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Pairwise Ranking Losses of Click-Through Rates Prediction for Welfare Maximization in Ad Auctions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the design of loss functions for click-through rates (CTR) to optimize (social) welfare in advertising auctions. Existing works either only focus on CTR predictions without consideration of business objectives (e.g., welfare) in auctions or assume that the distribution over the participants' expected cost-per-impression (eCPM) is known a priori, then use various additional assumptions on the parametric form of the distribution to derive loss functions for predicting CTRs. In this work, we bring back the welfare objectives of ad auctions into CTR predictions and propose a novel weighted rankloss to train the CTR model. Compared to existing literature, our approach provides a provable guarantee on welfare but without assumptions on the eCPMs' distribution while also avoiding the intractability of naively applying existing learning-to-rank methods. Further, we propose a theoretically justifiable technique for calibrating the losses using labels generated from a teacher network, only assuming that the teacher network has bounded $\ell_2$ generalization error. Finally, we demonstrate the advantages of the proposed loss on synthetic and real-world data.


Pre-Deployment Testing of Low Speed, Urban Road Autonomous Driving in a Simulated Environment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Low speed autonomous shuttles emulating SAE Level L4 automated driving using human driver assisted autonomy have been operating in geo-fenced areas in several cities in the US and the rest of the world. These autonomous vehicles (AV) are operated by small to mid-sized technology companies that do not have the resources of automotive OEMs for carrying out exhaustive, comprehensive testing of their AV technology solutions before public road deployment. Due to the low speed of operation and hence not operating on roads containing highways, the base vehicles of these AV shuttles are not required to go through rigorous certification tests. The way the driver assisted AV technology is tested and allowed for public road deployment is continuously evolving but is not standardized and shows differences between the different states where these vehicles operate. Currently, AVs and AV shuttles deployed on public roads are using these deployments for testing and improving their technology. However, this is not the right approach. Safe and extensive testing in a lab and controlled test environment including Model-in-the-Loop (MiL), Hardware-in-the-Loop (HiL) and Autonomous-Vehicle-in-the-Loop (AViL) testing should be the prerequisite to such public road deployments. This paper presents three dimensional virtual modeling of an AV shuttle deployment site and simulation testing in this virtual environment. We have two deployment sites in Columbus of these AV shuttles through the Department of Transportation funded Smart City Challenge project named Smart Columbus. The Linden residential area AV shuttle deployment site of Smart Columbus is used as the specific example for illustrating the AV testing method proposed in this paper.


Federated Graph Learning for Low Probability of Detection in Wireless Ad-Hoc Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Low probability of detection (LPD) has recently emerged as a means to enhance the privacy and security of wireless networks. Unlike existing wireless security techniques, LPD measures aim to conceal the entire existence of wireless communication instead of safeguarding the information transmitted from users. Motivated by LPD communication, in this paper, we study a privacy-preserving and distributed framework based on graph neural networks to minimise the detectability of a wireless ad-hoc network as a whole and predict an optimal communication region for each node in the wireless network, allowing them to communicate while remaining undetected from external actors. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in terms of two performance measures, i.e., mean absolute error and median absolute error.


Minding Language Models' (Lack of) Theory of Mind: A Plug-and-Play Multi-Character Belief Tracker

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Theory of Mind (ToM)$\unicode{x2014}$the ability to reason about the mental states of other people$\unicode{x2014}$is a key element of our social intelligence. Yet, despite their ever more impressive performance, large-scale neural language models still lack basic theory of mind capabilities out-of-the-box. We posit that simply scaling up models will not imbue them with theory of mind due to the inherently symbolic and implicit nature of the phenomenon, and instead investigate an alternative: can we design a decoding-time algorithm that enhances theory of mind of off-the-shelf neural language models without explicit supervision? We present SymbolicToM, a plug-and-play approach to reason about the belief states of multiple characters in reading comprehension tasks via explicit symbolic representation. More concretely, our approach tracks each entity's beliefs, their estimation of other entities' beliefs, and higher-order levels of reasoning, all through graphical representations, allowing for more precise and interpretable reasoning than previous approaches. Empirical results on the well-known ToMi benchmark (Le et al., 2019) demonstrate that SymbolicToM dramatically enhances off-the-shelf neural networks' theory of mind in a zero-shot setting while showing robust out-of-distribution performance compared to supervised baselines. Our work also reveals spurious patterns in existing theory of mind benchmarks, emphasizing the importance of out-of-distribution evaluation and methods that do not overfit a particular dataset.


Adversarial learning of neural user simulators for dialogue policy optimisation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement learning based dialogue policies are typically trained in interaction with a user simulator. To obtain an effective and robust policy, this simulator should generate user behaviour that is both realistic and varied. Current data-driven simulators are trained to accurately model the user behaviour in a dialogue corpus. We propose an alternative method using adversarial learning, with the aim to simulate realistic user behaviour with more variation. We train and evaluate several simulators on a corpus of restaurant search dialogues, and then use them to train dialogue system policies. In policy cross-evaluation experiments we demonstrate that an adversarially trained simulator produces policies with 8.3% higher success rate than those trained with a maximum likelihood simulator. Subjective results from a crowd-sourced dialogue system user evaluation confirm the effectiveness of adversarially training user simulators.


