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Covariate Dependent Mixture of Bayesian Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Learning the structure of Bayesian networks from data provides insights into underlying processes and the causal relationships that generate the data, but its usefulness depends on the homogeneity of the data population, a condition often violated in real-world applications. In such cases, using a single network structure for inference can be misleading, as it may not capture sub-population differences. To address this, we propose a novel approach of modelling a mixture of Bayesian networks where component probabilities depend on individual characteristics. Our method identifies both network structures and demographic predictors of sub-population membership, aiding personalised interventions. We evaluate our method through simulations and a youth mental health case study, demonstrating its potential to improve tailored interventions in health, education, and social policy.


Video game giant Ubisoft delays release date of Assassin's Creed Shadows again

BBC News

Assassin's Creed Shadows delayed again UbisoftFemale ninja Naoe is one of Assassin's Creed Shadows' two playable protagonists Video game giant Ubisoft has announced a further delay to its upcoming Assassin's Creed Shadows. The long-running series is one of the French publisher's flagship franchises, with recent instalment, Valhalla, reportedly making more than 1bn. Assassin's Creed Shadows, set in 16th Century Japan, was due to be released on PC, PlayStation and Xbox last November before an initial delay to February 2025. Announcing the new release date of 20 March, executive producer Marc-Alexis Coté said a "few additional weeks are needed" to ensure the game's launch goes smoothly. Players complained that Ubisoft's major 2024 release, Star Wars Outlaws, was launched with bugs and glitches.


Enforcing Fundamental Relations via Adversarial Attacks on Input Parameter Correlations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Correlations between input parameters play a crucial role in many scientific classification tasks, since these are often related to fundamental laws of nature. For example, in high energy physics, one of the common deep learning use-cases is the classification of signal and background processes in particle collisions. In many such cases, the fundamental principles of the correlations between observables are often better understood than the actual distributions of the observables themselves. In this work, we present a new adversarial attack algorithm called Random Distribution Shuffle Attack (RDSA), emphasizing the correlations between observables in the network rather than individual feature characteristics. Correct application of the proposed novel attack can result in a significant improvement in classification performance - particularly in the context of data augmentation - when using the generated adversaries within adversarial training. Given that correlations between input features are also crucial in many other disciplines. We demonstrate the RDSA effectiveness on six classification tasks, including two particle collision challenges (using CERN Open Data), hand-written digit recognition (MNIST784), human activity recognition (HAR), weather forecasting (Rain in Australia), and ICU patient mortality (MIMIC-IV), demonstrating a general use case beyond fundamental physics for this new type of adversarial attack algorithms.


World of ScoreCraft: Novel Multi Scorer Experiment on the Impact of a Decision Support System in Sleep Staging

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Manual scoring of polysomnography (PSG) is a time intensive task, prone to inter scorer variability that can impact diagnostic reliability. This study investigates the integration of decision support systems (DSS) into PSG scoring workflows, focusing on their effects on accuracy, scoring time, and potential biases toward recommendations from artificial intelligence (AI) compared to human generated recommendations. Using a novel online scoring platform, we conducted a repeated measures study with sleep technologists, who scored traditional and self applied PSGs. Participants were occasionally presented with recommendations labeled as either human or AI generated. We found that traditional PSGs tended to be scored slightly more accurately than self applied PSGs, but this difference was not statistically significant. Correct recommendations significantly improved scoring accuracy for both PSG types, while incorrect recommendations reduced accuracy. No significant bias was observed toward or against AI generated recommendations compared to human generated recommendations. These findings highlight the potential of AI to enhance PSG scoring reliability. However, ensuring the accuracy of AI outputs is critical to maximizing its benefits. Future research should explore the long term impacts of DSS on scoring workflows and strategies for integrating AI in clinical practice.


Towards Automatic Evaluation for Image Transcreation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Beyond conventional paradigms of translating speech and text, recently, there has been interest in automated transcreation of images to facilitate localization of visual content across different cultures. Attempts to define this as a formal Machine Learning (ML) problem have been impeded by the lack of automatic evaluation mechanisms, with previous work relying solely on human evaluation. In this paper, we seek to close this gap by proposing a suite of automatic evaluation metrics inspired by machine translation (MT) metrics, categorized into: a) Object-based, b) Embedding-based, and c) VLM-based. Drawing on theories from translation studies and real-world transcreation practices, we identify three critical dimensions of image transcreation: cultural relevance, semantic equivalence and visual similarity, and design our metrics to evaluate systems along these axes. Our results show that proprietary VLMs best identify cultural relevance and semantic equivalence, while vision-encoder representations are adept at measuring visual similarity. Meta-evaluation across 7 countries shows our metrics agree strongly with human ratings, with average segment-level correlations ranging from 0.55-0.87. Finally, through a discussion of the merits and demerits of each metric, we offer a robust framework for automated image transcreation evaluation, grounded in both theoretical foundations and practical application. Our code can be found here: https://github.com/simran-khanuja/automatic-eval-transcreation


