Existing methods typically rely on either interpretable but inflexible models or highly flexible black-box approaches that sacrifice interpretability; moreover, most impose a single global decision rule across patients. We introduce the Locally Interpretable Individualized Treatment Rule (LI-ITR) method, which combines flexible machine learning models to accurately learn complex treatment outcomes with locally interpretable approximations to construct subject-specific treatment rules. LI-ITR employs variational autoencoders to generate realistic local synthetic samples and learns individualized decision rules through a mixture of interpretable experts. Simulation studies show that LI-ITR accurately recovers true subject-specific local coefficients and optimal treatment strategies. An application to precision side-effect management in breast cancer illustrates the necessity of flexible predictive modeling and highlights the practical utility of LI-ITR in estimating optimal treatment rules while providing transparent, clinically interpretable explanations.

Scale-invariance in games has recently emerged as a widely valued desirable property. Yet, almost all fast convergence guarantees in learning in games require prior knowledge of the utility scale. To address this, we develop learning dynamics that achieve fast convergence while being both scale-free, requiring no prior information about utilities, and scale-invariant, remaining unchanged under positive rescaling of utilities. For two-player zero-sum games, we obtain scale-free and scale-invariant dynamics with external regret bounded by $\tilde{O}(A_{\mathrm{diff}})$, where $A_{\mathrm{diff}}$ is the payoff range, which implies an $\tilde{O}(A_{\mathrm{diff}} / T)$ convergence rate to Nash equilibrium after $T$ rounds. For multiplayer general-sum games with $n$ players and $m$ actions, we obtain scale-free and scale-invariant dynamics with swap regret bounded by $O(U_{\mathrm{max}} \log T)$, where $U_{\mathrm{max}}$ is the range of the utilities, ignoring the dependence on the number of players and actions. This yields an $O(U_{\mathrm{max}} \log T / T)$ convergence rate to correlated equilibrium. Our learning dynamics are based on optimistic follow-the-regularized-leader with an adaptive learning rate that incorporates the squared path length of the opponents' gradient vectors, together with a new stopping-time analysis that exploits negative terms in regret bounds without scale-dependent tuning. For general-sum games, scale-free learning is enabled also by a technique called doubling clipping, which clips observed gradients based on past observations.

We introduce the problem of learning conditional averages in the PAC framework. The learner receives a sample labeled by an unknown target concept from a known concept class, as in standard PAC learning. However, instead of learning the target concept itself, the goal is to predict, for each instance, the average label over its neighborhood -- an arbitrary subset of points that contains the instance. In the degenerate case where all neighborhoods are singletons, the problem reduces exactly to classic PAC learning. More generally, it extends PAC learning to a setting that captures learning tasks arising in several domains, including explainability, fairness, and recommendation systems. Our main contribution is a complete characterization of when conditional averages are learnable, together with sample complexity bounds that are tight up to logarithmic factors. The characterization hinges on the joint finiteness of two novel combinatorial parameters, which depend on both the concept class and the neighborhood system, and are closely related to the independence number of the associated neighborhood graph.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are powerful and widely used probabilistic regression models, but their effectiveness in practice is often limited by the choice of kernel function. This kernel function is typically handcrafted from a small set of standard functions, a process that requires expert knowledge, results in limited adaptivity to data, and imposes strong assumptions on the hypothesis space. We study Empirical GPs, a principled framework for constructing flexible, data-driven GP priors that overcome these limitations. Rather than relying on standard parametric kernels, we estimate the mean and covariance functions empirically from a corpus of historical observations, enabling the prior to reflect rich, non-trivial covariance structures present in the data. Theoretically, we show that the resulting model converges to the GP that is closest (in KL-divergence sense) to the real data generating process. Practically, we formulate the problem of learning the GP prior from independent datasets as likelihood estimation and derive an Expectation-Maximization algorithm with closed-form updates, allowing the model handle heterogeneous observation locations across datasets. We demonstrate that Empirical GPs achieve competitive performance on learning curve extrapolation and time series forecasting benchmarks.

We study nonparametric regression over Besov spaces from noisy observations under sub-exponential noise, aiming to achieve minimax-optimal guarantees on the integrated squared error that hold with high probability and adapt to the unknown noise level. To this end, we propose a wavelet-based online learning algorithm that dynamically adjusts to the observed gradient noise by adaptively clipping it at an appropriate level, eliminating the need to tune parameters such as the noise variance or gradient bounds. As a by-product of our analysis, we derive high-probability adaptive regret bounds that scale with the $\ell_1$-norm of the competitor. Finally, in the batch statistical setting, we obtain adaptive and minimax-optimal estimation rates for Besov spaces via a refined online-to-batch conversion. This approach carefully exploits the structure of the squared loss in combination with self-normalized concentration inequalities.