Zero and Few-shot Semantic Parsing with Ambiguous Inputs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite the ubiquity of ambiguity in natural language, it is often ignored or deliberately removed in semantic parsing tasks, which generally assume that a given surface form has only one correct logical form. We attempt to address this shortcoming by introducing AmP, a framework, dataset, and challenge for parsing with linguistic ambiguity. We define templates and generate data for five well-documented linguistic ambiguities. Using AmP, we investigate how several few-shot semantic parsing systems handle ambiguity, introducing three new metrics. We find that large pre-trained models perform poorly at capturing the distribution of possible meanings without deliberate instruction. However, models are able to capture distribution well when ambiguity is attested in their inputs. These results motivate a call for ambiguity to be explicitly included in semantic parsing, and promotes considering the distribution of possible outputs when evaluating semantic parsing systems.


An End-to-End Time Series Model for Simultaneous Imputation and Forecast

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Learning the complex structure of multivariate time series has been one of the major interests across many application domains, including economics, transportation, manufacturing [Fortuin et al., 2020, Wu et al., 2021, Li et al., 2019, Zhou et al., 2021]. While there has been much progress in the data-driven learning and processing complex time series, it still remains as a challenging topic, in particular, when the data is corrupted [Cao et al., 2018, Kreindler and Lumsden, 2006, Yoon et al., 2018, Du et al., 2022]. In this paper, we consider the forecasting task which aims to make prediction of future values using historical data that may contain missing values. In addition, for many industrial problems, the time series features can be in two categories: auxiliary features (X) that provide information about the state of a system and target variables (Y) that depends on the auxiliary features and may convey valuable information. For example, in the operation of a chemical reactor, the auxiliary features include temperature, pressure and concentration of chemicals observed through a sensor network, while the target variable may include the quality of the material and throughput. We are interested in the time series problem where the data set consists of X and Y. In general, X is more readily available, as it is obtained from a sensor network, while Y may be temporally sparse since it may be expensive or difficult to collect the data. This so-called soft sensor problem has been of interest in many industrial applications [Shardt et al., 2015, Yuan et al., 2021].


Differentiable Tree Operations Promote Compositional Generalization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the context of structure-to-structure transformation tasks, learning sequences of discrete symbolic operations poses significant challenges due to their non-differentiability. To facilitate the learning of these symbolic sequences, we introduce a differentiable tree interpreter that compiles high-level symbolic tree operations into subsymbolic matrix operations on tensors. We present a novel Differentiable Tree Machine (DTM) architecture that integrates our interpreter with an external memory and an agent that learns to sequentially select tree operations to execute the target transformation in an end-to-end manner. With respect to out-of-distribution compositional generalization on synthetic semantic parsing and language generation tasks, DTM achieves 100% while existing baselines such as Transformer, Tree Transformer, LSTM, and Tree2Tree LSTM achieve less than 30%. DTM remains highly interpretable in addition to its perfect performance.


Spreads in Effective Learning Rates: The Perils of Batch Normalization During Early Training

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Excursions in gradient magnitude pose a persistent challenge when training deep networks. In this paper, we study the early training phases of deep normalized ReLU networks, accounting for the induced scale invariance by examining effective learning rates (LRs). Starting with the well-known fact that batch normalization (BN) leads to exponentially exploding gradients at initialization, we develop an ODE-based model to describe early training dynamics. Our model predicts that in the gradient flow, effective LRs will eventually equalize, aligning with empirical findings on warm-up training. Using large LRs is analogous to applying an explicit solver to a stiff non-linear ODE, causing overshooting and vanishing gradients in lower layers after the first step. Achieving overall balance demands careful tuning of LRs, depth, and (optionally) momentum. Our model predicts the formation of spreads in effective LRs, consistent with empirical measurements. Moreover, we observe that large spreads in effective LRs result in training issues concerning accuracy, indicating the importance of controlling these dynamics. To further support a causal relationship, we implement a simple scheduling scheme prescribing uniform effective LRs across layers and confirm accuracy benefits.


A Call for Standardization and Validation of Text Style Transfer Evaluation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Text Style Transfer (TST) evaluation is, in practice, inconsistent. Therefore, we conduct a meta-analysis on human and automated TST evaluation and experimentation that thoroughly examines existing literature in the field. The meta-analysis reveals a substantial standardization gap in human and automated evaluation. In addition, we also find a validation gap: only few automated metrics have been validated using human experiments. To this end, we thoroughly scrutinize both the standardization and validation gap and reveal the resulting pitfalls. This work also paves the way to close the standardization and validation gap in TST evaluation by calling out requirements to be met by future research.