With large quantities of data typically available nowadays, forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series, known as Global Forecasting Models (GFM), are regularly outperforming traditional univariate forecasting models that work on isolated series. As GFMs usually share the same set of parameters across all time series, they often have the problem of not being localised enough to a particular series, especially in situations where datasets are heterogeneous. We study how ensembling techniques can be used with generic GFMs and univariate models to solve this issue. Our work systematises and compares relevant current approaches, namely clustering series and training separate submodels per cluster, the so-called ensemble of specialists approach, and building heterogeneous ensembles of global and local models. We fill some gaps in the approaches and generalise them to different underlying GFM model types. We then propose a new methodology of clustered ensembles where we train multiple GFMs on different clusters of series, obtained by changing the number of clusters and cluster seeds. Using Feed-forward Neural Networks, Recurrent Neural Networks, and Pooled Regression models as the underlying GFMs, in our evaluation on six publicly available datasets, the proposed models are able to achieve significantly higher accuracy than baseline GFM models and univariate forecasting methods.

For task-oriented dialog systems to be maximally useful, it must be able to process conversations in a way that is (1) generalizable with a small number of training examples for new task domains, and (2) robust to user input in various styles, modalities or domains. In pursuit of these goals, we introduce the RADDLE benchmark, a collection of corpora and tools for evaluating the performance of models across a diverse set of domains. By including tasks with limited training data, RADDLE is designed to favor and encourage models with a strong generalization ability. RADDLE also includes a diagnostic checklist that facilitates detailed robustness analysis in aspects such as language variations, speech errors, unseen entities, and out-of-domain utterances. We evaluate recent state-of-the-art systems based on pre-training and fine-tuning, and find that grounded pre-training on heterogeneous dialog corpora performs better than training a separate model per domain. Overall, existing models are less than satisfactory in robustness evaluation, which suggests opportunities for future improvement.

The ever-increasing data traffic, various delay-sensitive services, and the massive deployment of energy-limited Internet of Things (IoT) devices have brought huge challenges to the current communication networks, motivating academia and industry to move to the sixth-generation (6G) network. With the powerful capability of data transmission and processing, 6G is considered as an enabler for IoT communication with low latency and energy cost. In this paper, we propose an artificial intelligence (AI) and intelligent reflecting surface (IRS) empowered energy-efficiency communication system for 6G IoT. First, we design a smart and efficient communication architecture including the IRS-aided data transmission and the AI-driven network resource management mechanisms. Second, an energy efficiency-maximizing model under given transmission latency for 6G IoT system is formulated, which jointly optimizes the settings of all communication participants, i.e. IoT transmission power, IRS-reflection phase shift, and BS detection matrix. Third, a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) empowered network resource control and allocation scheme is proposed to solve the formulated optimization model. Based on the network and channel status, the DRL-enabled scheme facilities the energy-efficiency and low-latency communication. Finally, experimental results verified the effectiveness of our proposed communication system for 6G IoT.

Open-domain dialogue agents have vastly improved, but still confidently hallucinate knowledge or express doubt when asked straightforward questions. In this work, we analyze whether state-of-the-art chit-chat models can express metacognition capabilities through their responses: does a verbalized expression of doubt (or confidence) match the likelihood that the model's answer is incorrect (or correct)? We find that these models are poorly calibrated in this sense, yet we show that the representations within the models can be used to accurately predict likelihood of correctness. By incorporating these correctness predictions into the training of a controllable generation model, we obtain a dialogue agent with greatly improved linguistic calibration.

The paper develops the Adaptive Dynamic Programming Toolbox (ADPT), which solves optimal control problems for continuous-time nonlinear systems. Based on the adaptive dynamic programming technique, the ADPT computes optimal feedback controls from the system dynamics in the model-based working mode, or from measurements of trajectories of the system in the model-free working mode without the requirement of knowledge of the system model. Multiple options are provided such that the ADPT can accommodate various customized circumstances. Compared to other popular software toolboxes for optimal control, the ADPT enjoys its computational precision and speed, which is illustrated with its applications to a satellite attitude control problem.

