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Large Language Models (LLMs) have the capacity to store and recall facts.

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Although persona prompting in large language models appears to trigger different styles of generated text, it is unclear whether these translate into measurable behavioral differences, much less whether they affect decision-making in an adversarial strategic environment that we provide as open-source. We investigate the impact of persona prompting on strategic performance in PERIL, a world-domination board game. Specifically, we compare the effectiveness of persona-derived heuristic strategies to those chosen manually. Our findings reveal that certain personas associated with strategic thinking improve game performance, but only when a mediator is used to translate personas into heuristic values. We introduce this mediator as a structured translation process, inspired by exploratory factor analysis, that maps LLM-generated inventory responses into heuristics. Results indicate our method enhances heuristic reliability and face validity compared to directly inferred heuristics, allowing us to better study the effect of persona types on decision making. These insights advance our understanding of how persona prompting influences LLM-based decision-making and propose a heuristic generation method that applies psychometric principles to LLMs.

Trustworthy machine learning in healthcare requires strong predictive performance, fairness, and explanations. While it is known that improving fairness can affect predictive performance, little is known about how fairness improvements influence explainability, an essential ingredient for clinical trust. Clinicians may hesitate to rely on a model whose explanations shift after fairness constraints are applied. In this study, we examine how enhancing fairness through bias mitigation techniques reshapes Shapley-based feature rankings. We quantify changes in feature importance rankings after applying fairness constraints across three datasets: pediatric urinary tract infection risk, direct anticoagulant bleeding risk, and recidivism risk. We also evaluate multiple model classes on the stability of Shapley-based rankings. We find that increasing model fairness across racial subgroups can significantly alter feature importance rankings, sometimes in different ways across groups. These results highlight the need to jointly consider accuracy, fairness, and explainability in model assessment rather than in isolation.

This work presents the development and evaluation of an NLP-enabled probabilistic classifier designed to estimate the probability of technical and regulatory success (pTRS) for clinical trials in the field of neuroscience. While pharmaceutical R&D is plagued by high attrition rates and enormous costs, particularly within neuroscience, where success rates are below 10%, timely identification of promising programs can streamline resource allocation and reduce financial risk. Leveraging data from the ClinicalTrials.gov database and success labels from the recently developed Clinical Trial Outcome dataset, the classifier extracts text-based clinical trial features using statistical NLP techniques. These features were integrated into several non-LLM frameworks (logistic regression, gradient boosting, and random forest) to generate calibrated probability scores. Model performance was assessed on a retrospective dataset of 101,145 completed clinical trials spanning 1976-2024, achieving an overall ROC-AUC of 0.64. An LLM-based predictive model was then built using BioBERT, a domain-specific language representation encoder. The BioBERT-based model achieved an overall ROC-AUC of 0.74 and a Brier Score of 0.185, indicating its predictions had, on average, 40% less squared error than would be observed using industry benchmarks. The BioBERT-based model also made trial outcome predictions that were superior to benchmark values 70% of the time overall. By integrating NLP-driven insights into drug development decision-making, this work aims to enhance strategic planning and optimize investment allocation in neuroscience programs.