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Towards Clinical Prediction with Transparency: An Explainable AI Approach to Survival Modelling in Residential Aged Care

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Background: Accurate survival time estimates aid end-of-life medical decision-making. Objectives: Develop an interpretable survival model for elderly residential aged care residents using advanced machine learning. Setting: A major Australasian residential aged care provider. Participants: Residents aged 65+ admitted for long-term care from July 2017 to August 2023. Sample size: 11,944 residents across 40 facilities. Predictors: Factors include age, gender, health status, co-morbidities, cognitive function, mood, nutrition, mobility, smoking, sleep, skin integrity, and continence. Outcome: Probability of survival post-admission, specifically calibrated for 6-month survival estimates. Statistical Analysis: Tested CoxPH, EN, RR, Lasso, GB, XGB, and RF models in 20 experiments with a 90/10 train/test split. Evaluated accuracy using C-index, Harrell's C-index, dynamic AUROC, IBS, and calibrated ROC. Chose XGB for its performance and calibrated it for 1, 3, 6, and 12-month predictions using Platt scaling. Employed SHAP values to analyze predictor impacts. Results: GB, XGB, and RF models showed the highest C-Index values (0.714, 0.712, 0.712). The optimal XGB model demonstrated a 6-month survival prediction AUROC of 0.746 (95% CI 0.744-0.749). Key mortality predictors include age, male gender, mobility, health status, pressure ulcer risk, and appetite. Conclusions: The study successfully applies machine learning to create a survival model for aged care, aligning with clinical insights on mortality risk factors and enhancing model interpretability and clinical utility through explainable AI.


RDF Stream Taxonomy: Systematizing RDF Stream Types in Research and Practice

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Over the years, RDF streaming was explored in research and practice from many angles, resulting in a wide range of RDF stream definitions. This variety presents a major challenge in discussing and integrating streaming solutions, due to the lack of a common language. This work attempts to address this critical research gap, by systematizing RDF stream types present in the literature in a novel taxonomy. The proposed RDF Stream Taxonomy (RDF-STaX) is embodied in an OWL 2 DL ontology that follows the FAIR principles, making it readily applicable in practice. Extensive documentation and additional resources are provided, to foster the adoption of the ontology. Two realized use cases are presented, demonstrating the usefulness of the resource in discussing research works and annotating streaming datasets. Another result of this contribution is the novel nanopublications dataset, which serves as a collaborative, living state-of-the-art review of RDF streaming. The aim of RDF-STaX is to address a real need of the community for a better way to systematize and describe RDF streams. The resource is designed to help drive innovation in RDF streaming, by fostering scientific discussion, cooperation, and tool interoperability.


\'UFAL CorPipe at CRAC 2023: Larger Context Improves Multilingual Coreference Resolution

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present CorPipe, the winning entry to the CRAC 2023 Shared Task on Multilingual Coreference Resolution. Our system is an improved version of our earlier multilingual coreference pipeline, and it surpasses other participants by a large margin of 4.5 percent points. CorPipe first performs mention detection, followed by coreference linking via an antecedent-maximization approach on the retrieved spans. Both tasks are trained jointly on all available corpora using a shared pretrained language model. Our main improvements comprise inputs larger than 512 subwords and changing the mention decoding to support ensembling. The source code is available at https://github.com/ufal/crac2023-corpipe.


TSGBench: Time Series Generation Benchmark

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Synthetic Time Series Generation (TSG) is crucial in a range of applications, including data augmentation, anomaly detection, and privacy preservation. Although significant strides have been made in this field, existing methods exhibit three key limitations: (1) They often benchmark against similar model types, constraining a holistic view of performance capabilities. (2) The use of specialized synthetic and private datasets introduces biases and hampers generalizability. (3) Ambiguous evaluation measures, often tied to custom networks or downstream tasks, hinder consistent and fair comparison. To overcome these limitations, we introduce \textsf{TSGBench}, the inaugural Time Series Generation Benchmark, designed for a unified and comprehensive assessment of TSG methods. It comprises three modules: (1) a curated collection of publicly available, real-world datasets tailored for TSG, together with a standardized preprocessing pipeline; (2) a comprehensive evaluation measures suite including vanilla measures, new distance-based assessments, and visualization tools; (3) a pioneering generalization test rooted in Domain Adaptation (DA), compatible with all methods. We have conducted comprehensive experiments using \textsf{TSGBench} across a spectrum of ten real-world datasets from diverse domains, utilizing ten advanced TSG methods and twelve evaluation measures. The results highlight the reliability and efficacy of \textsf{TSGBench} in evaluating TSG methods. Crucially, \textsf{TSGBench} delivers a statistical analysis of the performance rankings of these methods, illuminating their varying performance across different datasets and measures and offering nuanced insights into the effectiveness of each method.


