Deep neural networks require principled uncertainty quantification, yet existing variational inference methods often employ isotropic Gaussian approximations in weight space that poorly match the network's inherent geometry. We address this mismatch by introducing Concentration-Adapted Perturbations (CAP), a variational framework that models weight uncertainties directly on the unit hypersphere using von Mises-Fisher distributions. Building on recent work in radial-directional posterior decompositions and spherical weight constraints, CAP provides the first complete theoretical framework connecting directional statistics to practical noise regularization in neural networks. Our key contribution is an analytical derivation linking vMF concentration parameters to activation noise variance, enabling each layer to learn its optimal uncertainty level through a novel closed-form KL divergence regularizer. In experiments on CIFAR-10, CAP significantly improves model calibration - reducing Expected Calibration Error by 5.6x - while providing interpretable layer-wise uncertainty profiles. CAP requires minimal computational overhead and integrates seamlessly into standard architectures, offering a theoretically grounded yet practical approach to uncertainty quantification in deep learning.

Diabetes mellitus poses a significant health risk, as nearly 1 in 9 people are affected by it. Early detection can significantly lower this risk. Despite significant advancements in machine learning for identifying diabetic cases, results can still be influenced by the imbalanced nature of the data. To address this challenge, our study considered copula-based data augmentation, which preserves the dependency structure when generating data for the minority class and integrates it with machine learning (ML) techniques. We selected the Pima Indian dataset and generated data using A2 copula, then applied four machine learning algorithms: logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting, and extreme gradient boosting. Our findings indicate that XGBoost combined with A2 copula oversampling achieved the best performance improving accuracy by 4.6%, precision by 15.6%, recall by 20.4%, F1-score by 18.2% and AUC by 25.5% compared to the standard SMOTE method. Furthermore, we statistically validated our results using the McNemar test. This research represents the first known use of A2 copulas for data augmentation and serves as an alternative to the SMOTE technique, highlighting the efficacy of copulas as a statistical method in machine learning applications.

Humans interpret the world around them in terms of cause and effect and communicate their understanding of the world to each other in causal terms. These causal aspects of human cognition are thought to underlie humans' ability to generalize and learn efficiently in new domains, an area where current machine learning systems are weak. Building human-like causal competency into machine learning systems may facilitate the construction of effective and interpretable AI. Indeed, the machine learning community has been importing ideas on causality formalized by the Structural Causal Model (SCM) framework, which provides a rigorous formal language for many aspects of causality and has led to significant advances. However, the SCM framework fails to capture some salient aspects of human causal cognition and has likewise not yet led to advances in machine learning in certain critical areas where humans excel. We contend that the problem of causality in the ``human niche'' -- for a social, autonomous, and goal-driven agent sensing and acting in the world in which humans live -- is quite different from the kind of causality captured by SCMs. For example, everyday objects come in similar types that have similar causal properties, and so humans readily generalize knowledge of one type of object (cups) to another related type (bowls) by drawing causal analogies between objects with similar properties, but such analogies are at best awkward to express in SCMs. We explore how such causal capabilities are adaptive in, and motivated by, the human niche. By better appreciating properties of human causal cognition and, crucially, how those properties are adaptive in the niche in which humans live, we hope that future work at the intersection of machine learning and causality will leverage more human-like inductive biases to create more capable, controllable, and interpretable systems.

What fundamentally distinguishes an adversarial attack from a misclassification due to limited model expressivity or finite data? In this work, we investigate this question in the setting of high-dimensional binary classification, where statistical effects due to limited data availability play a central role. We introduce a new error metric that precisely capture this distinction, quantifying model vulnerability to consistent adversarial attacks -- perturbations that preserve the ground-truth labels. Our main technical contribution is an exact and rigorous asymptotic characterization of these metrics in both well-specified models and latent space models, revealing different vulnerability patterns compared to standard robust error measures. The theoretical results demonstrate that as models become more overparameterized, their vulnerability to label-preserving perturbations grows, offering theoretical insight into the mechanisms underlying model sensitivity to adversarial attacks.

Semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) is a powerful framework for approximating complex posterior distributions, but training with the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence can be challenging due to high variance and bias in high-dimensional settings. While current state-of-the-art semi-implicit variational inference methods, particularly Kernel Semi-Implicit Variational Inference (KSIVI), have been shown to work in high dimensions, training remains moderately expensive. In this work, we propose a kernelized KL divergence estimator that stabilizes training through nonparametric smoothing. To further reduce the bias, we introduce an importance sampling correction. We provide a theoretical connection to the amortized version of the Stein variational gradient descent, which estimates the score gradient via Stein's identity, showing that both methods minimize the same objective, but our semi-implicit approach achieves lower gradient variance. In addition, our method's bias in function space is benign, leading to more stable and efficient optimization. Empirical results demonstrate that our method outperforms or matches state-of-the-art SIVI methods in both performance and training efficiency.

Recent years have witnessed growing interest in semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) methods due to their ability to rapidly generate samples from complex distributions. However, since the likelihood of these samples is non-trivial to estimate in high dimensions, current research focuses on finding effective SIVI training routines. Although unbiased implicit variational inference (UIVI) has largely been dismissed as imprecise and computationally prohibitive because of its inner MCMC loop, we revisit this method and show that UIVI's MCMC loop can be effectively replaced via importance sampling and the optimal proposal distribution can be learned stably by minimizing an expected forward Kullback-Leibler divergence without bias. Our refined approach demonstrates superior performance or parity with state-of-the-art methods on established SIVI benchmarks.

Developing probabilistic perspectives on established mac hine learning algorithms can be a promising endeavor, as it casts methods originating from, for example, geometric or h euristic concepts into a well-understood framework that allows one to make explicit the assumptions and the dependen cies that are inherent in the resulting model. Many methods have been described in this shared language, even spanni ng the broad machine learning paradigms of unsupervised, supervised, and reinforcement learning. This makes it poss ible to compare methods, understand shortcomings, and propose extensions through a rich body of broad research. Furthermore, previous research on a specific method that was generalized in such a way might prove to be useful for the field of probabilistic modeling itself. After all, the mo st efficient methods for probabilistic inference under a mod el are rarely the most general and often leverage the model-spe cific structure (Kalman, 1960; Margossian & Blei, 2024). In this work, a soft variant of Slow Feature Analysis (SFA) (W iskott, 1998; Wiskott & Sejnowski, 2002) is derived using the language of probabilistic inference.

We prove that, given a mean-field location-scale variational family, black-box variational inference (BBVI) with the reparametrization gradient converges at an almost dimension-independent rate. Specifically, for strongly log-concave and log-smooth targets, the number of iterations for BBVI with a sub-Gaussian family to achieve an objective $ε$-close to the global optimum is $\mathrm{O}(\log d)$, which improves over the $\mathrm{O}(d)$ dependence of full-rank location-scale families. For heavy-tailed families, we provide a weaker $\mathrm{O}(d^{2/k})$ dimension dependence, where $k$ is the number of finite moments. Additionally, if the Hessian of the target log-density is constant, the complexity is free of any explicit dimension dependence. We also prove that our bound on the gradient variance, which is key to our result, cannot be improved using only spectral bounds on the Hessian of the target log-density.

Suppressor variables can influence model predictions without being dependent on the target outcome and they pose a significant challenge for Explainable AI (XAI) methods. These variables may cause false-positive feature attributions, undermining the utility of explanations. Although effective remedies exist for linear models, their extension to non-linear models and to instance-based explanations has remained limited. We introduce PatternLocal, a novel XAI technique that addresses this gap. PatternLocal begins with a locally linear surrogate, e.g. LIME, KernelSHAP, or gradient-based methods, and transforms the resulting discriminative model weights into a generative representation, thereby suppressing the influence of suppressor variables while preserving local fidelity. In extensive hyperparameter optimization on the XAI-TRIS benchmark, PatternLocal consistently outperformed other XAI methods and reduced false-positive attributions when explaining non-linear tasks, thereby enabling more reliable and actionable insights.

We present the new bidirectional variational autoencoder (BVAE) network architecture. The BVAE uses a single neural network both to encode and decode instead of an encoder-decoder network pair. The network encodes in the forward direction and decodes in the backward direction through the same synaptic web. Simulations compared BVAEs and ordinary VAEs on the four image tasks of image reconstruction, classification, interpolation, and generation. The image datasets included MNIST handwritten digits, Fashion-MNIST, CIFAR-10, and CelebA-64 face images. The bidirectional structure of BVAEs cut the parameter count by almost 50% and still slightly outperformed the unidirectional VAEs.