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Patch-wise Structural Loss for Time Series Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Time-series forecasting has gained significant attention in machine learning due to its crucial role in various domains. However, most existing forecasting models rely heavily on point-wise loss functions like Mean Square Error, which treat each time step independently and neglect the structural dependencies inherent in time series data, making it challenging to capture complex temporal patterns accurately. To address these challenges, we propose a novel Patch-wise Structural (PS) loss, designed to enhance structural alignment by comparing time series at the patch level. Through leveraging local statistical properties, such as correlation, variance, and mean, PS loss captures nuanced structural discrepancies overlooked by traditional point-wise losses. Furthermore, it integrates seamlessly with point-wise loss, simultaneously addressing local structural inconsistencies and individual time-step errors. PS loss establishes a novel benchmark for accurately modeling complex time series data and provides a new perspective on time series loss function design. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PS loss significantly improves the performance of state-of-the-art models across diverse real-world datasets.


MTReD: 3D Reconstruction Dataset for Fly-over Videos of Maritime Domain

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work tackles 3D scene reconstruction for a video fly-over perspective problem in the maritime domain, with a specific emphasis on geometrically and visually sound reconstructions. This will allow for downstream tasks such as segmentation, navigation, and localization. To our knowledge, there is no dataset available in this domain. As such, we propose a novel maritime 3D scene reconstruction benchmarking dataset, named as MTReD (Maritime Three-Dimensional Reconstruction Dataset). The MTReD comprises 19 fly-over videos curated from the Internet containing ships, islands, and coastlines. As the task is aimed towards geometrical consistency and visual completeness, the dataset uses two metrics: (1) Reprojection error; and (2) Perception based metrics. We find that existing perception-based metrics, such as Learned Perceptual Image Patch Similarity (LPIPS), do not appropriately measure the completeness of a reconstructed image. Thus, we propose a novel semantic similarity metric utilizing DINOv2 features coined DiFPS (DinoV2 Features Perception Similarity). We perform initial evaluation on two baselines: (1) Structured from Motion (SfM) through Colmap; and (2) the recent state-of-the-art MASt3R model. We find that the reconstructed scenes by MASt3R have higher reprojection errors, but superior perception based metric scores. To this end, some pre-processing methods are explored, and we find a pre-processing method which improves both the reprojection error and perception-based score. We envisage our proposed MTReD to stimulate further research in these directions. The dataset and all the code will be made available in https://github.com/RuiYiYong/MTReD.


Waste Not, Want Not; Recycled Gumbel Noise Improves Consistency in Natural Language Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Consistency in the output of language models is critical for their reliability and practical utility. Due to their training objective, language models learn to model the full space of possible continuations, leading to outputs that can vary significantly in style and content, even for similar or repeated inputs. To address this, we propose a novel decoding algorithm that enhances response consistency across different prompts with no degradation in response quality. By incorporating a latent variable into the next-token sampling process based on the Gumbel reparametrisation trick, our method outperforms standard sampling by up to 10% across semantic and stylistic consistency benchmarks.


Towards Reliable LLM-Driven Fuzz Testing: Vision and Road Ahead

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Fuzz testing is a crucial component of software security assessment, yet its effectiveness heavily relies on valid fuzz drivers and diverse seed inputs. Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) offer transformative potential for automating fuzz testing (LLM4Fuzz), particularly in generating drivers and seeds. However, current LLM4Fuzz solutions face critical reliability challenges, including low driver validity rates and seed quality trade-offs, hindering their practical adoption. This paper aims to examine the reliability bottlenecks of LLM-driven fuzzing and explores potential research directions to address these limitations. It begins with an overview of the current development of LLM4SE and emphasizes the necessity for developing reliable LLM4Fuzz solutions. Following this, the paper envisions a vision where reliable LLM4Fuzz transforms the landscape of software testing and security for industry, software development practitioners, and economic accessibility. It then outlines a road ahead for future research, identifying key challenges and offering specific suggestions for the researchers to consider. This work strives to spark innovation in the field, positioning reliable LLM4Fuzz as a fundamental component of modern software testing.