Cycle Consistency Driven Object Discovery

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Developing deep learning models that effectively learn object-centric representations, akin to human cognition, remains a challenging task. Existing approaches facilitate object discovery by representing objects as fixed-size vectors, called ``slots'' or ``object files''. While these approaches have shown promise in certain scenarios, they still exhibit certain limitations. First, they rely on architectural priors which can be unreliable and usually require meticulous engineering to identify the correct objects. Second, there has been a notable gap in investigating the practical utility of these representations in downstream tasks. To address the first limitation, we introduce a method that explicitly optimizes the constraint that each object in a scene should be associated with a distinct slot. We formalize this constraint by introducing consistency objectives which are cyclic in nature. By integrating these consistency objectives into various existing slot-based object-centric methods, we showcase substantial improvements in object-discovery performance. These enhancements consistently hold true across both synthetic and real-world scenes, underscoring the effectiveness and adaptability of the proposed approach. To tackle the second limitation, we apply the learned object-centric representations from the proposed method to two downstream reinforcement learning tasks, demonstrating considerable performance enhancements compared to conventional slot-based and monolithic representation learning methods. Our results suggest that the proposed approach not only improves object discovery, but also provides richer features for downstream tasks.


Conversational Semantic Parsing using Dynamic Context Graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper we consider the task of conversational semantic parsing over general purpose knowledge graphs (KGs) with millions of entities, and thousands of relation-types. We focus on models which are capable of interactively mapping user utterances into executable logical forms (e.g., Sparql) in the context of the conversational history. Our key idea is to represent information about an utterance and its context via a subgraph which is created dynamically, i.e., the number of nodes varies per utterance. Rather than treating the subgraph as a sequence, we exploit its underlying structure and encode it with a graph neural network which further allows us to represent a large number of (unseen) nodes. Experimental results show that dynamic context modeling is superior to static approaches, delivering performance improvements across the board (i.e., for simple and complex questions). Our results further confirm that modeling the structure of context is better at processing discourse information, (i.e., at handling ellipsis and resolving coreference) and longer interactions.


Can Large Language Models Transform Computational Social Science?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) are capable of successfully performing many language processing tasks zero-shot (without training data). If zero-shot LLMs can also reliably classify and explain social phenomena like persuasiveness and political ideology, then LLMs could augment the Computational Social Science (CSS) pipeline in important ways. This work provides a road map for using LLMs as CSS tools. Towards this end, we contribute a set of prompting best practices and an extensive evaluation pipeline to measure the zero-shot performance of 13 language models on 25 representative English CSS benchmarks. On taxonomic labeling tasks (classification), LLMs fail to outperform the best fine-tuned models but still achieve fair levels of agreement with humans. On free-form coding tasks (generation), LLMs produce explanations that often exceed the quality of crowdworkers' gold references. We conclude that the performance of today's LLMs can augment the CSS research pipeline in two ways: (1) serving as zero-shot data annotators on human annotation teams, and (2) bootstrapping challenging creative generation tasks (e.g., explaining the underlying attributes of a text). In summary, LLMs are posed to meaningfully participate in} social science analysis in partnership with humans.


Sem@$K$: Is my knowledge graph embedding model semantic-aware?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Using knowledge graph embedding models (KGEMs) is a popular approach for predicting links in knowledge graphs (KGs). Traditionally, the performance of KGEMs for link prediction is assessed using rank-based metrics, which evaluate their ability to give high scores to ground-truth entities. However, the literature claims that the KGEM evaluation procedure would benefit from adding supplementary dimensions to assess. That is why, in this paper, we extend our previously introduced metric Sem@K that measures the capability of models to predict valid entities w.r.t. domain and range constraints. In particular, we consider a broad range of KGs and take their respective characteristics into account to propose different versions of Sem@K. We also perform an extensive study to qualify the abilities of KGEMs as measured by our metric. Our experiments show that Sem@K provides a new perspective on KGEM quality. Its joint analysis with rank-based metrics offers different conclusions on the predictive power of models. Regarding Sem@K, some KGEMs are inherently better than others, but this semantic superiority is not indicative of their performance w.r.t. rank-based metrics. In this work, we generalize conclusions about the relative performance of KGEMs w.r.t. rank-based and semantic-oriented metrics at the level of families of models. The joint analysis of the aforementioned metrics gives more insight into the peculiarities of each model. This work paves the way for a more comprehensive evaluation of KGEM adequacy for specific downstream tasks.


Constrained Few-Shot Learning: Human-Like Low Sample Complexity Learning and Non-Episodic Text Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Few-shot learning (FSL) is an emergent paradigm of learning that attempts to learn to reason with low sample complexity to mimic the way humans learn, generalise and extrapolate from only a few seen examples. While FSL attempts to mimic these human characteristics, fundamentally, the task of FSL as conventionally formulated using meta-learning with episodic-based training does not in actuality align with how humans acquire and reason with knowledge. FSL with episodic training, while only requires $K$ instances of each test class, still requires a large number of labelled training instances from disjoint classes. In this paper, we introduce the novel task of constrained few-shot learning (CFSL), a special case of FSL where $M$, the number of instances of each training class is constrained such that $M \leq K$ thus applying a similar restriction during FSL training and test. We propose a method for CFSL leveraging Cat2Vec using a novel categorical contrastive loss inspired by cognitive theories such as fuzzy trace theory and prototype theory.


If your data distribution shifts, use self-learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We demonstrate that self-learning techniques like entropy minimization and pseudo-labeling are simple and effective at improving performance of a deployed computer vision model under systematic domain shifts. We conduct a wide range of large-scale experiments and show consistent improvements irrespective of the model architecture, the pre-training technique or the type of distribution shift. At the same time, self-learning is simple to use in practice because it does not require knowledge or access to the original training data or scheme, is robust to hyperparameter choices, is straight-forward to implement and requires only a few adaptation epochs. This makes self-learning techniques highly attractive for any practitioner who applies machine learning algorithms in the real world.