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TsSHAP: Robust model agnostic feature-based explainability for time series forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A trustworthy machine learning model should be accurate as well as explainable. Understanding why a model makes a certain decision defines the notion of explainability. While various flavors of explainability have been well-studied in supervised learning paradigms like classification and regression, literature on explainability for time series forecasting is relatively scarce. In this paper, we propose a feature-based explainability algorithm, TsSHAP, that can explain the forecast of any black-box forecasting model. The method is agnostic of the forecasting model and can provide explanations for a forecast in terms of interpretable features defined by the user a prior. The explanations are in terms of the SHAP values obtained by applying the TreeSHAP algorithm on a surrogate model that learns a mapping between the interpretable feature space and the forecast of the black-box model. Moreover, we formalize the notion of local, semi-local, and global explanations in the context of time series forecasting, which can be useful in several scenarios. We validate the efficacy and robustness of TsSHAP through extensive experiments on multiple datasets.


World in pictures: 43 jaw-dropping photos from Sony World Photography Awards finalists

FOX News

What a wonderful world for all to see. Photographers from around the globe highlighted the best of our planet as part of the open competition for the Sony World Photography Awards 2023. The World Photography Organisation announced last week the best single shots, all taken in 2022, chosen from more than 415,000 submissions from over 200 countries and territories, according to a press release. The competition was split into 10 categories: Architecture, creative, landscape, lifestyle, motion, natural world & wildlife, object, portraiture, street photography and travel. While 10 individual category winners were named -- and they will be awarded Sony digital imaging equipment and the ability to compete for the Open Photographer of the Year title -- finalists were also given honorable mentions.


Detailed images from space offer clearer picture of drought effects on plants

#artificialintelligence

"MIT is a place where dreams come true," says Cรฉsar Terrer, an assistant professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. Here at MIT, Terrer says he's given the resources needed to explore ideas he finds most exciting, and at the top of his list is climate science. In particular, he is interested in plant-soil interactions, and how the two can mitigate impacts of climate change. In 2022, Terrer received seed grant funding from the Abdul Latif Jameel Water and Food Systems Lab (J-WAFS) to produce drought monitoring systems for farmers. The project is leveraging a new generation of remote sensing devices to provide high-resolution plant water stress at regional to global scales.


Soft robotics towards sustainable development goals and climate actions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Soft robotics technology can aid in achieving United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Climate Agreement through development of autonomous, environmentally responsible machines powered by renewable energy. By utilizing soft robotics, we can mitigate the detrimental effects of climate change on human society and the natural world through fostering adaptation, restoration, and remediation. Moreover, the implementation of soft robotics can lead to groundbreaking discoveries in material science, biology, control systems, energy efficiency, and sustainable manufacturing processes. However, to achieve these goals, we need further improvements in understanding biological principles at the basis of embodied and physical intelligence, environment-friendly materials, and energy-saving strategies to design and manufacture self-piloting and field-ready soft robots. This paper provides insights on how soft robotics can address the pressing issue of environmental sustainability. Sustainable manufacturing of soft robots at a large scale, exploring the potential of biodegradable and bioinspired materials, and integrating onboard renewable energy sources to promote autonomy and intelligence are some of the urgent challenges of this field that we discuss in this paper. Specifically, we will present field-ready soft robots that address targeted productive applications in urban farming, healthcare, land and ocean preservation, disaster remediation, and clean and affordable energy, thus supporting some of the SDGs. By embracing soft robotics as a solution, we can concretely support economic growth and sustainable industry, drive solutions for environment protection and clean energy, and improve overall health and well-being.


AI Tool for Exploring How Economic Activities Impact Local Ecosystems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present an AI-based ecosystem simulator that uses three-dimensional models of the terrain and animal models controlled by deep reinforcement learning. The simulations take place in a game engine environment, which enables continuous visual observation of the ecosystem model. The terrain models are generated from geographic data with altitudes and land cover type. The animal models combine three-dimensional conformation models with animation schemes and decision-making mechanisms trained with deep reinforcement learning in increasingly complex environments (curriculum learning). We show how AI tools of this kind can be used for modeling the development of specific ecosystems with and without different forms of economic activities. In particular, we show how they might be used for modeling local biodiversity effects of land cover change, exploitation of natural resources, pollution, invasive species, and climate change.


