Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Detecting symmetry from data is a fundamental problem in signal analysis, providing insight into underlying structure and constraints. When data emerge as trajectories of dynamical systems, symmetries encode structural properties of the dynamics that enable model reduction, principled comparison across conditions, and detection of regime changes. While recent optimal transport methods provide practical tools for data-driven symmetry detection in this setting, they rely on deterministic thresholds and lack uncertainty quantification, limiting robustness to noise and ability to resolve hierarchical symmetry structures. We present a Bayesian framework that formulates symmetry detection as probabilistic model selection over a lattice of candidate subgroups, using a Gibbs posterior constructed from Wasserstein distances between observed data and group-transformed copies. We establish three theoretical guarantees: $(i)$ a Bayesian Occam's razor favoring minimal symmetry consistent with data, $(ii)$ conjugation equivariance ensuring frame-independence, and $(iii)$ stability bounds under perturbations for robustness to noise. Posterior inference is performed via Metropolis-Hastings sampling and numerical experiments on equivariant dynamical systems and synthetic point clouds demonstrate accurate symmetry recovery under high noise and small sample sizes. An application to human gait dynamics reveals symmetry changes induced by mechanical constraints, demonstrating the framework's utility for statistical inference in biomechanical and dynamical systems.

Conformal prediction is a model-free machine learning method for creating prediction regions with a guaranteed coverage probability level. However, a data scientist often faces three challenges in practice: (i) the determination of a conformal prediction region is only approximate, jeopardizing the finite-sample validity of prediction, (ii) the computation required could be prohibitively expensive, and (iii) the shape of a conformal prediction region is hard to control. This article offers new insights into the relationship among the monotonicity of the non-conformity measure, the monotonicity of the plausibility function, and the exact determination of a conformal prediction region. Based on these new insights, we propose a simple strategy to alleviate the three challenges simultaneously.

The goal of matrix completion is to recover a target matrix from its noisy and incomplete measurements. It is a modern high-dimensional missing data problem.

Robust Principal Component Analysis (RPCA) aims to recover a low-rank structure from noisy, partially observed data that is also corrupted by sparse, potentially large-magnitude outliers. Traditional RPCA models rely on convex relaxations, such as nuclear norm and $\ell_1$ norm, to approximate the rank of a matrix and the $\ell_0$ functional (the number of non-zero elements) of another. In this work, we advocate a nonconvex regularization method, referred to as transformed $\ell_1$ (TL1), to improve both approximations. The rationale is that by varying the internal parameter of TL1, its behavior asymptotically approaches either $\ell_0$ or $\ell_1$. Since the rank is equal to the number of non-zero singular values and the nuclear norm is defined as their sum, applying TL1 to the singular values can approximate either the rank or the nuclear norm, depending on its internal parameter. We conduct a fine-grained theoretical analysis of statistical convergence rates, measured in the Frobenius norm, for both the low-rank and sparse components under general sampling schemes. These rates are comparable to those of the classical RPCA model based on the nuclear norm and $\ell_1$ norm. Moreover, we establish constant-order upper bounds on the estimated rank of the low-rank component and the cardinality of the sparse component in the regime where TL1 behaves like $\ell_0$, assuming that the respective matrices are exactly low-rank and exactly sparse. Extensive numerical experiments on synthetic data and real-world applications demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves higher accuracy than the classic convex model, especially under non-uniform sampling schemes.