Accurately identifying patients with specific medical conditions is a key challenge when using clinical data from electronic health records. Our objective was to comprehensively assess when weakly-supervised prediction methods, which use silver-standard labels (proxy measures of the true outcome) rather than gold-standard true labels, perform well in rare-outcome settings like vaccine safety studies. We compared three methods (PheNorm, MAP, and sureLDA) that combine structured features and features derived from clinical text using natural language processing, through an extensive simulation study with data-generating mechanisms ranging from simple to complex, varying outcome rates, and varying degrees of informative silver labels. We also considered using predicted probabilities to design a chart review validation study. No single method dominated the other across all prediction performance metrics. Probability-guided sampling selected a cohort enriched for patients with more mentions of important concepts in chart notes. SureLDA, the most complex of the three algorithms we considered, often performed well in simulations. Performance depended greatly on selected tuning parameters. Care should be taken when using weakly-supervised prediction methods in rare-outcome settings, particularly if the probabilities will be used in downstream analysis, but these methods can work well when silver labels are strong predictors of true outcomes.

Financial statement auditing is conducted under a risk-based evidence approach to obtain reasonable assurance. In practice, auditors often perform additional sampling or related procedures when an initial sample does not provide a sufficient basis for a conclusion. Across jurisdictions, current standards and practice manuals acknowledge such extensions, while the statistical design of sequential audit procedures has not been fully explored. This study formulates audit sampling with additional, sequentially collected items as a sequential testing problem for a finite population under sampling without replacement. We define null and alternative hypotheses in terms of a tolerable deviation rate, specify stopping and decision rules, and formulate exact sequential boundary conditions in terms of finite-population error probabilities. For practical implementation, we calibrate those boundaries by Monte Carlo simulation at least-favorable deviation rates. The exact design yields ex ante control of decision error probabilities, and the simulation-based implementation approximates that design while allowing the computation of expected stopping times. The framework is most naturally suited to attribute auditing and deviation-rate auditing, especially tests of controls, and it can be extended to one-sided, two-stage, and truncated designs.

This article was featured in the One Story to Read Today newsletter. T he smell was strange . The concrete wall was too close. One of my kids was standing on the sidewalk next to our car--not crying, just confused. The seat belt had held. The crumple zone had crumpled.

The performance of the proposed algorithm isevaluated on awide variety of machine learning tasks.

Hump crossings, or high-profile Highway Railway Grade Crossings (HRGCs), pose safety risks to highway vehicles due to potential hang-ups. These crossings typically result from post-construction railway track maintenance activities or non-compliance with design guidelines for HRGC vertical alignments. Conventional methods for measuring HRGC profiles are costly, time-consuming, traffic-disruptive, and present safety challenges. To address these issues, this research employed advanced, cost-effective techniques and innovative modeling approaches for HRGC profile measurement. A novel hybrid deep learning framework combining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Transformer architectures was developed by utilizing instrumentation and ground truth data. Instrumentation data were gathered using a highway testing vehicle equipped with Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) and Global Positioning System (GPS) sensors, while ground truth data were obtained via an industrial-standard walking profiler. Field data was collected at the Red Rock Railroad Corridor in Oklahoma. Three advanced deep learning models Transformer-LSTM sequential (model 1), LSTM-Transformer sequential (model 2), and LSTM-Transformer parallel (model 3) were evaluated to identify the most efficient architecture. Models 2 and 3 outperformed the others and were deployed to generate 2D/3D HRGC profiles. The deep learning models demonstrated significant potential to enhance highway and railroad safety by enabling rapid and accurate assessment of HRGC hang-up susceptibility.

Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) are widely used for non-parametric conditional quantile estimation, yet statistical inference for variable importance measures remains challenging due to the non-smoothness of the loss function and the complex bias-variance trade-off. In this paper, we develop a asymptotic theory for variable importance defined as the difference in pinball loss risks. We first establish the asymptotic normality of the QRF estimator by handling the non-differentiable pinball loss via Knight's identity. Second, we uncover a "phase transition" phenomenon governed by the subsampling rate $β$ (where $s \asymp n^β$). We prove that in the bias-dominated regime ($β\ge 1/2$), which corresponds to large subsample sizes typically favored in practice to maximize predictive accuracy, standard inference breaks down as the estimator converges to a deterministic bias constant rather than a zero-mean normal distribution. Finally, we derive the explicit analytic form of this asymptotic bias and discuss the theoretical feasibility of restoring valid inference via analytic bias correction. Our results highlight a fundamental trade-off between predictive performance and inferential validity, providing a theoretical foundation for understanding the intrinsic limitations of random forest inference in high-dimensional settings.

Prunella Scales, who died at the age of 93, was one of Britain's finest comic actors. But despite a long and distinguished career on stage and screen, she will inevitably be remembered as Sybil Fawlty in the 1970s TV comedy, Fawlty Towers. It was Sybil's mission in life to keep tabs on her stick insect husband Basil - played by John Cleese - between cigarette-fuelled phone conversations with her friend, Audrey. It fell to her to placate guests who had been shouted at, totally ignored or, in some cases, throttled by Basil when in one of his more manic moods. Her nightmarish laugh, gravity-defying hairdo and ferocious temper were part of a carefully constructed character that ranks as a comic masterpiece.

Accurate intraoperative diagnosis is essential for providing safe and effective care during brain tumor surgery.

The performance of the proposed algorithm is evaluated on a wide variety of machine learning tasks.