Despite having triggered devastating pandemics in the past, our ability to quantitatively assess the emergence potential of individual strains of animal influenza viruses remains limited. This study introduces Emergenet, a tool to infer a digital twin of sequence evolution to chart how new variants might emerge in the wild. Our predictions based on Emergenets built only using 220,151 Hemagglutinnin (HA) sequences consistently outperform WHO seasonal vaccine recommendations for H1N1/H3N2 subtypes over two decades (average match-improvement: 3.73 AAs, 28.40\%), and are at par with state-of-the-art approaches that use more detailed phenotypic annotations. Finally, our generative models are used to scalably calculate the current odds of emergence of animal strains not yet in human circulation, which strongly correlates with CDC's expert-assessed Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) scores (Pearson's $r = 0.721, p = 10^{-4}$). A minimum five orders of magnitude speedup over CDC's assessment (seconds vs months) then enabled us to analyze 6,354 animal strains collected post-2020 to identify 35 strains with high emergence scores ($> 7.7$). The Emergenet framework opens the door to preemptive pandemic mitigation through targeted inoculation of animal hosts before the first human infection.

PAC-Bayes learning is a comprehensive setting for (i) studying the generalisation ability of learning algorithms and (ii) deriving new learning algorithms by optimising a generalisation bound. However, optimising generalisation bounds might not always be viable for tractable or computational reasons, or both. For example, iteratively querying the empirical risk might prove computationally expensive. In response, we introduce a novel principled strategy for building an iterative learning algorithm via the optimisation of a sequence of surrogate training objectives, inherited from PAC-Bayes generalisation bounds. The key argument is to replace the empirical risk (seen as a function of hypotheses) in the generalisation bound by its projection onto a constructible low dimensional functional space: these projections can be queried much more efficiently than the initial risk. On top of providing that generic recipe for learning via surrogate PAC-Bayes bounds, we (i) contribute theoretical results establishing that iteratively optimising our surrogates implies the optimisation of the original generalisation bounds, (ii) instantiate this strategy to the framework of meta-learning, introducing a meta-objective offering a closed form expression for meta-gradient, (iii) illustrate our approach with numerical experiments inspired by an industrial biochemical problem.

Countless flowing green wigs risked spontaneous combustion on a 36-degree Melbourne evening as thousands of J-pop fans queued outside John Cain Arena on Friday night. But the heat was irrelevant to the night's headline pop attraction, Hatsune Miku. Miku, as she's known to fans, is a 157cm-tall avatar of a teenage girl with green pigtails. She represents a digital bank of vocal samples created by the ominous-sounding Crypton Future Media using Yamaha's Vocaloid voice synthesiser technology. Users input lyrics and melodies which are "sung" by the bank's sampled voice (Hatsune Miku is voiced by the actor Saki Fujita); some Vocaloid producers "tune" the software to be especially convincing, while others embrace its artificiality.

Meta will make its generative artificial intelligence (AI) models available to the United States' government, the tech giant has announced, in a controversial move that raises a moral dilemma for everyone who uses the software. Meta last week revealed it would make the models, known as Llama, available to government agencies, "including those that are working on defence and national security applications, and private sector partners supporting their work". The decision appears to contravene Meta's own policy which lists a range of prohibited uses for Llama, including "[m]ilitary, warfare, nuclear industries or applications" as well as espionage, terrorism, human trafficking and exploitation or harm to children. Meta's exception also reportedly applies to similar national security agencies in the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. It came just three days after Reuters revealed China has reworked Llama for its own military purposes.

Background-oriented Schlieren tomography (BOST) is a prevalent method for visualizing intricate turbulent flows, valued for its ease of implementation and capacity to capture three-dimensional distributions of a multitude of flow parameters. However, the voxel-based meshing scheme leads to significant challenges, such as inadequate spatial resolution, substantial discretization errors, poor noise immunity, and excessive computational costs. This work presents an innovative reconstruction approach termed neural refractive index field (NeRIF) which implicitly represents the flow field with a neural network, which is trained with tailored strategies. Both numerical simulations and experimental demonstrations on turbulent Bunsen flames suggest that our approach can significantly improve the reconstruction accuracy and spatial resolution while concurrently reducing computational expenses. Although showcased in the context of background-oriented schlieren tomography here, the key idea embedded in the NeRIF can be readily adapted to various other tomographic modalities including tomographic absorption spectroscopy and tomographic particle imaging velocimetry, broadening its potential impact across different domains of flow visualization and analysis.

