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Model Compression for Dynamic Forecast Combination

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The predictive advantage of combining several different predictive models is widely accepted. Particularly in time series forecasting problems, this combination is often dynamic to cope with potential non-stationary sources of variation present in the data. Despite their superior predictive performance, ensemble methods entail two main limitations: high computational costs and lack of transparency. These issues often preclude the deployment of such approaches, in favour of simpler yet more efficient and reliable ones. In this paper, we leverage the idea of model compression to address this problem in time series forecasting tasks. Model compression approaches have been mostly unexplored for forecasting. Their application in time series is challenging due to the evolving nature of the data. Further, while the literature focuses on neural networks, we apply model compression to distinct types of methods. In an extensive set of experiments, we show that compressing dynamic forecasting ensembles into an individual model leads to a comparable predictive performance and a drastic reduction in computational costs. Further, the compressed individual model with best average rank is a rule-based regression model. Thus, model compression also leads to benefits in terms of model interpretability. The experiments carried in this paper are fully reproducible.


ASER: Towards Large-scale Commonsense Knowledge Acquisition via Higher-order Selectional Preference over Eventualities

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Commonsense knowledge acquisition and reasoning have long been a core artificial intelligence problem. However, in the past, there has been a lack of scalable methods to collect commonsense knowledge. In this paper, we propose to develop principles for collecting commonsense knowledge based on selectional preference. We generalize the definition of selectional preference from one-hop linguistic syntactic relations to higher-order relations over linguistic graphs. Unlike previous commonsense knowledge definition (e.g., ConceptNet), the selectional preference (SP) knowledge only relies on statistical distribution over linguistic graphs, which can be efficiently and accurately acquired from the unlabeled corpus with modern tools. Following this principle, we develop a large-scale eventuality (a linguistic term covering activity, state, and event)-based knowledge graph ASER, where each eventuality is represented as a dependency graph, and the relation between them is a discourse relation defined in shallow discourse parsing. The higher-order selectional preference over collected linguistic graphs reflects various kinds of commonsense knowledge. Moreover, motivated by the observation that humans understand events by abstracting the observed events to a higher level and can thus transferring their knowledge to new events, we propose a conceptualization module to significantly boost the coverage of ASER. In total, ASER contains 438 million eventualities and 648 million edges between eventualities. After conceptualization with Probase, a selectional preference based concept-instance relational knowledge base, our concept graph contains 15 million conceptualized eventualities and 224 million edges between them. Detailed analysis is provided to demonstrate its quality. All the collected data, APIs, and tools are available at https://github.com/HKUST-KnowComp/ASER.


Discrete Reasoning Templates for Natural Language Understanding

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reasoning about information from multiple parts of a passage to derive an answer is an open challenge for reading-comprehension models. In this paper, we present an approach that reasons about complex questions by decomposing them to simpler subquestions that can take advantage of single-span extraction reading-comprehension models, and derives the final answer according to instructions in a predefined reasoning template. We focus on subtraction-based arithmetic questions and evaluate our approach on a subset of the DROP dataset. We show that our approach is competitive with the state-of-the-art while being interpretable and requires little supervision


Acted vs. Improvised: Domain Adaptation for Elicitation Approaches in Audio-Visual Emotion Recognition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Key challenges in developing generalized automatic emotion recognition systems include scarcity of labeled data and lack of gold-standard references. Even for the cues that are labeled as the same emotion category, the variability of associated expressions can be high depending on the elicitation context e.g., emotion elicited during improvised conversations vs. acted sessions with predefined scripts. In this work, we regard the emotion elicitation approach as domain knowledge, and explore domain transfer learning techniques on emotional utterances collected under different emotion elicitation approaches, particularly with limited labeled target samples. Our emotion recognition model combines the gradient reversal technique with an entropy loss function as well as the softlabel loss, and the experiment results show that domain transfer learning methods can be employed to alleviate the domain mismatch between different elicitation approaches. Our work provides new insights into emotion data collection, particularly the impact of its elicitation strategies, and the importance of domain adaptation in emotion recognition aiming for generalized systems.


Automating Transfer Credit Assessment in Student Mobility -- A Natural Language Processing-based Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Student mobility or academic mobility involves students moving between institutions during their post-secondary education, and one of the challenging tasks in this process is to assess the transfer credits to be offered to the incoming student. In general, this process involves domain experts comparing the learning outcomes of the courses, to decide on offering transfer credits to the incoming students. This manual implementation is not only labor-intensive but also influenced by undue bias and administrative complexity. The proposed research article focuses on identifying a model that exploits the advancements in the field of Natural Language Processing (NLP) to effectively automate this process. Given the unique structure, domain specificity, and complexity of learning outcomes (LOs), a need for designing a tailor-made model arises. The proposed model uses a clustering-inspired methodology based on knowledge-based semantic similarity measures to assess the taxonomic similarity of LOs and a transformer-based semantic similarity model to assess the semantic similarity of the LOs. The similarity between LOs is further aggregated to form course to course similarity. Due to the lack of quality benchmark datasets, a new benchmark dataset containing seven course-to-course similarity measures is proposed. Understanding the inherent need for flexibility in the decision-making process the aggregation part of the model offers tunable parameters to accommodate different scenarios. While providing an efficient model to assess the similarity between courses with existing resources, this research work steers future research attempts to apply NLP in the field of articulation in an ideal direction by highlighting the persisting research gaps.


