We utilize newly developed deep neural networks to learn the intricate relationship between the features. The baseline models in this study are in the class of recent transformers for long sequence forecasting tasks. We found that a Fourier mixed window attention (FWin) based transformer performed the best in terms of both the mean square error and the maximum absolute error on the long range dengue forecast up to 60 weeks.