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Distillation and Interpretability of Ensemble Forecasts of ENSO Phase using Entropic Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper introduces a distillation framework for an ensemble of entropy-optimal Sparse Probabilistic Approximation (eSPA) models, trained exclusively on satellite-era observational and reanalysis data to predict ENSO phase up to 24 months in advance. While eSPA ensembles yield state-of-the-art forecast skill, they are harder to interpret than individual eSPA models. We show how to compress the ensemble into a compact set of "distilled" models by aggregating the structure of only those ensemble members that make correct predictions. This process yields a single, diagnostically tractable model for each forecast lead time that preserves forecast performance while also enabling diagnostics that are impractical to implement on the full ensemble. An analysis of the regime persistence of the distilled model "superclusters", as well as cross-lead clustering consistency, shows that the discretised system accurately captures the spatiotemporal dynamics of ENSO. By considering the effective dimension of the feature importance vectors, the complexity of the input space required for correct ENSO phase prediction is shown to peak when forecasts must cross the boreal spring predictability barrier. Spatial importance maps derived from the feature importance vectors are introduced to identify where predictive information resides in each field and are shown to include known physical precursors at certain lead times. Case studies of key events are also presented, showing how fields reconstructed from distilled model centroids trace the evolution from extratropical and inter-basin precursors to the mature ENSO state. Overall, the distillation framework enables a rigorous investigation of long-range ENSO predictability that complements real-time data-driven operational forecasts.


PlantPal: Leveraging Precision Agriculture Robots to Facilitate Remote Engagement in Urban Gardening

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Urban gardening is widely recognized for its numerous health and environmental benefits. However, the lack of suitable garden spaces, demanding daily schedules and limited gardening expertise present major roadblocks for citizens looking to engage in urban gardening. While prior research has explored smart home solutions to support urban gardeners, these approaches currently do not fully address these practical barriers. In this paper, we present PlantPal, a system that enables the cultivation of garden spaces irrespective of one's location, expertise level, or time constraints. PlantPal enables the shared operation of a precision agriculture robot (PAR) that is equipped with garden tools and a multi-camera system. Insights from a 3-week deployment (N=18) indicate that PlantPal facilitated the integration of gardening tasks into daily routines, fostered a sense of connection with one's field, and provided an engaging experience despite the remote setting. We contribute design considerations for future robot-assisted urban gardening concepts.


Sequential Monte Carlo for Graphical Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a new framework for how to use sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms for inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGM). Via a sequential decomposition of the PGM we find a sequence of auxiliary distributions defined on a monotonically increasing sequence of probability spaces. By targeting these auxiliary distributions using SMC we are able to approximate the full joint distribution defined by the PGM. One of the key merits of the SMC sampler is that it provides an unbiased estimate of the partition function of the model. We also show how it can be used within a particle Markov chain Monte Carlo framework in order to construct high-dimensional block-sampling algorithms for general PGMs.


Land Surface Temperature Super-Resolution with a Scale-Invariance-Free Neural Approach: Application to MODIS

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Due to the trade-off between the temporal and spatial resolution of thermal spaceborne sensors, super-resolution methods have been developed to provide fine-scale Land SurfaceTemperature (LST) maps. Most of them are trained at low resolution but applied at fine resolution, and so they require a scale-invariance hypothesis that is not always adapted. Themain contribution of this work is the introduction of a Scale-Invariance-Free approach for training Neural Network (NN) models, and the implementation of two NN models, calledScale-Invariance-Free Convolutional Neural Network for Super-Resolution (SIF-CNN-SR) for the super-resolution of MODIS LST products. The Scale-Invariance-Free approach consists ontraining the models in order to provide LST maps at high spatial resolution that recover the initial LST when they are degraded at low resolution and that contain fine-scale texturesinformed by the high resolution NDVI. The second contribution of this work is the release of a test database with ASTER LST images concomitant with MODIS ones that can be usedfor evaluation of super-resolution algorithms. We compare the two proposed models, SIF-CNN-SR1 and SIF-CNN-SR2, with four state-of-the-art methods, Bicubic, DMS, ATPRK, Tsharp,and a CNN sharing the same architecture as SIF-CNN-SR but trained under the scale-invariance hypothesis. We show that SIF-CNN-SR1 outperforms the state-of-the-art methods and the other two CNN models as evaluated with LPIPS and Fourier space metrics focusing on the analysis of textures. These results and the available ASTER-MODIS database for evaluation are promising for future studies on super-resolution of LST.


Machine Learning-based Android Intrusion Detection System

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The android operating system is being installed in most of the smart devices. The introduction of intrusions in such operating systems is rising at a tremendous rate. With the introduction of such malicious data streams, the smart devices are being subjected to various attacks like Phishing, Spyware, SMS Fraud, Bots and Banking-Trojans and many such. The application of machine learning classification algorithms for the security of android APK files is used in this paper. Each apk data stream was marked to be either malicious or non malicious on the basis of different parameters. The machine learning classification techniques are then used to classify whether the newly installed applications' signature falls within the malicious or non-malicious domain. If it falls within the malicious category, appropriate action can be taken, and the Android operating system can be shielded against illegal activities.