When Can Liquid Democracy Unveil the Truth?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we investigate the so-called ODP-problem that has been formulated by Caragiannis and Micha [10]. Here, we are in a setting with two election alternatives out of which one is assumed to be correct. In ODP, the goal is to organise the delegations in the social network in order to maximize the probability that the correct alternative, referred to as ground truth, is elected. While the problem is known to be computationally hard, we strengthen existing hardness results by providing a novel strong approximation hardness result: For any positive constant $C$, we prove that, unless $P=NP$, there is no polynomial-time algorithm for ODP that achieves an approximation guarantee of $\alpha \ge (\ln n)^{-C}$, where $n$ is the number of voters. The reduction designed for this result uses poorly connected social networks in which some voters suffer from misinformation. Interestingly, under some hypothesis on either the accuracies of voters or the connectivity of the network, we obtain a polynomial-time $1/2$-approximation algorithm. This observation proves formally that the connectivity of the social network is a key feature for the efficiency of the liquid democracy paradigm. Lastly, we run extensive simulations and observe that simple algorithms (working either in a centralized or decentralized way) outperform direct democracy on a large class of instances. Overall, our contributions yield new insights on the question in which situations liquid democracy can be beneficial.


Songen is an app that uses AI to generate royalty-free song ideas

#artificialintelligence

Songen is an iOS app that lets you generate new royalty-free music with just a few taps of the screen. It does this with the help of an AI-assisted engine that essentially sketches out a song idea for you. The app generates music based on the genre you select. Songen then generates 10 song ideas and you'll have the option to save the ones you like. In the next step, you can refine the song by adjusting the tempo, changing the key and swapping instrumentations.


Revisiting Indirect Ontology Alignment : New Challenging Issues in Cross-Lingual Context

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ontology alignment process is overwhelmingly cited in Knowledge Engineering as a key mechanism aimed at bypassing heterogeneity and reconciling various data sources, represented by ontologies, i.e., the the Semantic Web cornerstone. In such infrastructures and environments, it is inconceivable to assume that all ontologies covering a particular domain of knowledge are aligned in pairs. Moreover, the high performance of alignment approaches is closely related to two factors, i.e., time consumption and machine resource limitations. Thus, good quality alignments are valuable and it would be appropriate to exploit them. Based on this observation, this article introduces a new method of indirect alignment of ontologies in a cross-lingual context. Indeed, the proposed method deals with alignments of multilingual ontologies and implements an indirect ontology alignment strategy based on a composition and reuse of effective direct alignments. The trigger of the proposed method process is based on alignment algebra which governs the semantics composition of relationships and confidence values. The obtained results, after a thorough and detailed experiment are very encouraging and highlight many positive aspects about the new proposed method.


Understanding Continual Learning Settings with Data Distribution Drift Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Classical machine learning algorithms often assume that the data are drawn i.i.d. from a stationary probability distribution. Recently, continual learning emerged as a rapidly growing area of machine learning where this assumption is relaxed, namely, where the data distribution is non-stationary, i.e., changes over time. However, data distribution drifts may interfere with the learning process and erase previously learned knowledge; thus, continual learning algorithms must include specialized mechanisms to deal with such distribution drifts. A distribution drift may change the class labels distribution, the input distribution, or both. Moreover, distribution drifts might be abrupt or gradual. In this paper, we aim to identify and categorize different types of data distribution drifts and potential assumptions about them, to better characterize various continual-learning scenarios. Moreover, we propose to use the distribution drift framework to provide more precise definitions of several terms commonly used in the continual learning field.


ReCAM@IITK at SemEval-2021 Task 4: BERT and ALBERT based Ensemble for Abstract Word Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper describes our system for Task 4 of SemEval-2021: Reading Comprehension of Abstract Meaning (ReCAM). We participated in all subtasks where the main goal was to predict an abstract word missing from a statement. We fine-tuned the pre-trained masked language models namely BERT and ALBERT and used an Ensemble of these as our submitted system on Subtask 1 (ReCAM-Imperceptibility) and Subtask 2 (ReCAM-Nonspecificity). For Subtask 3 (ReCAM-Intersection), we submitted the ALBERT model as it gives the best results. We tried multiple approaches and found that Masked Language Modeling(MLM) based approach works the best.