We consider an online learning problem in environments with multiple change points. In contrast to the single change point problem that is widely studied using classical "high confidence" detection schemes, the multiple change point environment presents new learning-theoretic and algorithmic challenges. Specifically, we show that classical methods may exhibit catastrophic failure (high regret) due to a phenomenon we refer to as endogenous confounding. To overcome this, we propose a new class of learning algorithms dubbed Anytime Tracking CUSUM (ATC). These are horizon-free online algorithms that implement a selective detection principle, balancing the need to ignore "small" (hard-to-detect) shifts, while reacting "quickly" to significant ones. We prove that the performance of a properly tuned ATC algorithm is nearly minimax-optimal; its regret is guaranteed to closely match a novel information-theoretic lower bound on the achievable performance of any learning algorithm in the multiple change point problem. Experiments on synthetic as well as real-world data validate the aforementioned theoretical findings.

We introduce a novel cyclic Markov decision process (MDP) framework for multi-step decision problems with heterogeneous stage-specific dynamics, transitions, and discount factors across the cycle. In this setting, offline learning is challenging: optimizing a policy at any stage shifts the state distributions of subsequent stages, propagating mismatch across the cycle. To address this, we propose a modular structural framework that decomposes the cyclic process into stage-wise sub-problems. While generally applicable, we instantiate this principle as CycleFQI, an extension of fitted Q-iteration enabling theoretical analysis and interpretation. It uses a vector of stage-specific Q-functions, tailored to each stage, to capture within-stage sequences and transitions between stages. This modular design enables partial control, allowing some stages to be optimized while others follow predefined policies. We establish finite-sample suboptimality error bounds and derive global convergence rates under Besov regularity, demonstrating that CycleFQI mitigates the curse of dimensionality compared to monolithic baselines. Additionally, we propose a sieve-based method for asymptotic inference of optimal policy values under a margin condition. Experiments on simulated and real-world Type 1 Diabetes data sets demonstrate CycleFQI's effectiveness.

Feature-importance methods show promise in transforming machine learning models from predictive engines into tools for scientific discovery. However, due to data sampling and algorithmic stochasticity, expressive models can be unstable, leading to inaccurate variable importance estimates and undermining their utility in critical biomedical applications. Although ensembling offers a solution, deciding whether to explain a single ensemble model or aggregate individual model explanations is difficult due to the nonlinearity of importance measures and remains largely understudied. Our theoretical analysis, developed under assumptions accommodating complex state-of-the-art ML models, reveals that this choice is primarily driven by the model's excess risk. In contrast to prior literature, we show that ensembling at the model level provides more accurate variable-importance estimates, particularly for expressive models, by reducing this leading error term. We validate these findings on classical benchmarks and a large-scale proteomic study from the UK Biobank.

We study offline reinforcement learning under $Q^\star$-approximation and partial coverage, a setting that motivates practical algorithms such as Conservative $Q$-Learning (CQL; Kumar et al., 2020) but has received limited theoretical attention. Our work is inspired by the following open question: "Are $Q^\star$-realizability and Bellman completeness sufficient for sample-efficient offline RL under partial coverage?" We answer in the negative by establishing an information-theoretic lower bound. Going substantially beyond this, we introduce a general framework that characterizes the intrinsic complexity of a given $Q^\star$ function class, inspired by model-free decision-estimation coefficients (DEC) for online RL (Foster et al., 2023b; Liu et al., 2025b). This complexity recovers and improves the quantities underlying the guarantees of Chen and Jiang (2022) and Uehara et al. (2023), and extends to broader settings. Our decision-estimation decomposition can be combined with a wide range of $Q^\star$ estimation procedures, modularizing and generalizing existing approaches. Beyond the general framework, we make further contributions: By developing a novel second-order performance difference lemma, we obtain the first $ε^{-2}$ sample complexity under partial coverage for soft $Q$-learning, improving the $ε^{-4}$ bound of Uehara et al. (2023). We remove Chen and Jiang's (2022) need for additional online interaction when the value gap of $Q^\star$ is unknown. We also give the first characterization of offline learnability for general low-Bellman-rank MDPs without Bellman completeness (Jiang et al., 2017; Du et al., 2021; Jin et al., 2021), a canonical setting in online RL that remains unexplored in offline RL except for special cases. Finally, we provide the first analysis for CQL under $Q^\star$-realizability and Bellman completeness beyond the tabular case.

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