Scalable Decision-Making in Stochastic Environments through Learned Temporal Abstraction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

If we were to apply MCTS directly to this abstracted space, we would encounter two main issues: inefficient utilization of our pre-built search space, with the search potentially diverging prematurely into unexplored regions, and difficulty in building sufficiently deep trees for high-quality long-term decision-making, particularly in areas of high stochasticity or uncertainty (Cou etoux et al., 2011). Therefore, we use progressive widening to extend MCTS to incrementally expand the search tree. It balances the exploration of new states with the exploitation of already visited states based on two hyperparameters: α [0, 1] and ϵ R + . Let |C (s, z) | denote the number of children for the state-action pair (s, z) . The key idea is to alternate between adding new child nodes and selecting among existing child nodes, depending on the number of times a state-action pair ( s, z) has been visited. A new state is added to the tree if |C ( s, z)| < ϵ N (s, z) α, where N (s, z) is the number of times the state-action pair has been visited. The hyperparameter α controls the propensity to select among existing children, with α = 0 leading to always selecting among existing child and α = 1 leading to vanilla MCTS behavior (always adding a new child). In this way, we could enhance our approach by efficiently utilizing the pre-built search space, prioritizing the exploration of promising macro actions while allowing for incremental expansion of the search tree. This technique enables our method to make quick decisions in an anytime manner, leveraging the cached information, and further refine the planning tree if additional time is available.


Vector Copula Variational Inference and Dependent Block Posterior Approximations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Variational inference (VI) is a popular method to estimate statistical and econometric models. The key to VI is the selection of a tractable density to approximate the Bayesian posterior. For large and complex models a common choice is to assume independence between multivariate blocks in a partition of the parameter space. While this simplifies the problem it can reduce accuracy. This paper proposes using vector copulas to capture dependence between the blocks parsimoniously. Tailored multivariate marginals are constructed using learnable cyclically monotone transformations. We call the resulting joint distribution a ``dependent block posterior'' approximation. Vector copula models are suggested that make tractable and flexible variational approximations. They allow for differing marginals, numbers of blocks, block sizes and forms of between block dependence. They also allow for solution of the variational optimization using fast and efficient stochastic gradient methods. The efficacy and versatility of the approach is demonstrated using four different statistical models and 16 datasets which have posteriors that are challenging to approximate. In all cases, our method produces more accurate posterior approximations than benchmark VI methods that either assume block independence or factor-based dependence, at limited additional computational cost.


A new practical and effective source-independent full-waveform inversion with a velocity-distribution supported deep image prior: Applications to two real datasets

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Full-waveform inversion (FWI) is an advanced technique for reconstructing high-resolution subsurface physical parameters by progressively minimizing the discrepancy between observed and predicted seismic data. However, conventional FWI encounters challenges in real data applications, primarily due to its conventional objective of direct measurements of the data misfit. Accurate estimation of the source wavelet is essential for effective data fitting, alongside the need for low-frequency data and a reasonable initial model to prevent cycle skipping. Additionally, wave equation solvers often struggle to accurately simulate the amplitude of observed data in real applications. To address these challenges, we introduce a correlation-based source-independent objective function for FWI that aims to mitigate source uncertainty and amplitude dependency, which effectively enhances its practicality for real data applications. We develop a deep-learning framework constrained by this new objective function with a velocity-distribution supported deep image prior, which reparameterizes velocity inversion into trainable parameters within an autoencoder, thereby reducing the nonlinearity in the conventional FWI's objective function. We demonstrate the superiority of our proposed method using synthetic data from benchmark velocity models and, more importantly, two real datasets. These examples highlight its effectiveness and practicality even under challenging conditions, such as missing low frequencies, a crude initial velocity model, and an incorrect source wavelet.


