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Amortized Filtering and Smoothing with Conditional Normalizing Flows

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian filtering and smoothing for high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems are fundamental yet challenging problems in many areas of science and engineering. In this work, we propose AFSF, a unified amortized framework for filtering and smoothing with conditional normalizing flows. The core idea is to encode each observation history into a fixed-dimensional summary statistic and use this shared representation to learn both a forward flow for the filtering distribution and a backward flow for the backward transition kernel. Specifically, a recurrent encoder maps each observation history to a fixed-dimensional summary statistic whose dimension does not depend on the length of the time series. Conditioned on this shared summary statistic, the forward flow approximates the filtering distribution, while the backward flow approximates the backward transition kernel. The smoothing distribution over an entire trajectory is then recovered by combining the terminal filtering distribution with the learned backward flow through the standard backward recursion. By learning the underlying temporal evolution structure, AFSF also supports extrapolation beyond the training horizon. Moreover, by coupling the two flows through shared summary statistics, AFSF induces an implicit regularization across latent state trajectories and improves trajectory-level smoothing. In addition, we develop a flow-based particle filtering variant that provides an alternative filtering procedure and enables ESS-based diagnostics when explicit model factors are available. Numerical experiments demonstrate that AFSF provides accurate approximations of both filtering distributions and smoothing paths.


Notes on Forré's Notion of Conditional Independence and Causal Calculus for Continuous Variables

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recently, Forré (arXiv:2104.11547, 2021) introduced transitional conditional independence, a notion of conditional independence that provides a unified framework for both random and non-stochastic variables. The original paper establishes a strong global Markov property connecting transitional conditional independencies with suitable graphical separation criteria for directed mixed graphs with input nodes (iDMGs), together with a version of causal calculus for iDMGs in a general measure-theoretic setting. These notes aim to further illustrate the motivations behind this framework and its connections to the literature, highlight certain subtlies in the general measure-theoretic causal calculus, and extend the "one-line" formulation of the ID algorithm of Richardson et al. (Ann. Statist. 51(1):334--361, 2023) to the general measure-theoretic setting.


Urgent weather warning from Texas to Pennsylvania as tornadoes and giant hail threaten millions

Daily Mail - Science & tech

Kentucky mother and daughter turn down $26.5MILLION to sell their farms to secretive tech giant that wants to build data center there Horrifying next twist in the Alexander brothers case: MAUREEN CALLAHAN exposes an unthinkable perversion that's been hiding in plain sight Hollywood icon who starred in Psycho after Hitchcock dubbed her'my new Grace Kelly' looks incredible at 95 Kylie Jenner's total humiliation in Hollywood: Derogatory rumor leaves her boyfriend's peers'laughing at her' behind her back Tucker Carlson erupts at Trump adviser as she hurls'SLANDER' claim linking him to synagogue shooting Ben Affleck'scores $600m deal' with Netflix to sell his AI film start-up Long hair over 45 is ageing and try-hard. I've finally cut mine off. Alexander brothers' alleged HIGH SCHOOL rape video: Classmates speak out on sickening footage... as creepy unseen photos are exposed Heartbreaking video shows very elderly DoorDash driver shuffle down customer's driveway with coffee order because he is too poor to retire Amber Valletta, 52, was a '90s Vogue model who made movies with Sandra Bullock and Kate Hudson, see her now Model Cindy Crawford, 60, mocked for her'out of touch' morning routine: 'Nothing about this is normal' The US is facing a severe weather outbreak on Wednesday, threatening millions of people with tornadoes, giant hail and destructive winds. Forecasters warned that the dangerous storm system is expected to barrel through Texas and Louisiana before pushing northeast toward parts of Pennsylvania and New York. Northern Illinois remains the area of greatest concern, where a moderate tornado risk covers about two million people.




Mutual Information Collapse Explains Disentanglement Failure in $β$-VAEs

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The $β$-VAE is a foundational framework for unsupervised disentanglement, using $β$ to regulate the trade-off between latent factorization and reconstruction fidelity. Empirically, however, disentanglement performance exhibits a pervasive non-monotonic trend: benchmarks such as MIG and SAP typically peak at intermediate $β$ and collapse as regularization increases. We demonstrate that this collapse is a fundamental information-theoretic failure, where strong Kullback-Leibler pressure promotes marginal independence at the expense of the latent channel's semantic informativeness. By formalizing this mechanism in a linear-Gaussian setting, we prove that for $β> 1$, stationarity-induced dynamics trigger a spectral contraction of the encoder gain, driving latent-factor mutual information to zero. To resolve this, we introduce the $λβ$-VAE, which decouples regularization pressure from informational collapse via an auxiliary $L_2$ reconstruction penalty $λ$. Extensive experiments on dSprites, Shapes3D, and MPI3D-real confirm that $λ> 0$ stabilizes disentanglement and restores latent informativeness over a significantly broader range of $β$, providing a principled theoretical justification for dual-parameter regularization in variational inference backbones.




Rare, deep-sea encounter: California scientists observe 'extraordinary' seven-arm octopus

Los Angeles Times

Things to Do in L.A. Tap to enable a layout that focuses on the article. Rare, deep-sea encounter: California scientists observe'extraordinary' seven-arm octopus On November 6, 2025, MBARI Senior Scientist Steven Haddock and researchers in MBARI's Biodiversity and Biooptics Team observed a seven-arm octopus (Haliphron atlanticus) during an expedition in Monterey Bay with MBARI's remotely operated vehicle at a depth of approximately 700 meters. This is read by an automated voice. Please report any issues or inconsistencies here . California scientists captured rare footage of a seven-arm octopus eating a jellyfish.


LLM & HPC:Benchmarking DeepSeek's Performance in High-Performance Computing Tasks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs), such as GPT-4 and DeepSeek, have been applied to a wide range of domains in software engineering. However, their potential in the context of High-Performance Computing (HPC) much remains to be explored. This paper evaluates how well DeepSeek, a recent LLM, performs in generating a set of HPC benchmark codes: a conjugate gradient solver, the parallel heat equation, parallel matrix multiplication, DGEMM, and the STREAM triad operation. We analyze DeepSeek's code generation capabilities for traditional HPC languages like Cpp, Fortran, Julia and Python. The evaluation includes testing for code correctness, performance, and scaling across different configurations and matrix sizes. We also provide a detailed comparison between DeepSeek and another widely used tool: GPT-4. Our results demonstrate that while DeepSeek generates functional code for HPC tasks, it lags behind GPT-4, in terms of scalability and execution efficiency of the generated code.