Fine-tuning ClimateBert transformer with ClimaText for the disclosure analysis of climate-related financial risks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In recent years there has been a growing demand from financial agents, especially from particular and institutional investors, for companies to report on climate-related financial risks. A vast amount of information, in text format, can be expected to be disclosed in the short term by firms in order to identify these types of risks in their financial and non financial reports, particularly in response to the growing regulation that is being passed on the matter. To this end, this paper applies state-of-the-art NLP techniques to achieve the detection of climate change in text corpora. We use transfer learning to fine-tune two transformer models, BERT and ClimateBert -a recently published DistillRoBERTa-based model that has been specifically tailored for climate text classification-. These two algorithms are based on the transformer architecture which enables learning the contextual relationships between words in a text. We carry out the fine-tuning process of both models on the novel Clima-Text database, consisting of data collected from Wikipedia, 10K Files Reports and web-based claims. Our text classification model obtained from the ClimateBert fine-tuning process on ClimaText, outperforms the models created with BERT and the current state-of-the-art transformer in this particular problem. Our study is the first one to implement on the ClimaText database the recently published ClimateBert algorithm. Based on our results, it can be said that ClimateBert fine-tuned on ClimaText is an outstanding tool within the NLP pre-trained transformer models that may and should be used by investors, institutional agents and companies themselves to monitor the disclosure of climate risk in financial reports. In addition, our transfer learning methodology is cheap in computational terms, thus allowing any organization to perform it.


Synthetic Health-related Longitudinal Data with Mixed-type Variables Generated using Diffusion Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a novel approach to simulating electronic health records (EHRs) using diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs). Specifically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of DPMs in synthesising longitudinal EHRs that capture mixed-type variables, including numeric, binary, and categorical variables. To our knowledge, this represents the first use of DPMs for this purpose. We compared our DPM-simulated datasets to previous state-of-the-art results based on generative adversarial networks (GANs) for two clinical applications: acute hypotension and human immunodeficiency virus (ART for HIV). Given the lack of similar previous studies in DPMs, a core component of our work involves exploring the advantages and caveats of employing DPMs across a wide range of aspects. In addition to assessing the realism of the synthetic datasets, we also trained reinforcement learning (RL) agents on the synthetic data to evaluate their utility for supporting the development of downstream machine learning models. Finally, we estimated that our DPM-simulated datasets are secure and posed a low patient exposure risk for public access.


Data Augmentation For Label Enhancement

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Label distribution (LD) uses the description degree to describe instances, which provides more fine-grained supervision information when learning with label ambiguity. Nevertheless, LD is unavailable in many real-world applications. To obtain LD, label enhancement (LE) has emerged to recover LD from logical label. Existing LE approach have the following problems: (\textbf{i}) They use logical label to train mappings to LD, but the supervision information is too loose, which can lead to inaccurate model prediction; (\textbf{ii}) They ignore feature redundancy and use the collected features directly. To solve (\textbf{i}), we use the topology of the feature space to generate more accurate label-confidence. To solve (\textbf{ii}), we proposed a novel supervised LE dimensionality reduction approach, which projects the original data into a lower dimensional feature space. Combining the above two, we obtain the augmented data for LE. Further, we proposed a novel nonlinear LE model based on the label-confidence and reduced features. Extensive experiments on 12 real-world datasets are conducted and the results show that our method consistently outperforms the other five comparing approaches.


Assessor-Guided Learning for Continual Environments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper proposes an assessor-guided learning strategy for continual learning where an assessor guides the learning process of a base learner by controlling the direction and pace of the learning process thus allowing an efficient learning of new environments while protecting against the catastrophic interference problem. The assessor is trained in a meta-learning manner with a meta-objective to boost the learning process of the base learner. It performs a soft-weighting mechanism of every sample accepting positive samples while rejecting negative samples. The training objective of a base learner is to minimize a meta-weighted combination of the cross entropy loss function, the dark experience replay (DER) loss function and the knowledge distillation loss function whose interactions are controlled in such a way to attain an improved performance. A compensated over-sampling (COS) strategy is developed to overcome the class imbalanced problem of the episodic memory due to limited memory budgets. Our approach, Assessor-Guided Learning Approach (AGLA), has been evaluated in the class-incremental and task-incremental learning problems. AGLA achieves improved performances compared to its competitors while the theoretical analysis of the COS strategy is offered. Source codes of AGLA, baseline algorithms and experimental logs are shared publicly in \url{https://github.com/anwarmaxsum/AGLA} for further study.


Referring Image Matting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Different from conventional image matting, which either requires user-defined scribbles/trimap to extract a specific foreground object or directly extracts all the foreground objects in the image indiscriminately, we introduce a new task named Referring Image Matting (RIM) in this paper, which aims to extract the meticulous alpha matte of the specific object that best matches the given natural language description, thus enabling a more natural and simpler instruction for image matting. First, we establish a large-scale challenging dataset RefMatte by designing a comprehensive image composition and expression generation engine to automatically produce high-quality images along with diverse text attributes based on public datasets. RefMatte consists of 230 object categories, 47,500 images, 118,749 expression-region entities, and 474,996 expressions. Additionally, we construct a real-world test set with 100 high-resolution natural images and manually annotate complex phrases to evaluate the out-of-domain generalization abilities of RIM methods. Furthermore, we present a novel baseline method CLIPMat for RIM, including a context-embedded prompt, a text-driven semantic pop-up, and a multi-level details extractor. Extensive experiments on RefMatte in both keyword and expression settings validate the superiority of CLIPMat over representative methods. We hope this work could provide novel insights into image matting and encourage more follow-up studies. The dataset, code and models are available at https://github.com/JizhiziLi/RIM.