Pretrained large Language Models (LLMs) are able to answer questions that are unlikely to have been encountered during training. However a diversity of potential applications exist in the broad domain of reasoning systems and considerations such as latency, cost, available compute resource and internet connectivity are relevant in determining an appropriate approach. We consider the setting where some local compute capacity is available at inference time but internet connectivity is not. Similar to a general-purpose LLM, we assume that our much smaller Reasoning Models may be asked arbitrary questions from unknown distributions, so we focus on evaluation in an unseen setting. We train our models to answer diverse questions by instilling an ability to reason over a retrieved context. We acquire context from two knowledge sources; a Wikipedia corpus queried using a multi-hop dense retrieval system with novel extensions, and from rationales generated from a larger Language Model optimised to run in a lower resource environment. Our main contributions: We propose novel methods to show that our model is capable of answering contextualised questions without memorisation. We establish a comprehensive set of baseline results on unseen evaluation datasets. We show that the addition of novel retrieval-augmented training datasets (RATD) to the training regime of the Reasoning Model significantly improves results. We demonstrate further significant improvement through the application of methods for combining knowledge from two sources. The first method (RR) involves training a novel Rationale Ranking model to score both generated rationales and retrieved contexts with respect to relevance and truthfulness. We use the scores to derive combined contexts. We also show that utilising the RATD datasets enables our model to become proficient at utilising combined noisy contexts.

Virtual bidding plays an important role in two-settlement electric power markets, as it can reduce discrepancies between day-ahead and real-time markets. Renewable energy penetration increases volatility in electricity prices, making accurate forecasting critical for virtual bidders, reducing uncertainty and maximizing profits. This study presents a Transformer-based deep learning model to forecast the price spread between real-time and day-ahead electricity prices in the ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) market. The proposed model leverages various time-series features, including load forecasts, solar and wind generation forecasts, and temporal attributes. The model is trained under realistic constraints and validated using a walk-forward approach by updating the model every week. Based on the price spread prediction results, several trading strategies are proposed and the most effective strategy for maximizing cumulative profit under realistic market conditions is identified through backtesting. The results show that the strategy of trading only at the peak hour with a precision score of over 50% produces nearly consistent profit over the test period. The proposed method underscores the importance of an accurate electricity price forecasting model and introduces a new method of evaluating the price forecast model from a virtual bidder's perspective, providing valuable insights for future research.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly impacted nearly every domain of human knowledge. However, the explainability of these models esp. to laypersons, which are crucial for instilling trust, have been examined through various skeptical lenses. In this paper, we introduce a novel notion of LLM explainability to laypersons, termed $\textit{ReQuesting}$, across three high-priority application domains -- law, health and finance, using multiple state-of-the-art LLMs. The proposed notion exhibits faithful generation of explainable layman-understandable algorithms on multiple tasks through high degree of reproducibility. Furthermore, we observe a notable alignment of the explainable algorithms with intrinsic reasoning of the LLMs.

Muon Space (Muon) is building a constellation of small satellites, many of which will carry global navigation satellite system-reflectometry (GNSS-R) receivers. In preparation for the launch of this constellation, we have developed a generalized deep learning retrieval pipeline, which now produces operational GNSS-R near-surface soil moisture retrievals using data from NASA's Cyclone GNSS (CYGNSS) mission. In this article, we describe the input datasets, preprocessing methods, model architecture, development methods, and detail the soil moisture products generated from these retrievals. The performance of this product is quantified against in situ measurements and compared to both the target dataset (retrievals from the Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) satellite) and the v1.0 soil moisture product from the CYGNSS mission. The Muon Space product achieves improvements in spatial resolution over SMAP with comparable performance in many regions. An ubRMSE of 0.032 cm$^3$ cm$^{-3}$ for in situ soil moisture observations from SMAP core validation sites is shown, though performance is lower than SMAP's when comparing in forests and/or mountainous terrain. The Muon Space product outperforms the v1.0 CYGNSS soil moisture product in almost all aspects. This initial release serves as the foundation of our operational soil moisture product, which soon will additionally include data from Muon Space satellites.

Production assertions are statements embedded in the code to help developers validate their assumptions about the code. They assist developers in debugging, provide valuable documentation, and enhance code comprehension. Current research in this area primarily focuses on assertion generation for unit tests using techniques, such as static analysis and deep learning. While these techniques have shown promise, they fall short when it comes to generating production assertions, which serve a different purpose. This preprint addresses the gap by introducing Assertify, an automated end-to-end tool that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) and prompt engineering with few-shot learning to generate production assertions. By creating context-rich prompts, the tool emulates the approach developers take when creating production assertions for their code. To evaluate our approach, we compiled a dataset of 2,810 methods by scraping 22 mature Java repositories from GitHub. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of few-shot learning by producing assertions with an average ROUGE-L score of 0.526, indicating reasonably high structural similarity with the assertions written by developers. This research demonstrates the potential of LLMs in automating the generation of production assertions that resemble the original assertions.