Webpages have been a rich, scalable resource for vision-language and language only tasks. Yet only pieces of webpages are kept in existing datasets: image-caption pairs, long text articles, or raw HTML, never all in one place. Webpage tasks have resultingly received little attention and structured image-text data left underused. To study multimodal webpage understanding, we introduce the Wikipedia Webpage suite (WikiWeb2M) containing 2M pages with all of the associated image, text, and structure data. We verify its utility on three generative tasks: page description generation, section summarization, and contextual image captioning. We design a novel attention mechanism Prefix Global, which selects the most relevant image and text content as global tokens to attend to the rest of the webpage for context. By using page structure to separate such tokens, it performs better than full attention with lower computational complexity. Extensive experiments show that the new data in WikiWeb2M improves task performance compared to prior work.

Knowledge graph completion (KGC) aims to discover missing relations of query entities. Current text-based models utilize the entity name and description to infer the tail entity given the head entity and a certain relation. Existing approaches also consider the neighborhood of the head entity. However, these methods tend to model the neighborhood using a flat structure and are only restricted to 1-hop neighbors. In this work, we propose a node neighborhood-enhanced framework for knowledge graph completion. It models the head entity neighborhood from multiple hops using graph neural networks to enrich the head node information. Moreover, we introduce an additional edge link prediction task to improve KGC. Evaluation on two public datasets shows that this framework is simple yet effective. The case study also shows that the model is able to predict explainable predictions.

We introduce Bongard-OpenWorld, a new benchmark for evaluating real-world few-shot reasoning for machine vision. It originates from the classical Bongard Problems (BPs): Given two sets of images (positive and negative), the model needs to identify the set that query images belong to by inducing the visual concepts, which is exclusively depicted by images from the positive set. Our benchmark inherits the few-shot concept induction of the original BPs while adding the two novel layers of challenge: 1) open-world free-form concepts, as the visual concepts in Bongard-OpenWorld are unique compositions of terms from an open vocabulary, ranging from object categories to abstract visual attributes and commonsense factual knowledge; 2) real-world images, as opposed to the synthetic diagrams used by many counterparts. In our exploration, Bongard-OpenWorld already imposes a significant challenge to current few-shot reasoning algorithms. We further investigate to which extent the recently introduced Large Language Models (LLMs) and Vision-Language Models (VLMs) can solve our task, by directly probing VLMs, and combining VLMs and LLMs in an interactive reasoning scheme. We even designed a neuro-symbolic reasoning approach that reconciles LLMs & VLMs with logical reasoning to emulate the human problem-solving process for Bongard Problems. However, none of these approaches manage to close the human-machine gap, as the best learner achieves 64% accuracy while human participants easily reach 91%. We hope Bongard-OpenWorld can help us better understand the limitations of current visual intelligence and facilitate future research on visual agents with stronger few-shot visual reasoning capabilities.

As one of the most exciting features of large language models (LLMs), in-context learning is a mixed blessing. While it allows users to fast-prototype a task solver with only a few training examples, the performance is generally sensitive to various configurations of the prompt such as the choice or order of the training examples. In this paper, we for the first time theoretically and empirically identify that such a paradox is mainly due to the label shift of the in-context model to the data distribution, in which LLMs shift the label marginal $p(y)$ while having a good label conditional $p(x|y)$. With this understanding, we can simply calibrate the in-context predictive distribution by adjusting the label marginal, which is estimated via Monte-Carlo sampling over the in-context model, i.e., generation of LLMs. We call our approach as generative calibration. We conduct exhaustive experiments with 12 text classification tasks and 12 LLMs scaling from 774M to 33B, generally find that the proposed method greatly and consistently outperforms the ICL as well as state-of-the-art calibration methods, by up to 27% absolute in macro-F1. Meanwhile, the proposed method is also stable under different prompt configurations.

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is important for various domains but is confronted by challenges in handling the complex temporal-contextual relationships. As multivariate input models underperforming some recent univariate counterparts, we posit that the issue lies in the inefficiency of existing multivariate LTSF Transformers to model series-wise relationships: the characteristic differences between series are often captured incorrectly. To address this, we introduce ARM: a multivariate temporal-contextual adaptive learning method, which is an enhanced architecture specifically designed for multivariate LTSF modelling. ARM employs Adaptive Univariate Effect Learning (AUEL), Random Dropping (RD) training strategy, and Multi-kernel Local Smoothing (MKLS), to better handle individual series temporal patterns and correctly learn inter-series dependencies. ARM demonstrates superior performance on multiple benchmarks without significantly increasing computational costs compared to vanilla Transformer, thereby advancing the state-of-the-art in LTSF. ARM is also generally applicable to other LTSF architecture beyond vanilla Transformer.