To quantify how well natural language understanding models can capture consistency in a general conversation, we introduce the DialoguE COntradiction DEtection task (DECODE) and a new conversational dataset containing both human-human and human-bot contradictory dialogues. We then compare a structured utterance-based approach of using pre-trained Transformer models for contradiction detection with the typical unstructured approach. Results reveal that: (i) our newly collected dataset is notably more effective at providing supervision for the dialogue contradiction detection task than existing NLI data including those aimed to cover the dialogue domain; (ii) the structured utterance-based approach is more robust and transferable on both analysis and out-of-distribution dialogues than its unstructured counterpart. We also show that our best contradiction detection model correlates well with human judgments and further provide evidence for its usage in both automatically evaluating and improving the consistency of state-of-the-art generative chatbots.

We introduce a novel interpretable and tree-based algorithm for prediction in a regression setting in which each tree in a classical random forest is replaced by a family of planted trees that grow simultaneously. The motivation for our algorithm is to estimate the unknown regression function from a functional ANOVA decomposition perspective, where each tree corresponds to a function within that decomposition. Therefore, planted trees are limited in the number of interaction terms. The maximal order of approximation in the ANOVA decomposition can be specified or left unlimited. If a first order approximation is chosen, the result is an additive model. In the other extreme case, if the order of approximation is not limited, the resulting model puts no restrictions on the form of the regression function. In a simulation study we find encouraging prediction and visualisation properties of our random planted forest method. We also develop theory for an idealised version of random planted forests in the case of an underlying additive model. We show that in the additive case, the idealised version achieves up to a logarithmic factor asymptotically optimal one-dimensional convergence rates of order $n^{-2/5}$.

Latent space models are frequently used for modeling single-layer networks and include many popular special cases, such as the stochastic block model and the random dot product graph. However, they are not well-developed for more complex network structures, which are becoming increasingly common in practice. Here we propose a new latent space model for multiplex networks: multiple, heterogeneous networks observed on a shared node set. Multiplex networks can represent a network sample with shared node labels, a network evolving over time, or a network with multiple types of edges. The key feature of our model is that it learns from data how much of the network structure is shared between layers and pools information across layers as appropriate. We establish identifiability, develop a fitting procedure using convex optimization in combination with a nuclear norm penalty, and prove a guarantee of recovery for the latent positions as long as there is sufficient separation between the shared and the individual latent subspaces. We compare the model to competing methods in the literature on simulated networks and on a multiplex network describing the worldwide trade of agricultural products.

Portfolio optimization is one of the most attentive fields that have been researched with machine learning approaches. Many researchers attempted to solve this problem using deep reinforcement learning due to its efficient inherence that can handle the property of financial markets. However, most of them can hardly be applicable to real-world trading since they ignore or extremely simplify the realistic constraints of transaction costs. These constraints have a significantly negative impact on portfolio profitability. In our research, a conservative level of transaction fees and slippage are considered for the realistic experiment. To enhance the performance under those constraints, we propose a novel Deterministic Policy Gradient with 2D Relative-attentional Gated Transformer (DPGRGT) model. Applying learnable relative positional embeddings for the time and assets axes, the model better understands the peculiar structure of the financial data in the portfolio optimization domain. Also, gating layers and layer reordering are employed for stable convergence of Transformers in reinforcement learning. In our experiment using U.S. stock market data of 20 years, our model outperformed baseline models and demonstrated its effectiveness.

Dialogue policy learning based on reinforcement learning is difficult to be applied to real users to train dialogue agents from scratch because of the high cost. User simulators, which choose random user goals for the dialogue agent to train on, have been considered as an affordable substitute for real users. However, this random sampling method ignores the law of human learning, making the learned dialogue policy inefficient and unstable. We propose a novel framework, Automatic Curriculum Learning-based Deep Q-Network (ACL-DQN), which replaces the traditional random sampling method with a teacher policy model to realize the dialogue policy for automatic curriculum learning. The teacher model arranges a meaningful ordered curriculum and automatically adjusts it by monitoring the learning progress of the dialogue agent and the over-repetition penalty without any requirement of prior knowledge. The learning progress of the dialogue agent reflects the relationship between the dialogue agent's ability and the sampled goals' difficulty for sample efficiency. The over-repetition penalty guarantees the sampled diversity. Experiments show that the ACL-DQN significantly improves the effectiveness and stability of dialogue tasks with a statistically significant margin. Furthermore, the framework can be further improved by equipping with different curriculum schedules, which demonstrates that the framework has strong generalizability.