Ant colony optimization (ACO) algorithms are computational problem-solving methods that are inspired by the complex behaviors of ant colonies; specifically, the ways in which ants interact with each other and their environment to optimize the overall performance of the ant colony. Our eventual goal is to develop and experiment with ACO methods that can more effectively adapt to dynamically changing environments and problems. We describe biological ant systems and the dynamics of their environments and behaviors. We then introduce a family of dynamic ACO algorithms that can handle dynamic modifications of their inputs. We report empirical results, showing that dynamic ACO algorithms can effectively adapt to time-varying environments.

Given the challenges of modeling multi-scale social phenomena, hybrids may hold the key to unlocking social complexity dynamics. We introduce hybrid system modeling from engineering, as a means to capture complex dynamics within interacting, multi-scale, and global social systems. Whereby hybrid modeling is used in industrial processes and automated control systems, this research uses world cup soccer tournament simulations to demonstrate successful applications. Agent-based modeling for soccer games and cellular automatons for crowd and bettor emotional reactions are modeled on each side of a playing field. A predator-prey theoretical approach is applied with self-organizing soccer teams represented as predators and the soccer ball as prey. Simulations of multiple soccer tournaments of thirty-two teams were conducted with pre-game betting and without betting as a pseudo-control measure. Tournaments conducted with pre-game betting resulted in the final tournament games having the wining team demonstrating strong defensive playing styles and scoring by a large margin. Divergence of playing styles did not develop in tournaments without pre-game betting. Hybrids offer a means to explore complexity with evolutionary learning by players, corresponding emotional reactions of spectators, and betting interacting, resulting in patterns of emergent behavior and unique evolutionary behavioral responses to complexity.

In this paper we describe a complex adaptive systems model of interactions between coupled human and natural system. We use learning classifier systems to create adaptive agents in a simulation of the Maine lobster fishery to explore the relationships among ecological, economic, and social characteristics. Our hypothesis is that the cost of information and learning drives agents' decisions to compete or co-operate and, consequently, the emergence of long-term relationships. Initial results provide tentative support for the hypothesis and the ability of this model to provide insight into the dynamics of individual interactions and the social relationships that emerge from those interactions.

This research aims to define a novel framework to employ engineering and mathematical models to study adaptive dynamics in heterarchial systems. This multi-profile descriptive platform and modeling approach is developed as a composite of conceptual behaviors and structural entity aspects of engineered complex adaptive systems (ECAS). While the US electric power system will be utilized for demonstration and validation, the framework has applicability to the general class of ECASs that are artificially created but highly interactive with natural and behavioral sciences. Conditioned on parameterization of the framework, a theorem will be presented to calibrate current structure and predict future dynamic behaviors of an ECAS. We analyze decentralized heterarchial ECASs to infer emergent behavior of the components, and evolution processes and adaptations of the whole system.

Skeptics tend not to be the first to jump on the next band- wagon. In quite a few areas of science, simulations and Com- plex Adaptive Systems (CAS) has been the bandwagon in question. This paper intends to reach out to the skeptics and convince them to hop-on; take over the controls and make the wagon do a U-turn and aim for the established scientific theories. The argument is that simulation techniques, such as Agent- Based Modelling (ABM), may possibly be epistemically problematic as one sets out to strongly corroborate theories concerned with our overly complex real world. However, us- ing the same techniques to explore the robustness of (or to falsify) existing abstract and idealised mathematical models will be to be epistemically uncomplicated. This allows us to study the effects of reintroduction of real-world traits, such as autonomy and heterogeneity that was previously sacrificed for mathematical tractability.

Millions of people globally have been forcibly displaced from their homes due to reasons beyond their control such as conflict, political upheaval, and environmental catastrophes. In many cases, these forced migrants seek temporary refuge in camps managed by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Although responsibility for refugees’ well-being within camps belongs mainly to the NGOs and host government, the density of the camp population and lack of resources of service providers leads to a high degree of insecurity. Building off successful models of mHealth, or utilizing mobile technologies to address healthcare needs, this paper explores the possibility of using communication technologies to address personal security issues. Using agent based modeling techniques, this paper examines the ways in which information about incidents of violence are communicated through a closed population. In this way, the authors advocate for the use of mobile phones in an mSecurity context that empowers forced migrants to become active members in reducing incidents of violence within refugee and internally displaced persons camps.

Broadly speaking, information has something to do with order or organization within a system of elements. The thermodynamic concept of entropy is also associated with such systems, although in an inverse relationship. When we attempt to put these two apparently coordinated schemas of order and disorder together, all kinds of difficulties arise. I will briefly examine contemporary efforts to unify these two ways of conceiving order and show that they are substantially incompatible. In this process I will draw some distinctions that will lead to a broader reconciliation of the concepts of order and information. I will then attempt to re-evaluate the fundamental models behind these dissonant traditions for formulating order in an attempt to reframe a synthesis of conceptual structures that are mutually reconcilable. I will try to show that such a synthesis can finally make sense of the stubborn inconsistencies that persist in the ways Newtonian dynamics, thermodynamics and biology utilize the implicitly conflicting arrows of time.

International networks, although highly efficient, may produce surprising threshold effects that shift costs to geographically distant locations. International utility, transportation, and information networks facilitate the efficient flow of information, energy, goods and people. These networks exhibit a scale-free network structure with a few large “hubs”. Yet their efficiency belies their lack of robustness. Because such networks transcend national boundaries, furthermore, disruptions to the network in one geographic region may have profound economic and national security costs for countries in another region. To illustrate how complex networks may transmit costs among countries, this paper builds an agent-based model (ABM) of the international air transportation system. The ABM employs a genetic algorithm to identify “small” disruptions that produce cascading network failures. The study makes two contributions. First, it demonstrates how some complex networks evolve into network structures that trade off robustness for efficiency. Second, it illustrates how researchers can combine agent-based modeling, evolutionary computation, and network analysis to simulate differing failure modes for global networks. This convergence of simulation methodologies characterizes the emerging field of computational social science.

Simulation techniques have long sustained research in various domains of physical, biological, and social sciences. Currently, humanists are exploring the usefulness of simulations for addressing various research questions. The nature and challenges of this enterprise are presented here in respect to collaborative work, the relation of humanities to the sciences, the transformative nature of digital methods of research within the humanities. This article describes a coordinated attempt to pursue these issues via a Summer Institute funded by the National Endowment for the Humanities, and briefly notes the projects of three of the Institute’s participants. Their work is described in detail elsewhere within this volume.

This article presents a method for using outcome matrices for social phrase selection. An outcome matrix is a computational representation of interaction often used to represent a social decision problem. Typically an outcome matrix lists the potential actions that a robot or agent might select and how the selection of each possible action will impact both the agent and their interactive partner. Here we examine the possibility of replacing the social actions listed in a matrix with phrases that could be spoken by the robot. We show that doing so allows one to utilize several tools from interdependence theory and game theory.