Peter M Williams School of Cognitive and Computing Sciences University of Sussex Falmer, Brighton BN1 9QH, UK. email: peterw@cogs.susx.ac.uk Abstract This paper presents a new approach to the problem of modelling daily rainfall using neural networks. We first model the conditional distributions ofrainfall amounts, in such a way that the model itself determines the order of the process, and the time-dependent shape and scale of the conditional distributions. After integrating over particular weather patterns, weare able to extract seasonal variations and long-term trends. 1 Introduction Analysis of rainfall data is important for many agricultural, ecological and engineering activities. Design of irrigation and drainage systems, for instance, needs to take account not only of mean expected rainfall, but also of rainfall volatility. Estimates of crop yields also depend on the distribution of rainfall during the growing season, as well as on the overall amount.

The observed distribution of natural images is far from uniform. On the contrary, real images have complex and important structure thatcan be exploited for image processing, recognition and analysis. There have been many proposed approaches to the principled statisticalmodeling of images, but each has been limited in either the complexity of the models or the complexity of the images. Wepresent a nonparametric multi-scale statistical model for images that can be used for recognition, image de-noising, and in a "generative mode" to synthesize high quality textures.

Scale invariance is a fundamental property of ensembles of natural images[1]. Their non Gaussian properties [15, 16] are less well understood, but they indicate the existence of a rich statistical structure.In this work we present a detailed study of the marginal statistics of a variable related to the edges in the images. A numerical analysis shows that it exhibits extended self-similarity [3, 4, 5]. This is a scaling property stronger than self-similarity: all its moments can be expressed as a power of any given moment. More interesting, all the exponents can be predicted in terms of a multiplicative log-Poisson process. This is the very same model that was used very recently to predict the correct exponents of the structure functions of turbulent flows [6]. These results allow us to study the underlying multifractal singularities. In particular we find that the most singular structures are one-dimensional: the most singular manifold consists of sharp edges.

In contrast to the maximum likelihood approach which finds only a single estimate for the regression parameters, the Bayesian approach yields a distribution of weight parameters, p(wID), conditional on the training data D, and predictions are ex- ·Present address: SNN, University of Nijmegen, Geert Grooteplein 21, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.

Weconsider a deterministic system with continuous state and time with infinite horizon discounted cost functional.

Department of Physics, Cavendish Laboratory Cambridge University Abstract Until recently, artificial intelligence researchers have frowned upon the application of probability propagation in Bayesian belief networks thathave cycles. The probability propagation algorithm is only exact in networks that are cycle-free. However, it has recently been discovered that the two best error-correcting decoding algorithms areactually performing probability propagation in belief networks with cycles. 1 Communicating over a noisy channel Our increasingly wired world demands efficient methods for communicating bits of information over physical channels that introduce errors. Examples of real-world channels include twisted-pair telephone wires, shielded cable-TV wire, fiberoptic cable, deep-space radio, terrestrial radio, and indoor radio. Engineers attempt to correct the errors introduced by the noise in these channels through the use of channel coding which adds protection to the information source, so that some channel errors can be corrected.

We explain how the training data can be separated into clean information andunexplainable noise. Analogous to the data, the neural network is separated into a time invariant structure used for forecasting, and a noisy part. We propose a unified theory connecting the optimization algorithms forcleaning and learning together with algorithms that control the data noise and the parameter noise. The combined algorithm allows a data-driven local control of the liability of the network parameters and therefore an improvement in generalization. The approach is proven to be very useful at the task of forecasting the German bond market.

It is especially suited for speech and image data which in many applieations have to be transmitted under low bandwidth/high noise level conditions. Followingthe idea of (Farvardin, 1990) and (Luttrell, 1989) of jointly optimizing the codebook and the data representation w.r.t. to a given channel noise we apply a deterministic annealingscheme (Rose, 1990; Buhmann, 1997) to the problem and develop a An Annealed Self-Organizing Map for Source Channel Coding 431 soft topographic vector quantization algorithm (STVQ) (cf.

We consider the general problem of learning multi-category classification fromlabeled examples. We present experimental results for a nearest neighbor algorithm which actively selects samples from different pattern classes according to a querying rule instead of the a priori class probabilities. The amount of improvement of this query-based approach over the passive batch approach depends on the complexity of the Bayes rule. The principle on which this algorithm isbased is general enough to be used in any learning algorithm which permits a model-selection criterion and for which the error rate of the classifier is calculable in terms of the complexity of the model. 1 INTRODUCTION We consider the general problem of learning multi-category classification from labeled examples.In many practical learning settings the time or sample size available for training are limited. This may have adverse effects on the accuracy of the resulting classifier.For instance, in learning to recognize handwritten characters typical time limitation confines the training sample size to be of the order of a few hundred examples. It is important to make learning more efficient by obtaining only training data which contains significant information about the separability of the pattern classes thereby letting the learning algorithm participate actively in the sampling process. Querying for the class labels of specificly selected examples in the input space may lead to significant improvements in the generalization error (cf.

Given a melody, the system invents afour-part chorale harmonization and a variation of any chorale voice, after being trained on music pieces of composers like J. S. Bach and J .