We consider the problem of reconstructing a temporal discrete sequence of multidimensional real vectors when part of the data is missing, under the assumption that the sequence was generated by a continuous process. Aparticular case of this problem is multivariate regression, which is very difficult when the underlying mapping is one-to-many. We propose analgorithm based on a joint probability model of the variables of interest, implemented using a nonlinear latent variable model. Each point in the sequence is potentially reconstructed as any of the modes of the conditional distribution of the missing variables given the present variables (computed using an exhaustive mode search in a Gaussian mixture). Modeselection is determined by a dynamic programming search that minimises a geometric measure of the reconstructed sequence, derived fromcontinuity constraints. We illustrate the algorithm with a toy example and apply it to a real-world inverse problem, the acoustic-toarticulatory mapping.The results show that the algorithm outperforms conditional mean imputation and multilayer perceptrons. 1 Definition of the problem

A fundamental problem with the modeling of chaotic time series data is that minimizing short-term prediction errors does not guarantee a match between the reconstructed attractors of model and experiments. We introduce a modeling paradigm that simultaneously learns to short-tenn predict and to locate the outlines of the attractor by a new way of nonlinear principal component analysis. Closed-loop predictions are constrained to stay within these outlines, to prevent divergence from the attractor. Learning is exceptionally fast: parameter estimation for the 1000 sample laser data from the 1991 Santa Fe time series competition took less than a minute on a 166 MHz Pentium PC.

A very simple model of two reciprocally connected attractor neural networks isstudied analytically in situations similar to those encountered in delay match-to-sample tasks with intervening stimuli and in tasks of memory guided attention. The model qualitatively reproduces many of the experimental data on these types of tasks and provides a framework for the understanding of the experimental observations in the context of the attractor neural network scenario.

Stochastic meta-descent (SMD) is a new technique for online adaptation oflocal learning rates in arbitrary twice-differentiable systems. Like matrix momentum it uses full second-order information while retaining O(n) computational complexity by exploiting the efficient computation of Hessian-vector products. Here we apply SMD to independent component analysis, and employ the resulting algorithmfor the blind separation of time-varying mixtures. By matching individual learning rates to the rate of change in each source signal's mixture coefficients, our technique is capable of simultaneously trackingsources that move at very different, a priori unknown speeds. 1 Introduction Independent component analysis (ICA) methods are typically run in batch mode in order to keep the stochasticity of the empirical gradient low. Often this is combined with a global learning rate annealing scheme that negotiates the tradeoff between fast convergence and good asymptotic performance.

There are many hierarchical clustering algorithms available, but these lack a firm statistical basis. Here we set up a hierarchical probabilistic mixture model, where data is generated in a hierarchical tree-structured manner. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are demonstrated which can be used to sample from the posterior distribution over trees containing variable numbers of hidden units.

We present a variational Bayesian method for model selection over families of kernels classifiers like Support Vector machines or Gaussian processes.The algorithm needs no user interaction and is able to adapt a large number of kernel parameters to given data without having to sacrifice training cases for validation. This opens the possibility touse sophisticated families of kernels in situations where the small "standard kernel" classes are clearly inappropriate. We relate the method to other work done on Gaussian processes and clarify the relation between Support Vector machines and certain Gaussian process models. 1 Introduction Bayesian techniques have been widely and successfully used in the neural networks and statistics community and are appealing because of their conceptual simplicity, generality and consistency with which they solve learning problems. In this paper we present a new method for applying the Bayesian methodology to Support Vector machines. We will briefly review Gaussian Process and Support Vector classification in this section and clarify their relationship by pointing out the common roots. Although we focus on classification here, it is straightforward to apply the methods to regression problems as well. In section 2 we introduce our algorithm and show relations to existing methods. Finally, we present experimental results in section 3 and close with a discussion in section 4. Let X be a measure space (e.g.

In this article we study the effects of introducing structure in the input distribution of the data to be learnt by a simple perceptron. We determine the learning curves within the framework of Statistical Mechanics.Stepwise generalization occurs as a function of the number of examples when the distribution of patterns is highly anisotropic. Although extremely simple, the model seems to capture therelevant features of a class of Support Vector Machines which was recently shown to present this behavior.

We present a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for inferring the hidden psychological state (or neural activity) during single trial tMRI activation experimentswith blocked task paradigms. Inference is based on Bayesian methodology, using a combination of analytical and a variety of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques. The advantage ofthis method is that detection of short time learning effects between repeated trials is possible since inference is based only on single trial experiments.

In a Bayesian mixture model it is not necessary a priori to limit the number ofcomponents to be finite. In this paper an infinite Gaussian mixture model is presented which neatly sidesteps the difficult problem of finding the"right" number of mixture components. Inference in the model is done using an efficient parameter-free Markov Chain that relies entirely on Gibbs sampling.

Dual estimation refers to the problem of simultaneously estimating the state of a dynamic system and the model which gives rise to the dynamics.