We introduce a novel modeling approach for time series imputation and forecasting, tailored to address the challenges often encountered in real-world data, such as irregular samples, missing data, or unaligned measurements from multiple sensors. Our method relies on a continuous-time-dependent model of the series' evolution dynamics. It leverages adaptations of conditional, implicit neural representations for sequential data. A modulation mechanism, driven by a meta-learning algorithm, allows adaptation to unseen samples and extrapolation beyond observed time-windows for long-term predictions. The model provides a highly flexible and unified framework for imputation and forecasting tasks across a wide range of challenging scenarios. It achieves state-of-the-art performance on classical benchmarks and outperforms alternative time-continuous models.

We consider the online planning problem for a team of agents to discover and track an unknown and time-varying number of moving objects from onboard sensor measurements with uncertain measurement-object origins. Since the onboard sensors have a limited field-of-view, the usual planning strategy based solely on either tracking detected objects or discovering unseen objects is inadequate. To address this, we formulate a new information-based multi-objective multi-agent control problem, cast as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). The resulting multi-agent planning problem is exponentially complex due to the unknown data association between objects and multi-sensor measurements; hence, computing an optimal control action is intractable. We prove that the proposed multi-objective value function is a monotone submodular set function, which admits low-cost suboptimal solutions via greedy search with a tight optimality bound. The resulting planning algorithm has a linear complexity in the number of objects and measurements across the sensors, and quadratic in the number of agents. We demonstrate the proposed solution via a series of numerical experiments with a real-world dataset.

While diffusion models can successfully generate data and make predictions, they are predominantly designed for static images. We propose an approach for efficiently training diffusion models for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting, where generating stable and accurate rollout forecasts remains challenging, Our method, DYffusion, leverages the temporal dynamics in the data, directly coupling it with the diffusion steps in the model. We train a stochastic, time-conditioned interpolator and a forecaster network that mimic the forward and reverse processes of standard diffusion models, respectively. DYffusion naturally facilitates multi-step and long-range forecasting, allowing for highly flexible, continuous-time sampling trajectories and the ability to trade-off performance with accelerated sampling at inference time. In addition, the dynamics-informed diffusion process in DYffusion imposes a strong inductive bias and significantly improves computational efficiency compared to traditional Gaussian noise-based diffusion models. Our approach performs competitively on probabilistic forecasting of complex dynamics in sea surface temperatures, Navier-Stokes flows, and spring mesh systems.

Senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute Gordon Chang joined'Cavuto Live' to discuss the U.S.'s relationship with China amid the highly anticipated G20 Summit. Emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) should be used as "tools of opportunity, not as weapons of oppression," President Biden remarked recently. But this exhortation makes his subsequent vow to work directly with "our competitors" to harness the power of AI "for good" all the more curious. Working with our competitors, like China, would only empower the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to write the rules of the road for AI. And we don't want China in the driver's seat.

Modern time series data often display complex nonlinear dependencies along with irregular regime-switching behaviors. These features present technical challenges in modeling, inference, and in offering insightful understanding into the underlying stochastic phenomena. To tackle these challenges, we introduce a novel modeling framework known as the Deep Switching State Space Model (DS$^3$M). This framework is engineered to make accurate forecasts for such time series while adeptly identifying the irregular regimes hidden within the dynamics. These identifications not only have significant economic ramifications but also contribute to a deeper understanding of the underlying phenomena. In DS$^3$M, the architecture employs discrete latent variables to represent regimes and continuous latent variables to account for random driving factors. By melding a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) with a nonlinear Switching State Space Model (SSSM), we manage to capture the nonlinear dependencies and irregular regime-switching behaviors, governed by a Markov chain and parameterized using multilayer perceptrons. We validate the effectiveness and regime identification capabilities of DS$^3$M through short- and long-term forecasting tests on a wide array of simulated and real-world datasets, spanning sectors such as healthcare, economics, traffic, meteorology, and energy. Experimental results reveal that DS$^3$M outperforms several state-of-the-art models in terms of forecasting accuracy, while providing meaningful regime identifications.