CGLearn: Consistent Gradient-Based Learning for Out-of-Distribution Generalization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Improving generalization and achieving highly predictive, robust machine learning models necessitates learning the underlying causal structure of the variables of interest. A prominent and effective method for this is learning invariant predictors across multiple environments. In this work, we introduce a simple yet powerful approach, CGLearn, which relies on the agreement of gradients across various environments. This agreement serves as a powerful indication of reliable features, while disagreement suggests less reliability due to potential differences in underlying causal mechanisms. Our proposed method demonstrates superior performance compared to state-of-the-art methods in both linear and nonlinear settings across various regression and classification tasks. CGLearn shows robust applicability even in the absence of separate environments by exploiting invariance across different subsamples of observational data. Comprehensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets highlight its effectiveness in diverse scenarios. Our findings underscore the importance of leveraging gradient agreement for learning causal invariance, providing a significant step forward in the field of robust machine learning. The source code of the linear and nonlinear implementation of CGLearn is open-source and available at: https://github.com/hasanjawad001/CGLearn.


From Federated Learning to Quantum Federated Learning for Space-Air-Ground Integrated Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

6G wireless networks are expected to provide seamless and data-based connections that cover space-air-ground and underwater networks. As a core partition of future 6G networks, Space-Air-Ground Integrated Networks (SAGIN) have been envisioned to provide countless real-time intelligent applications. To realize this, promoting AI techniques into SAGIN is an inevitable trend. Due to the distributed and heterogeneous architecture of SAGIN, federated learning (FL) and then quantum FL are emerging AI model training techniques for enabling future privacy-enhanced and computation-efficient SAGINs. In this work, we explore the vision of using FL/QFL in SAGINs. We present a few representative applications enabled by the integration of FL and QFL in SAGINs. A case study of QFL over UAV networks is also given, showing the merit of quantum-enabled training approach over the conventional FL benchmark. Research challenges along with standardization for QFL adoption in future SAGINs are also highlighted.


Integrating Natural Language Prompting Tasks in Introductory Programming Courses

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Introductory programming courses often emphasize mastering syntax and basic constructs before progressing to more complex and interesting programs. This bottom-up approach can be frustrating for novices, shifting the focus away from problem solving and potentially making computing less appealing to a broad range of students. The rise of generative AI for code production could partially address these issues by fostering new skills via interaction with AI models, including constructing high-level prompts and evaluating code that is automatically generated. In this experience report, we explore the inclusion of two prompt-focused activities in an introductory course, implemented across four labs in a six-week module. The first requires students to solve computational problems by writing natural language prompts, emphasizing problem-solving over syntax. The second involves students crafting prompts to generate code equivalent to provided fragments, to foster an understanding of the relationship between prompts and code. Most of the students in the course had reported finding programming difficult to learn, often citing frustrations with syntax and debugging. We found that self-reported difficulty with learning programming had a strong inverse relationship with performance on traditional programming assessments such as tests and projects, as expected. However, performance on the natural language tasks was less strongly related to self-reported difficulty, suggesting they may target different skills. Learning how to communicate with AI coding models is becoming an important skill, and natural language prompting tasks may appeal to a broad range of students.


Causal Inference with Large Language Model: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Causal inference has been a pivotal challenge across diverse domains such as medicine and economics, demanding a complicated integration of human knowledge, mathematical reasoning, and data mining capabilities. Recent advancements in natural language processing (NLP), particularly with the advent of large language models (LLMs), have introduced promising opportunities for traditional causal inference tasks. This paper reviews recent progress in applying LLMs to causal inference, encompassing various tasks spanning different levels of causation. We summarize the main causal problems and approaches, and present a comparison of their evaluation results in different causal scenarios. Furthermore, we discuss key findings and outline directions for future research, underscoring the potential implications of integrating LLMs in advancing causal inference methodologies.


Pre-Trained Language Models for Keyphrase Prediction: A Review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the realm of NLP, BERT [2], extraction involves using a model to accurately identify GPT [3], and T5 [4] are some of the notable works that and classify the keyphrases in the document. The generation have consistently updated benchmark records in Pretrained of keyphrases is another task in which the model Language Model Keyphrase Extraction (PLM-predicts both present and absent keyphrases within the KPE) and Pre-trained Language Model Keyphrase Generation context of the document, introduced in [1]. The application (PLM-KPG) tasks [5], contributing significantly of deep learning technologies has witnessed to the development of NLP. a noticeable rise in using pre-trained language models The process of extracting keyphrases from a document (PLMs) in NLP in recent years. PLMs are trained using involves identifying and extracting significant different strategies on extensive text corpora and have phrases that represent the main topics or concepts discussed shown exceptional performance in various downstream within it. The primary objective is to extract the tasks, including Keyphrase Predation. PLMs using most essential and representative phrases using featurebased self-supervised learning differ from traditional learning [6, 7, 8, 9, 10] and linguistic techniques [11] methods, such as supervised learning, because they are like frequency analysis [12], part-of-speech tagging first trained on a large volume of unlabeled data before [13, 14], and syntactic parsing [15]. These methods fine-tuning small quantities of labeled data for specific can identify keyphrases based on their frequency, relevance, tasks.