Conventional survival metrics, such as Harrell's concordance index and the Brier Score, rely on the independent censoring assumption for valid inference in the presence of right-censored data. However, when instances are censored for reasons related to the event of interest, this assumption no longer holds, as this kind of dependent censoring biases the marginal survival estimates of popular nonparametric estimators. In this paper, we propose three copula-based metrics to evaluate survival models in the presence of dependent censoring, and design a framework to create realistic, semi-synthetic datasets with dependent censoring to facilitate the evaluation of the metrics. Our empirical analyses in synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets show that our metrics can give error estimates that are closer to the true error, mainly in terms of predictive accuracy.

Conformal prediction is a powerful distribution-free framework for constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees. Classical methods, such as split conformal prediction, provide marginal coverage, ensuring that the prediction set contains the label of a random test point with a target probability. However, these guarantees may not hold uniformly across different subpopulations, leading to disparities in coverage. Prior work has explored coverage guarantees conditioned on events related to the covariates and label of the test point. We present Kandinsky conformal prediction, a framework that significantly expands the scope of conditional coverage guarantees. In contrast to Mondrian conformal prediction, which restricts its coverage guarantees to disjoint groups -- reminiscent of the rigid, structured grids of Piet Mondrian's art -- our framework flexibly handles overlapping and fractional group memberships defined jointly on covariates and labels, reflecting the layered, intersecting forms in Wassily Kandinsky's compositions. Our algorithm unifies and extends existing methods, encompassing covariate-based group conditional, class conditional, and Mondrian conformal prediction as special cases, while achieving a minimax-optimal high-probability conditional coverage bound. Finally, we demonstrate the practicality of our approach through empirical evaluation on real-world datasets.

In this paper we establish a new margin-based generalization bound for voting classifiers, refining existing results and yielding tighter generalization guarantees for widely used boosting algorithms such as AdaBoost (Freund and Schapire, 1997). Furthermore, the new margin-based generalization bound enables the derivation of an optimal weak-to-strong learner: a Majority-of-3 large-margin classifiers with an expected error matching the theoretical lower bound. This result provides a more natural alternative to the Majority-of-5 algorithm by (H\o gsgaard et al. 2024) , and matches the Majority-of-3 result by (Aden-Ali et al. 2024) for the realizable prediction model.

This paper presents the experimental validation of an interaction-aware model predictive decision-making (IAMPDM) approach in the course of a simulator study. The proposed IAMPDM uses a model of the pedestrian, which simultaneously predicts their future trajectories and characterizes the interaction between the pedestrian and the automated vehicle. The main benefit of the proposed concept and the experiment is that the interaction between the pedestrian and the socially compliant autonomous vehicle leads to smoother traffic. Furthermore, the experiment features a novel human-in-the-decision-loop aspect, meaning that the test subjects have no expected behavior or defined sequence of their actions, better imitating real traffic scenarios. Results show that intention-aware decision-making algorithms are more effective in realistic conditions and contribute to smoother traffic flow than state-of-the-art solutions. Furthermore, the findings emphasize the crucial impact of intention-aware decision-making on autonomous vehicle performance in urban areas and the need for further research.

Neural solvers based on the divide-and-conquer approach for Vehicle Routing Problems (VRPs) in general, and capacitated VRP (CVRP) in particular, integrates the global partition of an instance with local constructions for each subproblem to enhance generalization. However, during the global partition phase, misclusterings within subgraphs have a tendency to progressively compound throughout the multi-step decoding process of the learning-based partition policy. This suboptimal behavior in the global partition phase, in turn, may lead to a dramatic deterioration in the performance of the overall decomposition-based system, despite using optimal local constructions. To address these challenges, we propose a versatile Hierarchical Learning-based Graph Partition (HLGP) framework, which is tailored to benefit the partition of CVRP instances by synergistically integrating global and local partition policies. Specifically, the global partition policy is tasked with creating the coarse multi-way partition to generate the sequence of simpler two-way partition subtasks. These subtasks mark the initiation of the subsequent K local partition levels. At each local partition level, subtasks exclusive for this level are assigned to the local partition policy which benefits from the insensitive local topological features to incrementally alleviate the compounded errors. This framework is versatile in the sense that it optimizes the involved partition policies towards a unified objective harmoniously compatible with both reinforcement learning (RL) and supervised learning (SL). (*Due to the notification of arXiv "The Abstract field cannot be longer than 1,920 characters", the appeared Abstract is shortened. For the full Abstract, please download the Article.)