Towards Refining Developer Questions using LLM-Based Named Entity Recognition for Developer Chatroom Conversations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In software engineering chatrooms, communication is often hindered by imprecise questions that cannot be answered. Recognizing key entities can be essential for improving question clarity and facilitating better exchange. However, existing research using natural language processing techniques often overlooks these software-specific nuances. In this paper, we introduce Software-specific Named Entity Recognition, Intent Detection, and Resolution Classification (SENIR), a labeling approach that leverages a Large Language Model to annotate entities, intents, and resolution status in developer chatroom conversations. To offer quantitative guidance for improving question clarity and resolvability, we build a resolution prediction model that leverages SENIR's entity and intent labels along with additional predictive features. We evaluate SENIR on the DISCO dataset using a subset of annotated chatroom dialogues. SENIR achieves an 86% F-score for entity recognition, a 71% F-score for intent detection, and an 89% F-score for resolution status classification. Furthermore, our resolution prediction model, tested with various sampling strategies (random undersampling and oversampling with SMOTE) and evaluation methods (5-fold cross-validation, 10-fold cross-validation, and bootstrapping), demonstrates AUC values ranging from 0.7 to 0.8. Key factors influencing resolution include positive sentiment and entities such as Programming Language and User Variable across multiple intents, while diagnostic entities are more relevant in error-related questions. Moreover, resolution rates vary significantly by intent: questions about API Usage and API Change achieve higher resolution rates, whereas Discrepancy and Review have lower resolution rates. A Chi-Square analysis confirms the statistical significance of these differences.


Bayesian Active Learning for Multi-Criteria Comparative Judgement in Educational Assessment

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Comparative Judgement (CJ) provides an alternative assessment approach by evaluating work holistically rather than breaking it into discrete criteria. This method leverages human ability to make nuanced comparisons, yielding more reliable and valid assessments. CJ aligns with real-world evaluations, where overall quality emerges from the interplay of various elements. However, rubrics remain widely used in education, offering structured criteria for grading and detailed feedback. This creates a gap between CJ's holistic ranking and the need for criterion-based performance breakdowns. This paper addresses this gap using a Bayesian approach. We build on Bayesian CJ (BCJ) by Gray et al., which directly models preferences instead of using likelihoods over total scores, allowing for expected ranks with uncertainty estimation. Their entropy-based active learning method selects the most informative pairwise comparisons for assessors. We extend BCJ to handle multiple independent learning outcome (LO) components, defined by a rubric, enabling both holistic and component-wise predictive rankings with uncertainty estimates. Additionally, we propose a method to aggregate entropies and identify the most informative comparison for assessors. Experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate our method's effectiveness. Finally, we address a key limitation of BCJ, which is the inability to quantify assessor agreement. We show how to derive agreement levels, enhancing transparency in assessment.


Urban Safety Perception Through the Lens of Large Multimodal Models: A Persona-based Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding how urban environments are perceived in terms of safety is crucial for urban planning and policymaking. Traditional methods like surveys are limited by high cost, required time, and scalability issues. To overcome these challenges, this study introduces Large Multimodal Models (LMMs), specifically Llava 1.6 7B, as a novel approach to assess safety perceptions of urban spaces using street-view images. In addition, the research investigated how this task is affected by different socio-demographic perspectives, simulated by the model through Persona-based prompts. Without additional fine-tuning, the model achieved an average F1-score of 59.21% in classifying urban scenarios as safe or unsafe, identifying three key drivers of perceived unsafety: isolation, physical decay, and urban infrastructural challenges. Moreover, incorporating Persona-based prompts revealed significant variations in safety perceptions across the socio-demographic groups of age, gender, and nationality. Elder and female Personas consistently perceive higher levels of unsafety than younger or male Personas. Similarly, nationality-specific differences were evident in the proportion of unsafe classifications ranging from 19.71% in Singapore to 40.15% in Botswana. Notably, the model's default configuration aligned most closely with a middle-aged, male Persona. These findings highlight the potential of LMMs as a scalable and cost-effective alternative to traditional methods for urban safety perceptions. While the sensitivity of these models to socio-demographic factors underscores the need for thoughtful deployment, their ability to provide nuanced perspectives makes them a promising tool for AI-driven urban planning.