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Multiscale spatiotemporal heterogeneity analysis of bike-sharing system's self-loop phenomenon: Evidence from Shanghai

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Bike-sharing is an environmentally friendly shared mobility mode, but its self-loop phenomenon, where bikes are returned to the same station after several time usage, significantly impacts equity in accessing its services. Therefore, this study conducts a multiscale analysis with a spatial autoregressive model and double machine learning framework to assess socioeconomic features and geospatial location's impact on the self-loop phenomenon at metro stations and street scales. The results reveal that bike-sharing self-loop intensity exhibits significant spatial lag effect at street scale and is positively associated with residential land use. Marginal treatment effects of residential land use is higher on streets with middle-aged residents, high fixed employment, and low car ownership. The multimodal public transit condition reveals significant positive marginal treatment effects at both scales. To enhance bike-sharing cooperation, we advocate augmenting bicycle availability in areas with high metro usage and low bus coverage, alongside implementing adaptable redistribution strategies.


Tracking Progress Towards Sustainable Development Goal 6 Using Satellite Imagery

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Clean water and sanitation are essential for health, well-being, and sustainable development, yet significant global disparities remain. Although the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 6 has clear targets for universal access to clean water and sanitation, data coverage and openness remain obstacles for tracking progress in many countries. Nontraditional data sources are needed to fill this gap. This study incorporated Afrobarometer survey data, satellite imagery (Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2), and deep learning techniques (Meta's DINO model) to develop a modelling framework for evaluating access to piped water and sewage systems across diverse African regions. The modelling framework demonstrated high accuracy, achieving over 96% and 97% accuracy in identifying areas with piped water access and sewage system access respectively using satellite imagery. It can serve as a screening tool for policymakers and stakeholders to potentially identify regions for more targeted and prioritized efforts to improve water and sanitation infrastructure. When coupled with spatial population data, the modelling framework can also estimate and track the national-level percentages of the population with access to piped water and sewage systems. In the future, this approach could potentially be extended to evaluate other SDGs, particularly those related to critical infrastructure.


NeuroAI for AI Safety

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As AI systems become increasingly powerful, the need for safe AI has become more pressing. Humans are an attractive model for AI safety: as the only known agents capable of general intelligence, they perform robustly even under conditions that deviate significantly from prior experiences, explore the world safely, understand pragmatics, and can cooperate to meet their intrinsic goals. Intelligence, when coupled with cooperation and safety mechanisms, can drive sustained progress and well-being. These properties are a function of the architecture of the brain and the learning algorithms it implements. Neuroscience may thus hold important keys to technical AI safety that are currently underexplored and underutilized. In this roadmap, we highlight and critically evaluate several paths toward AI safety inspired by neuroscience: emulating the brain's representations, information processing, and architecture; building robust sensory and motor systems from imitating brain data and bodies; fine-tuning AI systems on brain data; advancing interpretability using neuroscience methods; and scaling up cognitively-inspired architectures. We make several concrete recommendations for how neuroscience can positively impact AI safety.


Improved implicit diffusion model with knowledge distillation to estimate the spatial distribution density of carbon stock in remote sensing imagery

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The forest serves as the most significant terrestrial carbon stock mechanism, effectively reducing atmospheric CO$_2$ concentrations and mitigating climate change. Remote sensing provides high data accuracy and enables large-scale observations. Optical images facilitate long-term monitoring, which is crucial for future carbon stock estimation studies. This study focuses on Huize County, Qujing City, Yunnan Province, China, utilizing GF-1 WFV satellite imagery. The KD-VGG and KD-UNet modules were introduced for initial feature extraction, and the improved implicit diffusion model (IIDM) was proposed. The results showed: (1) The VGG module improved initial feature extraction, improving accuracy, and reducing inference time with optimized model parameters. (2) The Cross-attention + MLPs module enabled effective feature fusion, establishing critical relationships between global and local features, achieving high-accuracy estimation. (3) The IIDM model, a novel contribution, demonstrated the highest estimation accuracy with an RMSE of 12.17\%, significantly improving by 41.69\% to 42.33\% compared to the regression model. In carbon stock estimation, the generative model excelled in extracting deeper features, significantly outperforming other models, demonstrating the feasibility of AI-generated content in quantitative remote sensing. The 16-meter resolution estimates provide a robust basis for tailoring forest carbon sink regulations, enhancing regional carbon stock management.


FoundTS: Comprehensive and Unified Benchmarking of Foundation Models for Time Series Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is key functionality in numerous fields, including in finance, weather services, and energy management. While TSF methods are emerging these days, many of them require domain-specific data collection and model training and struggle with poor generalization performance on new domains. Foundation models aim to overcome this limitation. Pre-trained on large-scale language or time series data, they exhibit promising inferencing capabilities in new or unseen data. This has spurred a surge in new TSF foundation models. We propose a new benchmark, FoundTS, to enable thorough and fair evaluation and comparison of such models. FoundTS covers a variety of TSF foundation models, including those based on large language models and those pretrained on time series. Next, FoundTS supports different forecasting strategies, including zero-shot, few-shot, and full-shot, thereby facilitating more thorough evaluations. Finally, FoundTS offers a pipeline that standardizes evaluation processes such as dataset splitting, loading, normalization, and few-shot sampling, thereby facilitating fair evaluations. Building on this, we report on an extensive evaluation of TSF foundation models on a broad range of datasets from diverse domains and with different statistical characteristics. Specifically, we identify pros and cons and inherent limitations of existing foundation models, and we identify directions for future model design. We make our code and datasets available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/FoundTS-C2B0.


