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Resolute Choice in Sequential Decision Problems with Multiple Priors

AAAI Conferences

This paper is devoted to sequential decision making under uncertainty, in the multi-prior framework of Gilboa and Schmeidler [1989]. In this setting, a set of probability measures (priors) is defined instead of a single one, and the decision maker selects a strategy that maximizes the minimum possible value of expected utility over this set of priors. We are interested here in the resolute choice approach, where one initially commits to a complete strategy and never deviates from it later. Given a decision tree representation with multiple priors, we study the problem of determining an optimal strategy from the root according to min expected utility. We prove the intractability of evaluating a strategy in the general case. We then identify different properties of a decision tree that enable to design dedicated resolution procedures. Finally, experimental results are presented that evaluate these procedures.


Motor Simulation via Coupled Internal Models Using Sequential Monte Carlo

AAAI Conferences

We describe a generative Bayesian model for action understanding in which inverse-forward internal model pairs are considered "hypotheses" of plausible action goals that are explored in parallel via an approximate inference mechanism based on sequential Monte Carlo methods. The reenactment of internal model pairs can be considered a form of motor simulation, which supports both perceptual prediction and action understanding at the goal level. However, this procedure is generally considered to be computationally inefficient. We present a model that dynamically reallocates computational resources to more accurate internal models depending on both the available prior information and the prediction error of the inverse-forward models, and which leads to successful action recognition. We present experimental results that test the robustness and efficiency of our model in real-world scenarios.


Inference with Multinomial Data: Why to Weaken the Prior Strength

AAAI Conferences

This paper considers inference from multinomial data and addresses the problem of choosing the strength of the Dirichlet prior under a mean-squared error criterion. We compare the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) and the most commonly used Bayesian estimators obtained by assuming a prior Dirichlet distribution with non-informative prior parameters, that is, the parameters of the Dirichlet are equal and altogether sum up to the so called strength of the prior. Under this criterion, MLE becomes more preferable than the Bayesian estimators at the increase of the number of categories k of the multinomial, because non-informative Bayesian estimators induce a region where they are dominant that quickly shrinks with the increase of k. This can be avoided if the strength of the prior is not kept constant but decreased with the number of categories. We argue that the strength should decrease at least k times faster than usual estimators do.


Conics With A Common Axis of Symmetry: Properties and Applications to Camera Calibration

AAAI Conferences

We focus on recovering the 2D Euclidean structure in one view from the projections of N parallel conics in this paper. This work denotes that the conic dual to the absolute points is the general form of the conic dual to the circular points, but it does not encode the Euclidean structure. Therefore, we have to recover the circular point-envelope to find out some useful information about the Euclidean structure, which relies on the fact that the line at infinity and the symmetric axis can be recovered. We provide a solution to recover the two lines and deduce the constraints for recovering the conic dual to the circular points, then apply them on the camera calibration. Our work relaxes the problem conditions and gives a more general framework than the past. Experiments with simulated and real data are carried out to show the validity of the proposed algorithm. Especially, our method is applied in the endoscope operation to calibrate the camera for tracking the surgical tools, that is the main interest-point we pay attention to.


Accommodating Human Variability in Human-Robot Teams through Theory of Mind

AAAI Conferences

The variability of human behavior during plan execution poses a difficult challenge for human-robot teams. In this paper, we use the concepts of theory of mind to enable robots to account for two sources of human variability during team operation. When faced with an unexpected action by a human teammate, a robot uses a simulation analysis of different hypothetical cognitive models of the human to identify the most likely cause for the human's behavior. This allows the cognitive robot to account for variances due to both different knowledge and beliefs about the world, as well as different possible paths the human could take with a given set of knowledge and beliefs. An experiment showed that cognitive robots equipped with this functionality are viewed as both more natural and intelligent teammates, compared to both robots who either say nothing when presented with human variability, and robots who simply point out any discrepancies between the human's expected, and actual, behavior. Overall, this analysis leads to an effective, general approach for determining what thought process is leading to a human's actions.


Scaling Up Optimal Heuristic Search in Dec-POMDPs via Incremental Expansion

AAAI Conferences

Planning under uncertainty for multiagent systems can be formalized as a decentralized partially observable Markov decision process. We advance the state of the art for optimal solution of this model, building on the Multiagent A* heuristic search method. A key insight is that we can avoid the full expansion of a search node that generates a number of children that is doubly exponential in the node's depth. Instead, we incrementally expand the children only when a next child might have the highest heuristic value. We target a subsequent bottleneck by introducing a more memory-efficient representation for our heuristic functions. Proof is given that the resulting algorithm is correct and experiments demonstrate a significant speedup over the state of the art, allowing for optimal solutions over longer horizons for many benchmark problems.


Planning with SAT, Admissible Heuristics and A*

AAAI Conferences

We study the relationship between optimal planning algorithms, in the form of (iterative deepening) A* with (forward) state-space search, and the reduction of the problem to SAT. Our results establish a strict dominance relation between the two approaches: any iterative deepening A* search can be efficiently simulated in the SAT framework, assuming that the heuristic has been encoded in the SAT problem, but the opposite is not possible as A* and IDA* searches sometimes take exponentially longer.


Goal Recognition over POMDPs: Inferring the Intention of a POMDP Agent

AAAI Conferences

Plan recognition is the problem of inferring the goals and plans of an agent from partial observations of her behavior. Recently, it has been shown that the problem can be formulated and solved using planners, reducing plan recognition to plan generation. In this work, we extend this model-based approach to plan recognition to the POMDP setting, where actions are stochastic and states are partially observable. The task is to infer a probability distribution over the possible goals of an agent whose behavior results from a POMDP model. The POMDP model is shared between agent and observer except for the true goal of the agent that is hidden to the observer. The observations are action sequences O that may contain gaps as some or even most of the actions done by the agent may not be observed. We show that the posterior goal distribution P ( G | O ) can be computed from the value function V G ( b ) over beliefs b  generated by the POMDP planner for each possible goal G. Some extensions of the basic framework are discussed, and a number of experiments are reported.


Computing Infinite Plans for LTL Goals Using a Classical Planner

AAAI Conferences

Classical planning has been notably successful in synthesizing finite plans to achieve states where propositional goals hold. In the last few years, classical planning has also been extended to incorporate temporally extended goals, expressed in temporal logics such as LTL, to impose restrictions on the state sequences generated by finite plans. In this work, we take the next step and consider the computation of infinite plans for achieving arbitrary LTL goals. We show that infinite plans can also be obtained efficiently by calling a classical planner once over a classical planning encoding that represents and extends the composition of the planning domain and the Buchi automaton representing the goal. This compilation scheme has been implemented and a number of experiments are reported.


Large Neighborhood Search and Adaptive Randomized Decompositions for Flexible Jobshop Scheduling

AAAI Conferences

This paper considers a constraint-based scheduling approach to the flexible jobshop, a generalization of the traditional jobshop scheduling where activities have a choice of machines. It studies both large neighborhood (LNS) and adaptive randomized decomposition (ARD) schemes, using random, temporal, and machine decompositions. Empirical results on standard benchmarks show that, within 5 minutes, both LNS and ARD produce many new best solutions and are about 0.5% in average from the best-known solutions. Moreover, over longer runtimes, they improve 60% of the best-known solutions and match the remaining ones. The empirical results also show the importance of hybrid decompositions in LNS and ARD.