A survey of textual cyber abuse detection using cutting-edge language models and large language models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The success of social media platforms has facilitated the emergence of various forms of online abuse within digital communities. This abuse manifests in multiple ways, including hate speech, cyberbullying, emotional abuse, grooming, and sexting. In this paper, we present a comprehensive analysis of the different forms of abuse prevalent in social media, with a particular focus on how emerging technologies, such as Language Models (LMs) and Large Language Models (LLMs), are reshaping both the detection and generation of abusive content within these networks. We delve into the mechanisms through which social media abuse is perpetuated, exploring the psychological and social impact. Additionally, we examine the dual role of advanced language models-highlighting their potential to enhance automated detection systems for abusive behavior while also acknowledging their capacity to generate harmful content. This paper aims to contribute to the ongoing discourse on online safety and ethics, offering insights into the evolving landscape of cyberabuse and the technological innovations that both mitigate and exacerbate it.


Uncertainty-aware Knowledge Tracing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge Tracing (KT) is crucial in education assessment, which focuses on depicting students' learning states and assessing students' mastery of subjects. With the rise of modern online learning platforms, particularly massive open online courses (MOOCs), an abundance of interaction data has greatly advanced the development of the KT technology. Previous research commonly adopts deterministic representation to capture students' knowledge states, which neglects the uncertainty during student interactions and thus fails to model the true knowledge state in learning process. In light of this, we propose an Uncertainty-Aware Knowledge Tracing model (UKT) which employs stochastic distribution embeddings to represent the uncertainty in student interactions, with a Wasserstein self-attention mechanism designed to capture the transition of state distribution in student learning behaviors. Additionally, we introduce the aleatory uncertainty-aware contrastive learning loss, which strengthens the model's robustness towards different types of uncertainties. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that UKT not only significantly surpasses existing deep learning-based models in KT prediction, but also shows unique advantages in handling the uncertainty of student interactions.


TimeDP: Learning to Generate Multi-Domain Time Series with Domain Prompts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Time series generation models are crucial for applications like data augmentation and privacy preservation. Most existing time series generation models are typically designed to generate data from one specified domain. While leveraging data from other domain for better generalization is proved to work in other application areas, this approach remains challenging for time series modeling due to the large divergence in patterns among different real world time series categories. In this paper, we propose a multi-domain time series diffusion model with domain prompts, named TimeDP. In TimeDP, we utilize a time series semantic prototype module which defines time series prototypes to represent time series basis, each prototype vector serving as "word" representing some elementary time series feature. A prototype assignment module is applied to extract the extract domain specific prototype weights, for learning domain prompts as generation condition. During sampling, we extract "domain prompt" with few-shot samples from the target domain and use the domain prompts as condition to generate time series samples. Experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms baselines to provide the state-of-the-art in-domain generation quality and strong unseen domain generation capability.


The global consensus on the risk management of autonomous driving

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Every maneuver of a vehicle redistributes risks between road users. While human drivers do this intuitively, autonomous vehicles allow and require deliberative algorithmic risk management. But how should traffic risks be distributed among road users? In a global experimental study in eight countries with different cultural backgrounds and almost 11,000 participants, we compared risk distribution preferences. It turns out that risk preferences in road traffic are strikingly similar between the cultural zones. The vast majority of participants in all countries deviates from a guiding principle of minimizing accident probabilities in favor of weighing up the probability and severity of accidents. At the national level, the consideration of accident probability and severity hardly differs between countries. The social dilemma of autonomous vehicles detected in deterministic crash scenarios disappears in risk assessments of everyday traffic situations in all countries. In no country do cyclists receive a risk bonus that goes beyond their higher vulnerability. In sum, our results suggest that a global consensus on the risk ethics of autonomous driving is easier to establish than on the ethics of crashing.


On Corrigibility and Alignment in Multi Agent Games

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Corrigibility of autonomous agents is an under explored part of system design, with previous work focusing on single agent systems. It has been suggested that uncertainty over the human preferences acts to keep the agents corrigible, even in the face of human irrationality. We present a general framework for modelling corrigibility in a multi-agent setting as a 2 player game in which the agents always have a move in which they can ask the human for supervision. This is formulated as a Bayesian game for the purpose of introducing uncertainty over the human beliefs. We further analyse two specific cases. First, a two player corrigibility game, in which we want corrigibility displayed in both agents for both common payoff (monotone) games and harmonic games. Then we investigate an adversary setting, in which one agent is considered to be a `defending' agent and the other an `adversary'. A general result is provided for what belief over the games and human rationality the defending agent is required to have to induce corrigibility.