Since their inception, learning techniques under the Reservoir Computing paradigm have shown a great modeling capability for recurrent systems without the computing overheads required for other approaches. Among them, different flavors of echo state networks have attracted many stares through time, mainly due to the simplicity and computational efficiency of their learning algorithm. However, these advantages do not compensate for the fact that echo state networks remain as black-box models whose decisions cannot be easily explained to the general audience. This work addresses this issue by conducting an explainability study of Echo State Networks when applied to learning tasks with time series, image and video data. Specifically, the study proposes three different techniques capable of eliciting understandable information about the knowledge grasped by these recurrent models, namely, potential memory, temporal patterns and pixel absence effect. Potential memory addresses questions related to the effect of the reservoir size in the capability of the model to store temporal information, whereas temporal patterns unveils the recurrent relationships captured by the model over time. Finally, pixel absence effect attempts at evaluating the effect of the absence of a given pixel when the echo state network model is used for image and video classification. We showcase the benefits of our proposed suite of techniques over three different domains of applicability: time series modeling, image and, for the first time in the related literature, video classification. Our results reveal that the proposed techniques not only allow for a informed understanding of the way these models work, but also serve as diagnostic tools capable of detecting issues inherited from data (e.g. presence of hidden bias).

Accurate forecasting of medical service requirements is an important big data problem that is crucial for resource management in critical times such as natural disasters and pandemics. With the global spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), several concerns have been raised regarding the ability of medical systems to handle sudden changes in the daily routines of healthcare providers. One significant problem is the management of ambulance dispatch and control during a pandemic. To help address this problem, we first analyze ambulance dispatch data records from April 2014 to August 2020 for Nagoya City, Japan. Significant changes were observed in the data during the pandemic, including the state of emergency (SoE) declared across Japan. In this study, we propose a deep learning framework based on recurrent neural networks to estimate the number of emergency ambulance dispatches (EADs) during a SoE. The fusion of data includes environmental factors, the localization data of mobile phone users, and the past history of EADs, thereby providing a general framework for knowledge discovery and better resource management. The results indicate that the proposed blend of training data can be used efficiently in a real-world estimation of EAD requirements during periods of high uncertainties such as pandemics.

Interpretability methods aim to help users build trust in and understand the capabilities of machine learning models. However, existing approaches often rely on abstract, complex visualizations that poorly map to the task at hand or require non-trivial ML expertise to interpret. Here, we present two interface modules to facilitate a more intuitive assessment of model reliability. To help users better characterize and reason about a model's uncertainty, we visualize raw and aggregate information about a given input's nearest neighbors in the training dataset. Using an interactive editor, users can manipulate this input in semantically-meaningful ways, determine the effect on the output, and compare against their prior expectations. We evaluate our interface using an electrocardiogram beat classification case study. Compared to a baseline feature importance interface, we find that 9 physicians are better able to align the model's uncertainty with clinically relevant factors and build intuition about its capabilities and limitations.

Flu circulates all over the world. The worldwide infection places a substantial burden on people's health every year. Regardless of the characteristic of the worldwide circulation of flu, most previous studies focused on regional prediction of flu outbreaks. The methodology of considering the spatio-temporal correlation could help forecast flu outbreaks more precisely. Furthermore, forecasting a long-term flu outbreak, and understanding flu infection trends more accurately could help hospitals, clinics, and pharmaceutical companies to better prepare for annual flu outbreaks. Predicting a sequence of values in the future, namely, the multi-step prediction of flu outbreaks should cause concern. Therefore, we highlight the importance of developing spatio-temporal methodologies to perform multi-step prediction of worldwide flu outbreaks. We compared the MAPEs of SVM, RF, LSTM models of predicting flu data of the 1-4 weeks ahead with and without other countries' flu data. We found the LSTM models achieved the lowest MAPEs in most cases. As for countries in the Southern hemisphere, the MAPEs of predicting flu data with other countries are higher than those of predicting without other countries. For countries in the Northern hemisphere, the MAPEs of predicting flu data of the 2-4 weeks ahead with other countries are lower than those of predicting without other countries; and the MAPEs of predicting flu data of the 1-weeks ahead with other countries are higher than those of predicting without other countries, except for the UK. In this study, we performed the spatio-temporal multi-step prediction of influenza outbreaks. The methodology considering the spatio-temporal features improves the multi-step prediction of flu outbreaks.

COVID-19 classification using chest Computed Tomography (CT) has been found pragmatically useful by several studies. Due to the lack of annotated samples, these studies recommend transfer learning and explore the choices of pre-trained models and data augmentation. However, it is still unknown if there are better strategies than vanilla transfer learning for more accurate COVID-19 classification with limited CT data. This paper provides an affirmative answer, devising a novel `model' augmentation technique that allows a considerable performance boost to transfer learning for the task. Our method systematically reduces the distributional shift between the source and target domains and considers augmenting deep learning with complementary representation learning techniques. We establish the efficacy of our method with publicly available datasets and models, along with identifying contrasting observations in the previous studies.

