Title: The AI-First Company: How to Compete and Win with Artificial Intelligence Author: Ash Fontana Published: 2021 by Portfolio / Penguin What It Teaches: Ash Fontana is a managing director of Zetta Venture Partners, an investment fund focused on AI. He draws upon the lessons he's learned through the companies he's invested in and worked with to share a very broad array of observations about how companies should think about, leverage, and manage data and artificial intelligence. He introduces a new concept, data learning effects, as the driving value creator in what I call the Connected Intelligence age. When To Use It: In the book's conclusion, Fontana describes the contents of The AI-First Company as "fresh data" that leaders can "process" and combine with other inputs as they iteratively create reinforcing learning loops that enable them to create their own competitive advantage. As such, the broad array of information in the book shouldn't be viewed as perfect or a step-by-step roadmap for building a winning AI-led strategy, but rather one input among others that can help inform your strategy, if appropriately filtered and evaluated.

The belief that AI dominance is imperative for economic development, military control, and strategic competitiveness has accelerated AI development initiatives across countries. The release of national strategic plans has been accompanied by billions of dollars in investment as well as concrete policies to attract relevant talent and technology. In our previous post "How different countries view artificial intelligence", we presented a snapshot of governments' planning for AI, based on our analysis of 34 national strategic AI plans. Our post covered the description of AI plans and categorized countries based on their coverage of various related concepts. In this post, we extend details about what accounts for the variation in countries' AI plans.

The minimum cost lifted multicut approach has proven practically good performance in a wide range of applications such as image decomposition, mesh segmentation, multiple object tracking, and motion segmentation. It addresses such problems in a graph-based model, where real-valued costs are assigned to the edges between entities such that the minimum cut decomposes the graph into an optimal number of segments. Driven by a probabilistic formulation of minimum cost multicuts, we provide a measure for the uncertainties of the decisions made during the optimization. We argue that access to such uncertainties is crucial for many practical applications and conduct an evaluation by means of sparsifications on three different, widely used datasets in the context of image decomposition (BSDS-500) and motion segmentation (DAVIS2016 and FBMS59) in terms of variation of information (VI) and Rand index (RI).

Order effects occur when judgments about a hypothesis's probability given a sequence of information do not equal the probability of the same hypothesis when the information is reversed. Different experiments have been performed in the literature that supports evidence of order effects. We proposed a Bayesian update model for order effects where each question can be thought of as a mini-experiment where the respondents reflect on their beliefs. We showed that order effects appear, and they have a simple cognitive explanation: the respondent's prior belief that two questions are correlated. The proposed Bayesian model allows us to make several predictions: (1) we found certain conditions on the priors that limit the existence of order effects; (2) we show that, for our model, the QQ equality is not necessarily satisfied (due to symmetry assumptions); and (3) the proposed Bayesian model has the advantage of possessing fewer parameters than its quantum counterpart.

Australia's top spy agency will use artificial intelligence to protect against foreign hackers after receiving a $1.3 billion boost – the largest in ASIO’s 70-year history. Home Affairs Minister Karen Andrews has told Sky News recent cyber-attacks have reinforced the need to act urgently. The technology will use algorithms to decrypt and decode mass data quickly and is not designed to equip the agency for mass surveillance programs.

We consider the task of linking social media accounts that belong to the same author in an automated fashion on the basis of the content and metadata of their corresponding document streams. We focus on learning an embedding that maps variable-sized samples of user activity -- ranging from single posts to entire months of activity -- to a vector space, where samples by the same author map to nearby points. The approach does not require human-annotated data for training purposes, which allows us to leverage large amounts of social media content. The proposed model outperforms several competitive baselines under a novel evaluation framework modeled after established recognition benchmarks in other domains. Our method achieves high linking accuracy, even with small samples from accounts not seen at training time, a prerequisite for practical applications of the proposed linking framework.

Many businesses and industries nowadays rely on large quantities of time series data making time series forecasting an important research area. Global forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series have shown a huge potential in providing accurate forecasts compared with the traditional univariate forecasting models that work on isolated series. However, there are currently no comprehensive time series archives for forecasting that contain datasets of time series from similar sources available for the research community to evaluate the performance of new global forecasting algorithms over a wide variety of datasets. In this paper, we present such a comprehensive time series forecasting archive containing 20 publicly available time series datasets from varied domains, with different characteristics in terms of frequency, series lengths, and inclusion of missing values. We also characterise the datasets, and identify similarities and differences among them, by conducting a feature analysis. Furthermore, we present the performance of a set of standard baseline forecasting methods over all datasets across eight error metrics, for the benefit of researchers using the archive to benchmark their forecasting algorithms.

Reducing cycle time is a recurrent concern in the field of business process management. Depending on the process, various interventions may be triggered to reduce the cycle time of a case, for example, using a faster shipping service in an order-to-delivery process or giving a phone call to a customer to obtain missing information rather than waiting passively. Each of these interventions comes with a cost. This paper tackles the problem of determining if and when to trigger a time-reducing intervention in a way that maximizes the total net gain. The paper proposes a prescriptive process monitoring method that uses orthogonal random forest models to estimate the causal effect of triggering a time-reducing intervention for each ongoing case of a process. Based on this causal effect estimate, the method triggers interventions according to a user-defined policy. The method is evaluated on two real-life logs.

Decision lists (DLs) find a wide range of uses for classification problems in Machine Learning (ML), being implemented in a number of ML frameworks. DLs are often perceived as interpretable. However, building on recent results for decision trees (DTs), we argue that interpretability is an elusive goal for some DLs. As a result, for some uses of DLs, it will be important to compute (rigorous) explanations. Unfortunately, and in clear contrast with the case of DTs, this paper shows that computing explanations for DLs is computationally hard. Motivated by this result, the paper proposes propositional encodings for computing abductive explanations (AXps) and contrastive explanations (CXps) of DLs. Furthermore, the paper investigates the practical efficiency of a MARCO-like approach for enumerating explanations. The experimental results demonstrate that, for DLs used in practical settings, the use of SAT oracles offers a very efficient solution, and that complete enumeration of explanations is most often feasible.

Commonsense reasoning aims to incorporate sets of commonsense facts, retrieved from Commonsense Knowledge Graphs (CKG), to draw conclusion about ordinary situations. The dynamic nature of commonsense knowledge postulates models capable of performing multi-hop reasoning over new situations. This feature also results in having large-scale sparse Knowledge Graphs, where such reasoning process is needed to predict relations between new events. However, existing approaches in this area are limited by considering CKGs as a limited set of facts, thus rendering them unfit for reasoning over new unseen situations and events. In this paper, we present a neural-symbolic reasoner, which is capable of reasoning over large-scale dynamic CKGs. The logic rules for reasoning over CKGs are learned during training by our model. In addition to providing interpretable explanation, the learned logic rules help to generalise prediction to newly introduced events. Experimental results on the task of link prediction on CKGs prove the effectiveness of our model by outperforming the state-of-the-art models.