Sequential decision-making with multiple agents and imperfect information is commonly modeled as an extensive game. One efficient method for computing Nash equilibria in large, zero-sum, imperfect information games is counterfactual regret minimization (CFR). In the domain of poker, CFR has proven effective, particularly when using a domain-specific augmentation involving chance outcome sampling. In this paper, we describe a general family of domain-independent CFR sample-based algorithms called Monte Carlo counterfactual regret minimization (MCCFR) of which the original and poker-specific versions are special cases. We start by showing that MCCFR performs the same regret updates as CFR on expectation. Then, we introduce two sampling schemes: outcome sampling and external sampling, showing that both have bounded overall regret with high probability. Thus, they can compute an approximate equilibrium using self-play. Finally, we prove a new tighter bound on the regret for the original CFR algorithm and relate this new bound to MCCFR's bounds. We show empirically that, although the sample-based algorithms require more iterations, their lower cost per iteration can lead to dramatically faster convergence in various games.

The cutting plane method is an augmentative constrained optimization procedure that is often used with continuous-domain optimization techniques such as linear and convex programs. We investigate the viability of a similar idea within message passing - for integral solutions in the context of two combinatorial problems: 1) For Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP), we propose a factor-graph based on Held-Karp formulation, with an exponential number of constraint factors, each of which has an exponential but sparse tabular form.

Importance sampling is an essential component of off-policy model-free reinforcement learning algorithms. However, its most effective variant, weighted importance sampling, does not carry over easily to function approximation and, because of this, it is not utilized in existing off-policy learning algorithms. In this paper, we take two steps toward bridging this gap. First, we show that weighted importance sampling can be viewed as a special case of weighting the error of individual training samples, and that this weighting has theoretical and empirical benefits similar to those of weighted importance sampling. Second, we show that these benefits extend to a new weighted-importance-sampling version of offpolicy LSTD(). We show empirically that our new WIS-LSTD() algorithm can result in much more rapid and reliable convergence than conventional off-policy LSTD() (Yu 2010, Bertsekas & Yu 2009).

We consider the problem of learning models of options for real-time abstract planning, in the setting where reward functions can be specified at any time and their expected returns must be efficiently computed. We introduce a new model for an option that is independent of any reward function, called the universal option model (UOM). We prove that the UOM of an option can construct a traditional option model given a reward function, and also supports efficient computation of the option-conditional return. We extend the UOM to linear function approximation, and we show the UOM gives the TD solution of option returns and the value function of a policy over options. We provide a stochastic approximation algorithm for incrementally learning UOMs from data and prove its consistency. We demonstrate our method in two domains. The first domain is a real-time strategy game, where the controller must select the best game unit to accomplish a dynamically-specified task. The second domain is article recommendation, where each user query defines a new reward function and an article's relevance is the expected return from following a policy that follows the citations between articles. Our experiments show that UOMs are substantially more efficient than previously known methods for evaluating option returns and policies over options.

High-quality, large-scale instructions are crucial for aligning large language models (LLMs), however, there is a severe shortage of instruction in the field of natural language understanding (NLU). Previous works on constructing NLU instructions mainly focus on information extraction (IE), neglecting tasks such as machine reading comprehension, question answering, and text classification. Furthermore, the lack of diversity in the data has led to a decreased generalization ability of trained LLMs in other NLU tasks and a noticeable decline in the fundamental model's general capabilities. To address this issue, we propose Hum, a large-scale, high-quality synthetic instruction corpus for NLU tasks, designed to enhance the NLU capabilities of LLMs. Specifically, Hum includes IE (either close IE or open IE), machine reading comprehension, text classification, and instruction generalist tasks, thereby enriching task diversity. Additionally, we introduce a human-LLMs collaborative mechanism to synthesize instructions, which enriches instruction diversity by incorporating guidelines, preference rules, and format variants. We conduct extensive experiments on 5 NLU tasks and 28 general capability evaluation datasets for LLMs. Experimental results show that Hum enhances the NLU capabilities of six LLMs by an average of 3.1\%, with no significant decline observed in other general capabilities.