Reinforcement learning has shown great potential in developing high-level autonomous driving. However, for high-dimensional tasks, current RL methods suffer from low data efficiency and oscillation in the training process. This paper proposes an algorithm called Learn to drive with Virtual Memory (LVM) to overcome these problems. LVM compresses the high-dimensional information into compact latent states and learns a latent dynamic model to summarize the agent's experience. Various imagined latent trajectories are generated as virtual memory by the latent dynamic model. The policy is learned by propagating gradient through the learned latent model with the imagined latent trajectories and thus leads to high data efficiency. Furthermore, a double critic structure is designed to reduce the oscillation during the training process. The effectiveness of LVM is demonstrated by an image-input autonomous driving task, in which LVM outperforms the existing method in terms of data efficiency, learning stability, and control performance.

Multi-label classification (MLC) has recently received increasing interest from the machine learning community. Several studies provide reviews of methods and datasets for MLC and a few provide empirical comparisons of MLC methods. However, they are limited in the number of methods and datasets considered. This work provides a comprehensive empirical study of a wide range of MLC methods on a plethora of datasets from various domains. More specifically, our study evaluates 26 methods on 42 benchmark datasets using 20 evaluation measures. The adopted evaluation methodology adheres to the highest literature standards for designing and executing large scale, time-budgeted experimental studies. First, the methods are selected based on their usage by the community, assuring representation of methods across the MLC taxonomy of methods and different base learners. Second, the datasets cover a wide range of complexity and domains of application. The selected evaluation measures assess the predictive performance and the efficiency of the methods. The results of the analysis identify RFPCT, RFDTBR, ECCJ48, EBRJ48 and AdaBoostMH as best performing methods across the spectrum of performance measures. Whenever a new method is introduced, it should be compared to different subsets of MLC methods, determined on the basis of the different evaluation criteria.

Edge federated learning (FL) is an emerging machine learning paradigm that trains a global parametric model from distributed datasets via wireless communications. This paper proposes a unit-modulus over-the-air computation (UM-AirComp) framework to facilitate efficient edge federated learning, which simultaneously uploads local model parameters and updates global model parameters via analog beamforming. The proposed framework avoids sophisticated baseband signal processing, leading to low communication delays and implementation costs. A training loss bound of UM-AirComp is derived and two low-complexity algorithms, termed penalty alternating minimization (PAM) and accelerated gradient projection (AGP), are proposed to minimize the nonconvex nonsmooth loss bound. Simulation results show that the proposed UM-AirComp framework with PAM algorithm not only achieves a smaller mean square error of model parameters' estimation, training loss, and testing error, but also requires a significantly shorter runtime than that of other benchmark schemes. Moreover, the proposed UM-AirComp framework with AGP algorithm achieves satisfactory performance while reduces the computational complexity by orders of magnitude compared with existing optimization algorithms. Finally, we demonstrate the implementation of UM-AirComp in a vehicle-to-everything autonomous driving simulation platform. It is found that autonomous driving tasks are more sensitive to model parameter errors than other tasks since the former neural networks are more sophisticated containing sparser model parameters.

Title to be confirmed Speaker: Fabio Petroni Organised by: Stanford MLSys Join the email list to find out how to register for each seminar. Title to be confirmed Speaker: Chad Jenkins (University of Michigan) Organised by: Robotics Today Watch the seminar here. Title to be confirmed Speaker: Samory K. Kpotufe Organised by: London School of Economics and Political Science Register here.

In the study of natural and artificial complex systems, responses that are not completely determined by the considered decision variables are commonly modelled probabilistically, resulting in response distributions varying across decision space. We consider cases where the spatial variation of these response distributions does not only concern their mean and/or variance but also other features including for instance shape or uni-modality versus multi-modality. Our contributions build upon a non-parametric Bayesian approach to modelling the thereby induced fields of probability distributions, and in particular to a spatial extension of the logistic Gaussian model. The considered models deliver probabilistic predictions of response distributions at candidate points, allowing for instance to perform (approximate) posterior simulations of probability density functions, to jointly predict multiple moments and other functionals of target distributions, as well as to quantify the impact of collecting new samples on the state of knowledge of the distribution field of interest. In particular, we introduce adaptive sampling strategies leveraging the potential of the considered random distribution field models to guide system evaluations in a goal-oriented way, with a view towards parsimoniously addressing calibration and related problems from non-linear (stochastic) inversion and global optimisation.