Augmenting Multimodal LLMs with Self-Reflective Tokens for Knowledge-based Visual Question Answering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) are the natural extension of large language models to handle multimodal inputs, combining text and image data. They have recently garnered attention due to their capability to address complex tasks involving both modalities. However, their effectiveness is limited to the knowledge acquired during training, which restricts their practical utility. In this work, we introduce a novel method to enhance the adaptability of MLLMs by integrating external knowledge sources. Our proposed model, Reflective LLaVA (ReflectiVA), utilizes reflective tokens to dynamically determine the need for external knowledge and predict the relevance of information retrieved from an external database. Tokens are trained following a two-stage two-model training recipe. This ultimately enables the MLLM to manage external knowledge while preserving fluency and performance on tasks where external knowledge is not needed. Through our experiments, we demonstrate the efficacy of ReflectiVA for knowledge-based visual question answering, highlighting its superior performance compared to existing methods. Source code and trained models are publicly available at https://github.com/aimagelab/ReflectiVA.


Analysis of Fukushima debris sample could take a year, operator says

The Japan Times

It will take six months to a year to analyze a tiny sample of radioactive debris retrieved by a robot from Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings' crippled Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant, its operator said Thursday. The analysis could shed light on radioactivity levels and the chemical structure of the fuel debris -- a key part of preparation for the decadeslong decommissioning process. Around 880 tons of hazardous material remain at the Fukushima plant, more than 13 years after a tsunami caused by an earthquake triggered one of the world's worst nuclear incidents. Last week, the sample, weighing just below 0.7 gram -- equivalent to about one raisin -- was delivered to a research lab near Tokyo for analysis. It had been removed from a reactor by an extendible robotic device in a tricky operation suspended several times by technical problems.


Introducing Spectral Attention for Long-Range Dependency in Time Series Forecasting

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Sequence modeling faces challenges in capturing long-range dependencies across diverse tasks. Recent linear and transformer-based forecasters have shown superior performance in time series forecasting. However, they are constrained by their inherent inability to effectively address long-range dependencies in time series data, primarily due to using fixed-size inputs for prediction. Furthermore, they typically sacrifice essential temporal correlation among consecutive training samples by shuffling them into mini-batches. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a fast and effective Spectral Attention mechanism, which preserves temporal correlations among samples and facilitates the handling of long-range information while maintaining the base model structure. Spectral Attention preserves long-period trends through a low-pass filter and facilitates gradient to flow between samples. Spectral Attention can be seamlessly integrated into most sequence models, allowing models with fixed-sized look-back windows to capture long-range dependencies over thousands of steps. Through extensive experiments on 11 real-world time series datasets using 7 recent forecasting models, we consistently demonstrate the efficacy of our Spectral Attention mechanism, achieving state-of-the-art results.


Forecasting Future International Events: A Reliable Dataset for Text-Based Event Modeling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predicting future international events from textual information, such as news articles, has tremendous potential for applications in global policy, strategic decision-making, and geopolitics. However, existing datasets available for this task are often limited in quality, hindering the progress of related research. In this paper, we introduce WORLDREP (WORLD Relationship and Event Prediction), a novel dataset designed to address these limitations by leveraging the advanced reasoning capabilities of large-language models (LLMs). Our dataset features high-quality scoring labels generated through advanced prompt modeling and rigorously validated by domain experts in political science. We showcase the quality and utility of WORLDREP for real-world event prediction tasks, demonstrating its effectiveness through extensive experiments and analysis. Furthermore, we publicly release our dataset along with the full automation source code for data collection, labeling, and benchmarking, aiming to support and advance research in text-based event prediction.


Regional Ocean Forecasting with Hierarchical Graph Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate ocean forecasting systems are vital for understanding marine dynamics, which play a crucial role in environmental management and climate adaptation strategies. Traditional numerical solvers, while effective, are computationally expensive and time-consuming. Recent advancements in machine learning have revolutionized weather forecasting, offering fast and energy-efficient alternatives. Building on these advancements, we introduce SeaCast, a neural network designed for high-resolution, medium-range ocean forecasting. SeaCast employs a graph-based framework to effectively handle the complex geometry of ocean grids and integrates external forcing data tailored to the regional ocean context. Our approach is validated through experiments at a high spatial resolution using the operational numerical model of the Mediterranean Sea provided by the Copernicus Marine Service, along with both numerical and data-driven atmospheric forcings.